Game recap
Bengals @ Vikings
2025 Wk 3 · MIN 48, CIN 10
This is the floor of the entire season's data — out of every team-game in 2025 with meaningful play volume, this is the single worst offensive showing. That context turns a 38-point loss from 'a bad day' into 'the worst day, full stop.'
Cincinnati's -0.787 EPA/play is the worst offensive performance by any team in 2025
RareWorst single-game offensive EPA/play, 2025 (minimum 40 plays)
| Rank | Matchup | Team | Plays | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN @ MIN | CIN | 52 | -0.787 |
| 2 | MIN @ SEA (Wk 13) | MIN | 49 | -0.703 |
| 3 | MIA @ CLE | MIA | 57 | -0.558 |
| 4 | HOU @ PIT (WC) | PIT | 56 | -0.544 |
| 5 | LAC @ JAX | LAC | 45 | -0.511 |
No team offense in any 2025 game (minimum 40 plays) was less efficient than Cincinnati was in this loss. Its -0.787 EPA/play is worse than the next-closest game (Minnesota's own -0.703 in a separate Week 13 game) by a clear margin.
Why it matters. This is the floor of the entire season's data — out of every team-game in 2025 with meaningful play volume, this is the single worst offensive showing. That context turns a 38-point loss from 'a bad day' into 'the worst day, full stop.'
Cincinnati's offense fell 0.819 EPA/play below its own season average — the largest collapse here
ComparisonIn-game EPA/play vs each team's 2025 season average (this game excluded)
| Team | This game EPA/play | This game success% | Season avg EPA/play | Season NFL rank | Delta vs own average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | -0.787 | 28.8% | 0.032 | 19th | -0.819 |
| MIN | 0.121 | 51.7% | -0.131 | 28th | +0.252 |
Cincinnati was a middling 19th-ranked offense across its other 15 games (0.032 EPA/play). In this game it fell to -0.787, a swing of -0.819 — nearly a full point of EPA per play below its own baseline. Minnesota, meanwhile, was the NFL's 28th-ranked offense on the year, yet outplayed its own average by +0.252 here.
Why it matters. A -0.819 same-game deviation is the largest in this entire pilot sample of games — for context, most single-game swings in these fact sets run 0.1 to 0.4 in either direction. This wasn't Cincinnati looking merely 'off,' it was a near-total statistical outlier relative to its own normal level.
Cincinnati was worse in the first half than its own game average — Minnesota led 31-3 by halftime
SplitScore at end of each quarter (MIN home, CIN away)
| Qtr | MIN | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 0 |
| 2 | 31 | 3 |
| 3 | 48 | 3 |
| 4 | 48 | 10 |
First half vs second half efficiency
| Team | Half | Plays | EPA/play | Success% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | H1 | 31 | -1.041 | 25.8% |
| CIN | H2 | 21 | -0.413 | 33.3% |
| MIN | H1 | 30 | 0.057 | 53.3% |
| MIN | H2 | 28 | 0.190 | 50.0% |
Cincinnati's first-half EPA/play of -1.041 is even worse than its already-historic full-game number, meaning the disaster was front-loaded — Minnesota had built a 31-3 lead by intermission and led 48-3 after three quarters before Cincinnati's only touchdown of the day came in garbage time.
Why it matters. The fact that Cincinnati's collapse was concentrated in the first half (-1.041) rather than spread evenly suggests specific early breakdowns (turnovers, explosive plays allowed) rather than a slow across-the-board decline — the game was effectively decided by intermission.
Minnesota's 38-point margin is the largest victory margin of the 2025 NFL season
RareLargest 2025 victory margins
| Rank | Matchup | Score | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN @ MIN | MIN 48, CIN 10 | 38 |
| 2 | SF @ SEA (DIV) | SEA 41, SF 6 | 35 |
| 3 | HOU @ BAL | BAL 10, HOU 44 | 34 |
| 4 | LV @ IND | IND 40, LV 6 | 34 |
| 5 | TEN @ JAX | JAX 41, TEN 7 | 34 |
No 2025 game, regular season or playoffs, was decided by more than Minnesota's 38-point win over Cincinnati.
Why it matters. A margin this size, at the top of a 285-game season, is the clearest possible marker that this specific Sunday represented a total mismatch rather than a competitive game that got away late.
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