Game recap

Bills @ Texans

2026 Wk 1 · HOU 31, BUF 36

Passing yards and rushing touchdowns come from different skills, and a game that combines 300 through the air with two scores on the ground needs both on the same afternoon. Allen has produced almost a third of the league's such games across 27 seasons, and all seven came from 2020 onward, so this is a standing feature of Buffalo's offense rather than a one-off. In this game the two rushing scores were the two lead changes Buffalo took back in the second quarter.

FanIQ Research · September 14, 2026 · 7 facts, every one from the play-by-play

Seven games of 300 pass yards, 2 pass TDs and 2 rush TDs for Josh Allen. No other QB since 1999 has more than two.

Rare

Quarterback games with 300+ passing yards, 2+ passing TDs and 2+ rushing TDs, 1999-2026 (regular season and playoffs)

Quarterback	Games
Josh Allen	7
Aaron Rodgers	2
Cam Newton	2
11 other quarterbacks	1 each

Allen's seven

Season	Wk	Opp	Pass yds	Pass TD	Rush TD	INT
2020	15	DEN	359	2	2	0
2023	12	PHI	339	2	2	1
2024	14	LA	342	3	3	0
2024	15	DET	362	2	2	0
2025	1	BAL	394	2	2	0
2025	11	TB	317	3	3	2
2026	1	HOU	334	2	2	0

Allen threw for 334 yards, hit DJ Moore for a 43 yard touchdown and Josh Palmer for the 34 yard winner, and ran for a 21 yard score and a 1 yard score. Since 1999 there have been 22 games in which a quarterback reached 300 passing yards with two passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns, by 14 different passers. Allen owns seven of the 22. Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton are next with two each.

Why it matters. Passing yards and rushing touchdowns come from different skills, and a game that combines 300 through the air with two scores on the ground needs both on the same afternoon. Allen has produced almost a third of the league's such games across 27 seasons, and all seven came from 2020 onward, so this is a standing feature of Buffalo's offense rather than a one-off. In this game the two rushing scores were the two lead changes Buffalo took back in the second quarter.

Eight lead changes, the last one with 1:41 left. Only 15 games since 1999 have flipped that many times.

Trend

Every lead change

Qtr	Clock	Play	Score after
1	0:37	Montgomery 1-yd TD run	HOU 7, BUF 3
2	12:57	Allen 21-yd TD run	BUF 10, HOU 7
2	4:53	Montgomery 18-yd TD run	HOU 14, BUF 10
2	4:02	Allen 1-yd TD run	BUF 17, HOU 14
4	13:39	Stroud 7-yd TD pass to Montgomery	HOU 28, BUF 27
4	10:36	Bass 33-yd FG	BUF 30, HOU 28
4	6:48	Fairbairn 58-yd FG	HOU 31, BUF 30
4	1:41	Allen 34-yd TD pass to Palmer	BUF 36, HOU 31

Games with 8 or more lead changes, 1999-2026

Season	Wk	Game	Score	Lead changes
2011	17	DET @ GB	GB 45, DET 41	11
2025	11	TB @ BUF	BUF 44, TB 32	9
2018	14	NE @ MIA	MIA 34, NE 33	9
2009	15	IND @ JAX	IND 35, JAX 31	9
2026	1	BUF @ HOU	BUF 36, HOU 31	8
2025	18	IND @ HOU	HOU 38, IND 30	8
2023	7	CLE @ IND	CLE 39, IND 38	8
2019	15	PHI @ WAS	PHI 37, WAS 27	8
2018	3	NO @ ATL	NO 43, ATL 37	8
2013	12	LAC @ KC	LAC 41, KC 38	8
2011	14	NYG @ DAL	NYG 37, DAL 34	8
2009	2	NYG @ DAL	NYG 33, DAL 31	8
2002	2	BUF @ MIN	BUF 45, MIN 39	8
2002	1	KC @ CLE	KC 40, CLE 39	8
1999	14	CAR @ GB	CAR 33, GB 31	8

Buffalo led 3-0, Houston answered with a touchdown, and the lead changed hands three more times before halftime. Buffalo's 27-21 edge survived the third quarter, then the fourth quarter alone produced four more changes: a Stroud to Montgomery touchdown, a Tyler Bass field goal, a 58 yard Ka'imi Fairbairn field goal, and the Allen to Palmer touchdown on third-and-11. Both teams had been in a game like this in 2025: Houston beat Indianapolis 38-30 in Week 18 with eight lead changes, and Buffalo beat Tampa Bay 44-32 in Week 11 with nine.

Why it matters. Lead changes measure how long a game stayed undecided; most games settle into one team's control by the fourth quarter. This one flipped four times in the final 15 minutes, and the last two swings came on a 58 yard kick and a third-and-11 throw, both low-percentage plays that landed. Houston's reply reached the Buffalo 9 with 30 seconds left, so the game ended one strip-sack short of a ninth change.

Buffalo put +0.229 EPA per play on the defense that led the NFL in 2025. No 2025 opponent got past +0.135.

Comparison

Defensive EPA per play allowed, 2025 regular season, league top 6

Rank	Team	Plays	EPA/play allowed
1	HOU	982	-0.131
2	SEA	1061	-0.116
3	JAX	1030	-0.105
4	MIN	1017	-0.099
5	CLE	994	-0.096
6	DEN	1055	-0.088

Best offensive games against Houston in 2025, plus this one

Game	Offense	Plays	EPA/play	Yards
2026 Wk 1	BUF	52	+0.229	410
2025 Wk 2	TB	73	+0.135	360
2025 Wk 15	ARI	64	+0.012	307
2025 Wk 1	LA	55	-0.038	298
2025 Wk 8	SF	45	-0.040	225

Houston allowed minus 0.131 EPA per play across the 2025 regular season, the best mark in the league, and never let an offense reach plus 0.14 in a game. Buffalo's 52 pass and run plays produced plus 0.229 and 410 yards. Houston had not given up 36 points in a game since Week 16 of 2023.

Why it matters. One game against a defense this good is the strongest single signal Week 1 can give about an offense, because the baseline is nearly a full season of 982 plays. Buffalo's number was not built on volume: 52 plays is a light workload, so the efficiency came from six gains of 20 or more yards worth 211 of the 410. For Houston, the question is whether this was a Josh Allen problem or a structural one; last season's worst outing was Tampa Bay's plus 0.135 in Week 2, and no offense came close to it again.

Buffalo's second quarter: 13 plays, 166 yards, 21 points, +1.02 EPA per play. Outside it, Houston won 17-15.

Split

Offense by quarter (pass and run plays)

Team	Qtr	Plays	Yards	EPA/play	Points
BUF	1	11	58	-0.310	3
BUF	2	13	166	+1.020	21
BUF	3	11	41	-0.238	3
BUF	4	17	145	+0.276	9
HOU	1	15	77	+0.014	7
HOU	2	20	138	+0.385	14
HOU	3	16	63	-0.064	0
HOU	4	22	103	-0.084	10

Team-quarters of 12+ plays at +1.0 EPA per play or better, 1999-2026

Team-quarters with 12+ plays	At +1.0 or better	Share
47,443	97	0.2%

Buffalo's offense sat at minus 0.31 EPA per play after the first quarter, then scored on three straight second-quarter drives: Allen's 21 yard scramble, a 1 yard Allen plunge after a 46 yard pass interference penalty, and a three-play, 96 yard drive of 38 yards to Kincaid, 15 to Moore and 43 to Moore for the score. Houston's own second quarter was strong, plus 0.385 on 20 plays, and still lost the quarter 21-14. A quarter of 12 or more plays at plus 1.0 EPA per play has happened 97 times in 47,443 team-quarters since 1999, about one in 490.

Why it matters. Outside the second quarter this was Houston's game: 17-15 on the scoreboard and 53 plays to 39. The 15 minutes before halftime turned a 7-3 deficit into a 24-21 lead, and every point Buffalo scored after that was needed. A quarter this efficient is rare for any offense, and Buffalo had two of them against Houston in three seasons (the third quarter of the 2024 meeting also cleared plus 1.0), which points at matchup rather than luck.

Kincaid averaged 26 yards a catch on five catches. Only 12 tight end games since 1999 have done that.

Milestone

Tight end games with 5+ receptions and 25+ yards per reception, 1999-2026

Season	Wk	Player	Team	Rec	Yards	TD	Per catch
2017	5	Ed Dickson	CAR	5	175	0	35.0
2011	15	Brent Celek	PHI	5	156	1	31.2
2014	12	Delanie Walker	TEN	5	155	0	31.0
2018	14	George Kittle	SF	7	210	1	30.0
2018	2	Jesse James	PIT	5	138	1	27.6
2011	14	Rob Gronkowski	NE	6	160	2	26.7
2009	18	Jermichael Finley	GB	6	159	0	26.5
2009	2	Dallas Clark	IND	7	183	1	26.1
2026	1	Dalton Kincaid	BUF	5	130	0	26.0
2005	6	Jeremy Shockey	NYG	5	129	1	25.8
2011	19	Vernon Davis	SF	7	180	2	25.7
2024	14	George Kittle	SF	6	151	0	25.2

Kincaid's five catches

Qtr	Clock	Situation	Gain	Air yards	After catch
2	2:10	1st & 10 at BUF 4	38	38	0
3	7:15	1st & 10 at HOU 27	11	11	0
4	13:23	2nd & 10 at BUF 34	6	5	1
4	12:44	3rd & 4 at BUF 40	40	25	15
4	2:00	1st & 10 at BUF 32	35	13	22

Kincaid's previous career high was 108 yards, against New England in Week 5 of 2025. Three of his five catches went for 35 or more: a 38 yarder from Buffalo's own 4 that started the 96 yard drive before halftime, a 40 yard third-and-4 conversion to the Houston 20 that set up the go-ahead field goal, and a 35 yarder at the 2:00 mark that moved the winning drive to the Houston 33.

Why it matters. The twelve games on this list come from eight different seasons and only George Kittle appears twice, so it is a list of single afternoons rather than a group of players. For Buffalo the useful read is where the catches came: two of Kincaid's three long gains arrived on the drives that produced the go-ahead field goal and the winning touchdown, on a third down and inside the two-minute mark, where a short completion would have stalled the drive.

Buffalo's first win in Houston since 2006 ended six straight losses there. Allen had been 0-4 in the building.

Milestone

Bills at Texans, every game played in Houston

Season	Wk	Type	Result
2002	6	REG	BUF 31, HOU 24
2006	11	REG	BUF 24, HOU 21
2012	9	REG	HOU 21, BUF 9
2014	4	REG	HOU 23, BUF 17
2018	6	REG	HOU 20, BUF 13
2019	Wild Card	POST	HOU 22, BUF 19
2024	5	REG	HOU 23, BUF 20
2025	12	REG	HOU 23, BUF 19
2026	1	REG	BUF 36, HOU 31

Josh Allen in Houston

Season	Wk	Comp/Att	Pass yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush yds	Rush TD
2018	6	10/17	84	0	0	20	0
2019	Wild Card	24/46	264	0	0	92	0
2024	5	9/30	131	1	0	54	0
2025	12	24/34	253	0	2	20	0
2026	1	20/29	334	2	0	23	2

Buffalo had lost six straight in Houston, four of them with Allen at quarterback, by 7, 3, 3 and 4 points. Those four Allen games produced 732 passing yards, one touchdown pass and two interceptions combined. Sunday he threw for 334 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions and added two rushing scores. Houston still leads the all-time series 8-6, including the 2019 playoff game.

Why it matters. The streak was built on close games, not blowouts: Houston's four wins over Allen came by a combined 17 points, and in each one Buffalo's passing game was the missing piece. This game was close again, but the difference was Allen's passing line, with more touchdown passes in one afternoon than in his previous four visits combined. That is the single change that separates this trip from the other four.

Buffalo lost the snaps, first downs, third downs and red zone, and won. Only 9 of 271 winners did that in 2025.

Anomaly

This game, both offenses (pass and run plays)

Team	Plays	First downs	3rd down	Red-zone TD	Plays of 30+	Turnovers	EPA/play
BUF	52	18	3 of 9	1	5	0	+0.229
HOU	73	21	7 of 16	4	1	2	+0.069

2025 regular season: winners with fewer plays, first downs, third-down conversions and red-zone TDs than the loser

Game	Score	Plays (W vs L)	First downs	3rd-down conv	Red-zone TD
Wk 2 CAR @ ARI	ARI 27, CAR 22	47 vs 78	15 vs 23	3 vs 5	2 vs 3
Wk 7 PHI @ MIN	PHI 28, MIN 22	48 vs 67	13 vs 20	3 vs 7	0 vs 1
Wk 10 CLE @ NYJ	NYJ 27, CLE 20	45 vs 70	9 vs 18	3 vs 6	0 vs 1
Wk 15 BAL @ CIN	BAL 24, CIN 0	37 vs 71	15 vs 16	2 vs 3	0 vs 1
Wk 16 LA @ SEA	SEA 38, LA 37	65 vs 88	21 vs 24	4 vs 8	2 vs 3
Wk 16 TB @ CAR	CAR 23, TB 20	53 vs 60	16 vs 17	6 vs 8	1 vs 2
Wk 17 TB @ MIA	MIA 20, TB 17	52 vs 63	13 vs 19	4 vs 6	1 vs 2
Wk 17 PHI @ BUF	PHI 13, BUF 12	53 vs 73	11 vs 18	4 vs 6	1 vs 2
Wk 18 NO @ ATL	ATL 19, NO 17	58 vs 65	13 vs 15	4 vs 5	1 vs 2

2025 regular season: team-games with 5+ scrimmage plays of 30+ yards

Team-games	With 5+ plays of 30+	Record
544	6	3-3

Houston ran 21 more plays, converted 7 of 16 third downs to Buffalo's 3 of 9, and scored four red-zone touchdowns to one. Buffalo's answer was five plays of 30 yards or more (38, 43, 40 and 35 to Kincaid and Moore, then the 34 yard winner to Palmer) against one for Houston, and both Houston turnovers were Greg Rousseau strip-sacks of Stroud, the second at the Buffalo 28 with 16 seconds left. In the 2025 regular season a winner lost all four of those down-to-down categories only 9 times in 271 games, and only six team-games all season had five gains of 30 or more.

Why it matters. Volume numbers describe how a game felt; explosive plays and turnovers describe who won it. Houston's offense was steadily good and Buffalo's was rarely on the field, but six Buffalo plays of 20 or more yards accounted for 211 of its 410 yards, and the two lost fumbles were Houston's only two turnovers all day, the last one on the possession that could have produced a ninth lead change. The 2025 list shows how unusual the profile is: nine winners in a season lost all four categories, and seven of the nine games had fewer than 50 combined points; this one had 67.

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