Game recap
Patriots @ Broncos
Conference Championship · 2025 · DEN 7, NE 10
Conference Championship games are typically played by two of the league's better rosters, which usually means more scoring, not less — landing in a tie for the season's 2nd-lowest-scoring game at this stage is a genuinely unusual defensive environment for the round.
17 combined points ties for the 2nd-lowest-scoring game of 2025 — in a title game
RareLowest-scoring 2025 games (combined points)
| Rank | Matchup | Score | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA @ SF (Wk 18) | SF 3, SEA 13 | 16 |
| 2 (tie) | LV @ DEN | DEN 10, LV 7 | 17 |
| 2 (tie) | PHI @ GB | GB 7, PHI 10 | 17 |
| 2 (tie) | NE @ DEN (CON) | DEN 7, NE 10 | 17 |
Only one 2025 game produced fewer combined points than this AFC Championship — a 16-point regular-season game between Seattle and San Francisco. This conference title game's 17 combined points ties for the 2nd-lowest of the entire 285-game season.
Why it matters. Conference Championship games are typically played by two of the league's better rosters, which usually means more scoring, not less — landing in a tie for the season's 2nd-lowest-scoring game at this stage is a genuinely unusual defensive environment for the round.
New England had lost its two previous AFC title games with Denver. This one flipped.
MilestoneNE-DEN Conference Championship meetings on file
| Season | Away | Home | Away Score | Home Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | NE | DEN | 16 | 26 | DEN |
| 2015 | NE | DEN | 18 | 20 | DEN |
| 2025 | NE | DEN | 10 | 7 | NE |
Denver won both of the previous AFC Championship Games between these two franchises on file (2013 and 2015 seasons), both at home. In 2025, New England went to Denver for a third Conference Championship meeting and won 10-7 — its first title-game win over Denver in this database.
Why it matters. A specific, repeatable pattern (Denver winning AFC title games against this exact opponent, at home, twice) breaking on the third try is a meaningful data point — it's not a generic 'New England won a game,' it's New England overcoming a matchup and stage that had specifically gone against it before.
The NFL's #1-ranked offense was held 0.3 EPA/play below its own standard — and still won
ComparisonIn-game EPA/play vs each team's 2025 regular-season average
| Team | This game EPA/play | This game success% | Season avg EPA/play | Season NFL rank | Delta vs own average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | -0.313 | 29.3% | 0.050 | 10th | -0.363 |
| NE | -0.138 | 31.1% | 0.158 | 1st | -0.296 |
New England finished the regular season as the NFL's #1 offense by EPA/play (0.158). In this game its offense produced -0.138, a drop of nearly 0.3 EPA/play below its own standard — and it still won, because Denver's 10th-ranked offense fell even further below its own baseline (-0.363).
Why it matters. This is a game won by whichever offense collapsed less, not by either offense performing well — the league's best offensive unit all season looked nothing like itself, which is the clearest evidence that Conference Championship weekend defenses (and weather, and pressure) can flatten even elite units.
Denver's offense got worse as the game went on, bottoming out at -0.604 EPA/play in the second half
SplitScore at end of each quarter (DEN home, NE away)
| Qtr | DEN | NE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 0 |
| 2 | 7 | 7 |
| 3 | 7 | 10 |
| 4 | 7 | 10 |
First half vs second half efficiency
| Team | Half | Plays | EPA/play | Success% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | H1 | 41 | -0.192 | 36.6% |
| DEN | H2 | 17 | -0.604 | 11.8% |
| NE | H1 | 26 | -0.216 | 30.8% |
| NE | H2 | 35 | -0.080 | 31.4% |
Denver led 7-0 after the first quarter but scored no more points the rest of the game. Its offense, already inefficient in the first half (-0.192 EPA/play), collapsed to -0.604 in the second half with a success rate of just 11.8% across 17 plays. New England's offense was also inefficient all game but stayed relatively more stable, and its 4th-quarter score was the game's final points.
Why it matters. A defense holding an opponent scoreless for three full quarters (Denver's last points came in the 1st) while that opponent's own efficiency craters to an 11.8% success rate is the signature of a genuine defensive stranglehold, not just a low-scoring game by chance.
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