Game recap
Chiefs @ Titans
2025 Wk 16 · TEN 26, KC 9
A middling offense playing merely average football is enough to win when the other side's respected offense implodes by more than a third of a point per play — this is a story about Kansas City's collapse at least as much as Tennessee's modest step up.
Tennessee's offense, the NFL's 30th-ranked unit, outplayed its own season average here
ComparisonIn-game EPA/play vs each team's 2025 season average (this game excluded)
| Team | This game EPA/play | This game success% | Season avg EPA/play | Season NFL rank | Delta vs own average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | -0.313 | 34.9% | 0.050 | 11th | -0.363 |
| TEN | 0.045 | 44.1% | -0.175 | 30th | +0.220 |
Tennessee finished 2025 with the league's 3rd-worst offense by EPA/play (-0.175). Against Kansas City it produced a modest but positive 0.045 — a +0.220 jump over its own norm. Meanwhile Kansas City, a top-12 offense on the year, collapsed to -0.313, its own worst kind of showing.
Why it matters. A middling offense playing merely average football is enough to win when the other side's respected offense implodes by more than a third of a point per play — this is a story about Kansas City's collapse at least as much as Tennessee's modest step up.
Kansas City never led and got worse, not better, after halftime
SplitScore at end of each quarter (TEN home, KC away)
| Qtr | TEN | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 9 | 6 |
| 3 | 16 | 9 |
| 4 | 26 | 9 |
First half vs second half efficiency
| Team | Half | Plays | EPA/play | Success% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | H1 | 27 | -0.284 | 40.7% |
| KC | H2 | 16 | -0.360 | 25.0% |
| TEN | H1 | 32 | -0.085 | 46.9% |
| TEN | H2 | 36 | 0.160 | 41.7% |
Kansas City's offense was already underwater in the first half (-0.284 EPA/play) and got worse in the second (-0.360, with success rate collapsing to 25%). Tennessee, meanwhile, actually improved after halftime as Kansas City's offense stalled out entirely down the stretch.
Why it matters. A team that gets worse after halftime, rather than making an adjustment, signals the problem wasn't matchup-specific or fixable in-game — Kansas City had two full quarters to respond and instead trended further from its season-average performance.
Tennessee is 7-3 against Kansas City in their last 10 meetings, despite the gap in team fortunes
MilestoneKC-TEN last 10 meetings
| Season | Away | Home | Away Score | Home Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | TEN | KC | 26 | 17 | TEN |
| 2008 | TEN | KC | 34 | 10 | TEN |
| 2010 | TEN | KC | 14 | 34 | KC |
| 2013 | KC | TEN | 26 | 17 | KC |
| 2014 | TEN | KC | 26 | 10 | TEN |
| 2016 | TEN | KC | 19 | 17 | TEN |
| 2019 | KC | TEN | 32 | 35 | TEN |
| 2021 | KC | TEN | 3 | 27 | TEN |
| 2022 | TEN | KC | 17 | 20 | KC |
| 2025 | KC | TEN | 9 | 26 | TEN |
Tennessee has now won 7 of the last 10 meetings with Kansas City, including this one, spanning a period when Kansas City made three Super Bowls. This particular matchup has quietly not followed the two franchises' overall trajectories.
Why it matters. The overall gap between these franchises' recent success (Kansas City's Super Bowl runs vs Tennessee's rebuilding years) makes a 7-3 Titans edge in the head-to-head genuinely counterintuitive — it's a reminder that team-wide strength and a specific matchup history don't always track together.
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