Game recap

Browns @ Jaguars

2026 Wk 1 · JAX 34, CLE 10

A 31-0 lead means the game was decided before either coach had to manage a close fourth quarter, so the final 34-10 undersells the gap between the two teams on the day. Week 1 blowouts of this size are rarer than in-season ones because rosters are healthy and game plans are fresh, which is why only eight have happened in 28 seasons. For Jacksonville it is also the widest opening day win since 1999 apart from the 41-3 game against San Francisco that year.

FanIQ Research · September 14, 2026 · 6 facts, every one from the play-by-play

A 31-0 lead in Week 1: the eighth since 1999, and Cleveland has been on the wrong end of two of them.

Rare

Every Week 1 game since 1999 in which a team led by 31-0 or more

Season	Team	Opponent	Lead reached	Final
1999	PIT	CLE	43-0	PIT 43, CLE 0
2003	BUF	NE	31-0	BUF 31, NE 0
2008	PHI	LA	38-0	PHI 38, LA 3
2011	HOU	IND	34-0	HOU 34, IND 7
2015	CIN	LV	33-0	CIN 33, LV 13
2018	BAL	BUF	40-0	BAL 47, BUF 3
2023	DAL	NYG	40-0	DAL 40, NYG 0
2026	JAX	CLE	31-0	JAX 34, CLE 10

Scoring plays, in order

Qtr	Clock	Play	Score
1	8:18	Lawrence 30 yd TD pass to Parker Washington, Little PAT	JAX 7-0
1	1:47	Lawrence 4 yd TD pass to Josh Cameron, Little PAT	JAX 14-0
2	9:13	Cam Little 47 yd FG	JAX 17-0
2	6:24	Lawrence 14 yd TD pass to Brenton Strange, Little PAT	JAX 24-0
3	12:18	Lawrence 32 yd TD pass to Jakobi Meyers, Little PAT	JAX 31-0
3	8:34	Andre Szmyt 26 yd FG	JAX 31-3
3	1:52	Cam Little 40 yd FG	JAX 34-3
4	2:00	Watson 46 yd TD pass to Denzel Boston, Szmyt PAT	JAX 34-10

Jacksonville scored the first 31 points and all four of Trevor Lawrence's touchdown passes came before the midpoint of the third quarter. Cleveland's first points arrived at 8:34 of the third quarter on a 26 yard field goal. Across 6,981 regular season games since 1999, a team has reached a 31-0 lead 188 times, about one game in 37. In Week 1 it has happened eight times, and the Browns were the team being shut out in 1999 as well as in this game.

Why it matters. A 31-0 lead means the game was decided before either coach had to manage a close fourth quarter, so the final 34-10 undersells the gap between the two teams on the day. Week 1 blowouts of this size are rarer than in-season ones because rosters are healthy and game plans are fresh, which is why only eight have happened in 28 seasons. For Jacksonville it is also the widest opening day win since 1999 apart from the 41-3 game against San Francisco that year.

The No. 4 pass defense of 2025 allowed plus 0.79 EPA per dropback, a top 1% passing game since 1999.

Anomaly

Pass defense, 2025 regular season, EPA allowed per pass play (league top 5 of 32)

Rank	Defense	Pass plays	EPA allowed/play
1	HOU	588	-0.186
2	MIN	496	-0.148
3	JAX	671	-0.140
4	CLE	540	-0.132
5	PHI	582	-0.124

Cleveland's worst pass defense games, 2025 regular season plus this game

Game	Offense	Pass plays	EPA allowed/play	Pass TD
2026 Wk 1	JAX	24	0.793	4
2025 Wk 6	PIT	30	0.320	2
2025 Wk 5	MIN	38	0.315	2
2025 Wk 2	BAL	32	0.292	4
2025 Wk 8	NE	30	0.214	3

This game, offense by play type

Team	Pass plays	Pass EPA/play	Run plays	Run EPA/play
JAX	24	0.793	29	-0.038
CLE	27	-0.364	22	0.037

Cleveland allowed minus 0.132 EPA per pass play across the 2025 regular season, fourth best in the league. Jacksonville produced plus 0.793 on 24 pass plays, more than double the worst game Cleveland's pass defense had all of last season (plus 0.320 against Pittsburgh). Among the 14,304 team-games since 1999 with at least 20 pass plays, Jacksonville's number ranks 138th. The Jaguars' run game was flat at minus 0.038 on 29 carries, so the passing game did all the damage.

Why it matters. Cleveland's pass defense was the one unit that held up through a losing 2025, so this is the unit's failure rather than a predictable one. A 0.79 EPA per dropback game against a top 5 pass defense usually means schemed open throws rather than contested wins: Lawrence needed only 24 dropbacks for four touchdowns, and the run game gave him no help. One game is one game, but the gap between minus 0.132 and plus 0.793 is far larger than normal week to week variance for a defense.

Four touchdowns, no picks, 23 throws: the best EPA per dropback and CPOE of Lawrence's 77 career starts.

Comparison

Trevor Lawrence's top 5 regular season starts by EPA per dropback (77 starts with 15+ dropbacks, 2021 to 2026)

Rank	Season	Wk	Opp	Comp/Att	Yards	TD	EPA/dropback	CPOE
1	2026	1	CLE	18/23	245	4	0.793	+22.3
2	2025	15	NYJ	20/32	330	5	0.743	+12.2
3	2022	2	IND	25/30	235	2	0.585	+14.3
4	2024	7	NE	15/20	193	1	0.533	+4.6
5	2023	11	TEN	24/32	262	2	0.500	+15.6

Lawrence's career regular season baseline, 2021 to 2026

Dropbacks	EPA/dropback	CPOE
2,782	0.014	-0.9

Jaguars passer games with 4+ TD and 0 INT, regular season, 1999 to 2026

Season	Wk	Opp	Passer	Comp/Att	Yards	TD
2007	17	HOU	Quinn Gray	25/39	302	4
2010	8	DAL	David Garrard	17/21	260	4
2012	11	HOU	Chad Henne	16/33	354	4
2015	13	TEN	Blake Bortles	24/36	322	5
2017	3	BAL	Blake Bortles	20/31	244	4
2025	15	NYJ	Trevor Lawrence	20/32	330	5
2026	1	CLE	Trevor Lawrence	18/23	245	4

Lawrence went 18 of 23 for 245 yards with touchdown passes to four different receivers: Parker Washington from 30 yards, Josh Cameron from 4, Brenton Strange from 14, and Jakobi Meyers from 32. Measured per dropback, it is the best game of his career on both counts: 0.793 EPA per dropback against a career average of 0.014, and a completion rate 22.3 points above expected against a career mark of minus 0.9. The game it displaced at the top, the 5 touchdown day against the Jets in Week 15 of 2025, came just five regular season starts earlier. It is also the seventh 4 TD, 0 INT game by a Jaguars passer since 1999, and only David Garrard's 21 attempt game in 2010 did it on fewer throws.

Why it matters. EPA per dropback and CPOE together separate a quarterback who threw well from one who benefited from yards after the catch, and this game leads Lawrence's career in both. The 23 attempt volume is the detail that matters for Jacksonville: the offense did not need him to throw 35 times to score 34 points, which is the profile of a passing game working ahead of the chains. Two of his three best games by EPA per dropback have come in his last five regular season starts, after none in his first four seasons reached a 4 TD, 0 INT line.

Before the score hit 34-3, Cleveland ran 29 plays at minus 0.55 EPA apiece and went 1 for 8 on third down.

Split

Cleveland offense, pass and run plays, split at the 34-3 score

Phase	Plays	EPA/play	Yards	First downs	Sacks
Before 34-3	29	-0.546	115	6	2
At 34-3 or later	20	0.340	157	8	3

Third down and red zone, both teams, with the 2025 league rate

Team	3rd down	Red-zone plays	Red-zone TD
CLE	1 of 8 (12.5%)	7	0
JAX	5 of 9 (55.6%)	3	2
2025 league	40.2% (6,801 att)	5,269	19.2% per play

Cleveland's seven red-zone snaps

Qtr	Down and distance	Ball on	Play	Yards
3	3rd and 7	JAX 20	Watson scramble	9
3	1st and 10	JAX 11	Watson run	6
3	2nd and 4	JAX 5	Judkins run	2
3	3rd and 7	JAX 8	Watson incomplete to Boston	0
4	2nd and 6	JAX 18	Judkins run	3
4	3rd and 3	JAX 15	Watson sacked by Hines-Allen	-1
4	4th and 4	JAX 16	Watson sacked by Combs	-6

Cleveland's only third down conversion was a 9 yard Watson scramble on the drive that reached the Jacksonville 3 and ended in a 26 yard field goal. The next trip inside the 20, at 34-3 in the fourth quarter, ended with sacks on third and fourth down from the 15. Jacksonville converted 5 of 9 third downs and scored touchdowns on two of its three red-zone snaps. Cleveland's numbers after 34-3 (20 plays, plus 0.340 EPA, the 46 yard touchdown to Denzel Boston with 2:00 left) are the only productive stretch of the day.

Why it matters. Third down and the red zone are where a bad offense turns yards into nothing, and Cleveland's 272 yards produced 10 points because both failed at once: one conversion in eight tries, and seven snaps inside the 20 with no touchdown. The split at 34-3 matters for reading the box score. Cleveland's second half yardage looks respectable (177 yards), but 157 of those came after the game was decided, against a defense protecting a 31 point lead.

Watson took five sacks on 27 dropbacks, an 18.5% rate against a league that allowed 6.9% last season.

Comparison

Deshaun Watson's last eight regular season starts

Season	Wk	Opp	Dropbacks	Sacks	Sack rate
2026	1	JAX	27	5	18.5%
2024	7	CIN	19	2	10.5%
2024	6	PHI	28	5	17.9%
2024	5	WAS	35	7	20.0%
2024	4	LV	35	3	8.6%
2024	3	NYG	45	8	17.8%
2024	2	JAX	36	2	5.6%
2024	1	DAL	51	6	11.8%

2025 regular season baseline

Measure	Value
League sack rate on pass plays	6.9% (1,287 of 18,741)
Quarterback games with 5+ sacks (10+ attempts)	66 of 561 (11.8%)

Jacksonville sack and QB hit credits, this game

Player	Sacks	QB hits
Josh Hines-Allen	1.5	2
Travon Walker	1.5	1
Ventrell Miller	1	1
Branson Combs	1	1

This was Watson's first regular season start since Week 7 of 2024. He completed 16 of 22 for 205 yards with a touchdown and an interception, and Foye Oluokun's pick at 12:17 of the first quarter was the largest win probability swing of the game, 17.4 points against Cleveland. The sacks are the through line: five or more in five of his last eight starts, at 18.5% here against a 2025 league rate of 6.9%. He also lost a fumble on a Ventrell Miller hit in the second quarter.

Why it matters. A sack rate near three times the league average on a day when the quarterback completed 73% of his throws points at time to throw and protection rather than accuracy. Watson's last eight starts show the same shape across two different seasons and coaching staffs, which makes it hard to assign to one offensive line. For Cleveland the practical cost was two drives that died inside the Jacksonville 20 on sacks, and the second quarter fumble that came on a hit in the pocket.

Every Browns head coach since 1999 lost his first game. Monken's 24 point loss is the fourth worst of eleven.

Milestone

Week 1 debuts by Cleveland head coaches, 1999 to 2026, by margin

Coach	Season	Opponent	Result	Margin
Chris Palmer	1999	PIT	PIT 43, CLE 0	-43
Kevin Stefanski	2020	at BAL	BAL 38, CLE 6	-32
Freddie Kitchens	2019	TEN	TEN 43, CLE 13	-30
Todd Monken	2026	at JAX	JAX 34, CLE 10	-24
Hue Jackson	2016	at PHI	PHI 29, CLE 10	-19
Eric Mangini	2009	MIN	MIN 34, CLE 20	-14
Romeo Crennel	2005	CIN	CIN 27, CLE 13	-14
Rob Chudzinski	2013	MIA	MIA 23, CLE 10	-13
Pat Shurmur	2011	CIN	CIN 27, CLE 17	-10
Butch Davis	2001	SEA	SEA 9, CLE 6	-3
Mike Pettine	2014	at PIT	PIT 30, CLE 27	-3

Eleven coaches have opened a season as Cleveland's head coach since 1999, and all eleven lost the opener. Todd Monken's debut sits behind only Chris Palmer, Kevin Stefanski, and Freddie Kitchens on the wrong side of the list. The two mid-season interim coaches, Terry Robiskie in 2004 and Gregg Williams in 2018, are left out because their first games were not Week 1. Cleveland's overall Week 1 record since 1999 is 3 wins, 24 losses, and 1 tie.

Why it matters. A new head coach's first game is the cleanest look at his system before opponents have film on it, and Cleveland has now sent eleven straight new coaches into that game and lost every one. The margins are the part that reads as structural rather than random: nine of the eleven were by 10 points or more. Monken's 24 point loss came with a passing game that produced minus 0.364 EPA per play, the same weakness the previous staff left behind.

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