The FanIQ Laws
Football, one checkable claim at a time
A law is a single claim about how football works, run against 25 seasons of play-by-play and graded on how often the seasons agree. Every one of them is listed here with its grade, and the same rules run inside the FanIQ app.
Nine laws are published in full here. The rest are in the app, with the evidence.
Start with the myths : the claims fans repeat that the record does not support.
How games are won Score, clock, field position, and the calls that move them.
The double dip is real Holds up In the app The field goal harvest Holds up In the app Not all halftime leads are equal Holds up In the app The Hail Mary is a long shot Holds up In the app Points pile up as the half ends Holds up In the app Field position is destiny Holds up In the app The first quarter is the quiet one Holds up In the app A 0-0 first quarter is normal Holds up In the app Silent second halves happen weekly Holds up In the app The third quarter nap is real Holds up In the app Early-down passing beats early-down running Holds up In the app A missed long kick is a gift Holds up In the app Declined flags follow the gain Holds up In the app One flag in eight never counts Holds up In the app No flag beats six points Holds up In the app Touchdowns vanish to flags weekly Holds up In the app Every yard costs conversion chances Holds up In the app Fourth and one is a yes Holds up Full rule Midfield is still underplayed Holds up In the app Own territory is still punt country Holds up In the app Keep it on the ground on fourth and short Holds up In the app The real go zone Holds up In the app The cliff between one yard and two Holds up In the app A return score flips the game Holds up In the app Defensive flags are the expensive ones Holds up In the app Placement beats distance Holds up In the app Mass over space at the goal line Holds up In the app Sacks are where fumbles live Holds up In the app A sack is not a turnover Holds up In the app The best play nobody can call Holds up In the app Third and long feeds the rush Holds up In the app The answer drive myth Holds up In the app Shotgun tips the pass Holds up In the app When a team is behind with the clock running out before halftime or the end of the game, it all but abandons the run Holds up In the app The fumble hurts more than the pick Holds up In the app The lateral is a distress signal Holds up In the app The easiest decline in football Holds up In the app Moving the chains beats yards per carry Holds up In the app Third downs are won on first down Holds up In the app Momentum is just field position Holds up In the app Big plays follow winning, not the reverse Holds up In the app Coaches fake where failure is cheap Holds up In the app The kneel-down window is tiny Holds up In the app Offsetting flags erase themselves Holds up In the app The backed-up punt myth Holds up In the app The fake field goal flops Holds up In the app The trick pass points both ways Holds up In the app Desperation pays worse returns Holds up In the app Coaches still kick when they should go Holds up In the app Fakes work by choice, not by prayer Holds up In the app The keep converts two point tries Holds up In the app The worn-down defense myth Holds up In the app The scripted opener myth Holds up In the app A great play, not a great plan Holds up In the app The deep shot pays Holds up In the app Picks live downfield Holds up In the app Attack the middle of the field Holds up In the app First-and-ten still leans run Holds up In the app The spike is cheap insurance Holds up In the app A 35-yard field goal is roughly the same make-or-miss proposition whether it happens in the first quarter of a blowout or the final minutes of a one-score game Holds up In the app Pretty play, worse chances Holds up In the app The called keep stays on schedule Holds up In the app The open field keep tax Holds up In the app The quarterback fumble tax Holds up In the app The goal line keep delivers Holds up In the app The scramble wins, the called run loses Holds up In the app Short yardage is QB keep country Holds up In the app The surprise keeper myth Holds up In the app The end zone beats the chip shot Holds up In the app Punting from the 35 is the worst call Holds up In the app Three receivers is the base offense Holds up In the app The blitz buys chaos, not points Holds up In the app When the offense is stuck needing a longer gain on third or fourth down, defenses come after the quarterback with extra rushers far more often than they do on a fresh first down Holds up In the app Late runs with the lead are right Holds up In the app The popular idea is that a defense protecting a lead late in the half would send extra rushers to close the door fast Holds up In the app Garbage time is volume, not a gift Holds up In the app Heavy looks draw heavy boxes Holds up In the app Throwing out of heavy sets pays Holds up In the app Tempo carries a small edge Holds up In the app Coaches hate calling the same thing twice Holds up In the app The surprise pass works best Holds up In the app Personnel tips the play call Holds up In the app When the offense only needs a yard to move the chains, everyone on the field knows a run is likely, so the defense crowds the line of scrimmage far more than it normally would Holds up In the app A stacked box is a trade, not a win Holds up In the app The two-minute drill looks unstoppable on TV, but the numbers say the opposite: teams are forced to throw deeper into defenses built to keep everything in front, and completions get harder, not easier Holds up In the app Under-center passes hit harder Holds up In the app The sneak is nearly a cheat code Holds up In the app Ten years ago, fourth and one meant the punt team Holds up In the app The 'base defense' listed in the media guide is nearly extinct Holds up In the app Flags are more habit than luck Mixed In the app Sack rate sticks more than folklore says Mixed In the app Teams, coaches, and eras What repeats about a team from one season to the next, and what the league itself has changed.
Players Body type, career shape, availability, and the traits that travel.
January What the bracket rewards, and what it forgets.
The draft Where NFL teams find value, and where they pay for a name.
Fantasy football Draft value, weekly lineups, stacking, scoring formats, and trades.
The rules of the game
Four claims sit underneath all of the others and get no grade, because they are how football is defined rather than something a season could disagree with:
You get four tries to move the ball ten yards. Get there and you start over. Miss and the other team gets the ball.
To become champion, a team has to keep winning single-elimination games until there are none left to play.
Whoever puts more points on the board wins. That is the whole game.
In PPR leagues, every catch is worth a point, no matter how short. That is on top of points for yards and touchdowns.
FanIQ runs these rules on the players, teams, and games you are actually looking at, and shows its work every time.
Get FanIQ free Open in FanIQ