Game recap
Ravens @ Chiefs
2025 Wk 4 · KC 37, BAL 20
The specific shape of this game — trailing early, then a decisive second-quarter surge — separates a 'never in doubt' blowout from what was actually a response to adversity; Kansas City had to answer the road team's early punch before pulling away.
Kansas City trailed 3-7 after one quarter, then outscored Baltimore 34-13 the rest of the way
TrendScore at end of each quarter (KC home, BAL away)
| Qtr | KC | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | 20 | 7 |
| 3 | 30 | 13 |
| 4 | 37 | 20 |
Baltimore's only lead of the game came after the first quarter. Kansas City then reeled off 17 unanswered points in the second quarter alone, turning a 3-7 deficit into a 20-7 halftime lead, and never let Baltimore closer than 10 the rest of the way.
Why it matters. The specific shape of this game — trailing early, then a decisive second-quarter surge — separates a 'never in doubt' blowout from what was actually a response to adversity; Kansas City had to answer the road team's early punch before pulling away.
Kansas City played +0.210 EPA/play above its own season average; Baltimore fell -0.103 below its own
ComparisonIn-game EPA/play vs each team's 2025 season average (this game excluded)
| Team | This game EPA/play | This game success% | Season avg EPA/play | Season NFL rank | Delta vs own average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | -0.063 | 45.3% | 0.040 | 12th | -0.103 |
| KC | 0.231 | 44.1% | 0.021 | 11th | +0.210 |
Both offenses ranked in the league's middle tier for the season (Baltimore 12th, Kansas City 11th by EPA/play), so this wasn't a mismatch on paper. On the day, Kansas City simply played its best football of the sample while Baltimore played below its own average.
Why it matters. When two similarly-ranked offenses meet, the game usually comes down to which one deviates further from its baseline on that day — here Kansas City's swing (+0.210) more than doubled the gap created by Baltimore's dip (-0.103), which explains a 17-point final margin between two comparable units.
Kansas City has beaten Baltimore in 7 of their last 10 meetings, including a Super Bowl run
MilestoneKC-BAL last 10 meetings
| Season | Game type | Away | Home | Away Score | Home Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | WC | BAL | KC | 30 | 7 | BAL |
| 2012 | REG | BAL | KC | 9 | 6 | BAL |
| 2015 | REG | KC | BAL | 34 | 14 | KC |
| 2018 | REG | BAL | KC | 24 | 27 | KC |
| 2019 | REG | BAL | KC | 28 | 33 | KC |
| 2020 | REG | KC | BAL | 34 | 20 | KC |
| 2021 | REG | KC | BAL | 35 | 36 | BAL |
| 2023 | CON | KC | BAL | 17 | 10 | KC |
| 2024 | REG | BAL | KC | 20 | 27 | KC |
| 2025 | REG | BAL | KC | 20 | 37 | KC |
Kansas City has won 7 of the last 10 meetings with Baltimore, including the 2023 AFC Championship Game on the way to a Super Bowl title. Baltimore's only wins in this stretch came in 2012 (a defensive struggle), 2010 (a Wild Card blowout in KC's favor for Baltimore), and the 2021 shootout.
Why it matters. A 7-3 edge across a decade against a perennial contender is a genuinely earned advantage, not a small-sample fluke — and the fact that one of those 7 wins came in a conference title game raises the pressure of the pattern beyond regular-season noise.
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