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Dolphins @ Raiders

2026 Wk 1 · LV 27, MIA 13

A back who reaches 100 rushing yards and also scores twice as a receiver is carrying both halves of a game plan, and Jeanty did it on a day when no Raiders wide receiver had more than 27 receiving yards. Doing it twice inside his first 18 games puts him alongside Westbrook and McCaffrey, the two backs whose receiving usage defined their offenses. For Las Vegas the number that matters is six targets, six catches: the passing game's scoring ran through the back, not the perimeter.

Jeanty ran for 102 yards and caught two touchdowns. Twelve such games since 1999, and two are his.

Rare

Running backs with 100+ rushing yards and 2+ receiving TDs in a regular-season game, 1999 to 2026

SeasonWkPlayerTeamOppRush ydsRecRec ydsRec TD
20029Antowain SmithNEBUF1115312
200710Brian WestbrookPHIWAS1005832
200813Brian WestbrookPHIARI1103202
20171Kareem HuntKCNE1485982
20175Melvin GordonLACNYG1056582
201716Todd GurleyLATEN118101582
20233De'Von AchaneMIADEN2034302
202312Kyren WilliamsLAARI1436612
202315Christian McCaffreySFARI1155722
20254Ashton JeantyLVCHI1382172
202516Christian McCaffreySFIND1176292
20261Ashton JeantyLVMIA1026452

Jeanty in this game

CarriesRush ydsTargetsRecRec ydsRec TDScrimmage yds
2310266452147

Jeanty carried 23 times for 102 yards and caught all six of his targets for 45 yards, with both touchdowns coming on 13-yard throws from Kirk Cousins. The complete list of regular-season games since 1999 with 100 rushing yards and two receiving touchdowns by one back has 12 entries. Only three players appear twice: Brian Westbrook, Christian McCaffrey, and Jeanty, who did it in his 4th career game against Chicago in Week 4 of 2025 and again here in his 18th. The other Raiders entry on the list is also his.

Why it matters. A back who reaches 100 rushing yards and also scores twice as a receiver is carrying both halves of a game plan, and Jeanty did it on a day when no Raiders wide receiver had more than 27 receiving yards. Doing it twice inside his first 18 games puts him alongside Westbrook and McCaffrey, the two backs whose receiving usage defined their offenses. For Las Vegas the number that matters is six targets, six catches: the passing game's scoring ran through the back, not the perimeter.

Cousins' second touchdown pass was his 300th. He is the tenth passer to start in 2000 or later and reach it.

Milestone

Passers with 300+ regular-season TD passes whose first season was 2000 or later

PasserFirst seasonLast seasonTD passesBest season
Tom Brady2000202264950
Drew Brees2001202057146
Aaron Rodgers2005202652848
Philip Rivers2004202542534
Matthew Stafford2009202642346
Ben Roethlisberger2004202141834
Matt Ryan2008202238138
Eli Manning2004201936635
Russell Wilson2012202535340
Kirk Cousins2012202630135

Cousins' three touchdown passes in this game

QtrClockThrowCareer No.
11:3815 yards to Jack Bech299
21:1213 yards to Ashton Jeanty300
310:0613 yards to Ashton Jeanty301

Cousins' regular-season TD passes by team

TeamSeasonsTD passes
WAS2012 to 201799
MIN2018 to 2023171
ATL2024 to 202528
LV20263

Cousins entered the game with 298 regular-season touchdown passes. The 15-yard throw to Jack Bech late in the first quarter made 299, the 13-yard throw to Jeanty with 1:12 left in the half made 300, and the second Jeanty score early in the third quarter made 301. Among passers whose careers began in 2000 or later, he is the tenth to reach 300. Russell Wilson, whose first season was also 2012, sits at 353 through 2025. Cousins threw 99 of his in Washington, 171 in Minnesota and 28 in Atlanta before the first three in Las Vegas.

Why it matters. Three hundred touchdown passes is a volume and longevity mark, and Cousins reached it on his fourth team at age 38, in his first game for Las Vegas. The list of passers to get there with a career that started this century is ten names long, and Cousins got there without a monster year: his best single season was 35 touchdown passes in 2020, and only Roethlisberger and Rivers, at 34, reached 300 with a lower peak. This is a mark built across fifteen seasons of volume. Two passers who entered the league in 2012, Wilson and Cousins, are now past 300.

Last in the NFL in 2025 at minus 0.215 EPA per play, the Raiders opened at plus 0.357 through halftime.

Comparison

Offensive EPA per play, 2025 regular season (pass and run plays)

RankTeamPlaysEPA/play
1NE1017+0.159
2LA1056+0.145
3BUF1065+0.136
22MIA942-0.017
28MIN943-0.115
29NYJ1009-0.127
30TEN995-0.160
31CLE1028-0.190
32LV942-0.215

This game by half (pass and run plays)

TeamHalfPlaysEPA/playSuccess rateYards
LV1st31+0.35754.8%170
LV2nd33-0.41230.3%126
MIA1st25+0.04444.0%151
MIA2nd25-0.51524.0%108

Las Vegas ran 942 pass and run plays in the 2025 regular season at minus 0.215 EPA per play, 32nd of 32 teams. The first 31 plays of this game came in at plus 0.357 with a 54.8% success rate and produced a 17-6 halftime lead; no offense sustained a number that high across all of 2025, where New England led at plus 0.159. The second half was a different unit: 33 plays at minus 0.412, one of them the Cousins interception. The full-game figure of minus 0.039 on 64 plays is level with the 26th-ranked 2025 season. Miami went from plus 0.044 to minus 0.515 across the same break.

Why it matters. EPA per play is the cleanest single read on whether an offense is moving the field, and a first half at plus 0.357 from a unit that spent 2025 at the bottom is the kind of swing that a new coaching staff gets credit for: the opening drive alone went 93 yards over 16 plays and 8 minutes 53 seconds. The second-half collapse is the caution. Some of it is a 27-13 lead and 13 fourth-quarter plays that gained 14 yards on purpose, but the two halves together are still one game, and the question for Las Vegas is which half is the real baseline.

Third down flipped: Las Vegas converted 6 of 12 and Miami 2 of 10, after both ranked bottom seven in 2025.

Split

Third downs in this game (pass and run plays)

TeamTriesConversionsRate
LV12650.0%
MIA10220.0%

Third-down conversion rate, 2025 regular season

RankTeamTriesConversionsRate
1SF20910650.7%
2GB20610048.5%
3BUF2059546.3%
26MIA1926835.4%
29LV2137334.3%
32TEN2327431.9%

Red zone snaps (pass and run plays inside the 20)

TeamSpanSnapsTDTD per snap
LVThis game12325.0%
MIAThis game5120.0%
LV2025 season (30th of 32)1171815.4%

Las Vegas converted 6 of 12 third downs, a 50.0% rate that sits next to what San Francisco led the league with across 2025 (50.7%). The Raiders' own 2025 rate was 34.3%, 29th of 32. Miami went 2 of 10 after finishing 26th at 35.4%, and Malik Willis was sacked five times. Inside the 20 the Raiders scored touchdowns on 3 of 12 snaps; across 2025 they scored on 18 of 117, 30th in the league.

Why it matters. Third-down rate and red-zone finishing are the two situational numbers that a new play caller can move fastest, because they depend on the call sheet more than on personnel. Las Vegas was bottom four in both a year ago and won this game on exactly those downs: all three touchdowns came from inside the 20. Miami's 2 of 10 is why its 259 yards produced 13 points. Twelve and ten tries are small samples, so this reads as a one-week signal, not a new baseline.

Both head coaches were working their first NFL game. That has happened five times since 2000.

Rare

Games where both head coaches made their NFL head-coaching debut, 2000 to 2026

SeasonWkGameScoreHome coachAway coach
20001NYJ @ GBNYJ 20, GB 16Mike ShermanAl Groh
20141WAS @ HOUHOU 17, WAS 6Bill O'BrienJay Gruden
20211PHI @ ATLPHI 32, ATL 6Arthur SmithNick Sirianni
20211JAX @ HOUHOU 37, JAX 21David CulleyUrban Meyer
20261MIA @ LVLV 27, MIA 13Klint KubiakJeff Hafley

Klint Kubiak's first game as an NFL head coach came against Jeff Hafley's first. Since 2000 only five games have paired two debuting head coaches, and all five fell in Week 1. The last time was 2021, when it happened twice on the same weekend: Nick Sirianni's Eagles at Arthur Smith's Falcons, and Urban Meyer's Jaguars at David Culley's Texans. The home debutant has won three of the five; the two road winners were Al Groh's Jets in 2000 and Sirianni's Eagles in 2021.

Why it matters. Two first-time head coaches on the same field removes the usual experience edge, so the result is a cleaner read on the two rosters and the two opening game plans than a typical Week 1. Kubiak's offense scored on its first drive and led for the final 58 minutes; Hafley's defense produced two interceptions but his offense converted 2 of 10 third downs. Four of the five pairings on this list, including this one, were decided by 11 or more points; only the 2000 game, a 4-point Jets win, was close.

The Raiders' first win over Miami since 2021, by their widest regular-season margin in the series since 2007.

Milestone

Dolphins vs Raiders, every meeting since 2014

SeasonWkGameScoreWinnerMargin
20144MIA @ LVMIA 38, LV 14MIA24
20179LV @ MIALV 27, MIA 24LV3
20183LV @ MIAMIA 28, LV 20MIA8
202016MIA @ LVMIA 26, LV 25MIA1
20213MIA @ LVLV 31, MIA 28LV3
202311LV @ MIAMIA 20, LV 13MIA7
202411LV @ MIAMIA 34, LV 19MIA15
20261MIA @ LVLV 27, MIA 13LV14

Every Raiders win over Miami, 1999 to 2026

SeasonRoundScoreMargin
2000DivisionalLV 27, MIA 027
2007Wk 4LV 35, MIA 1718
2017Wk 9LV 27, MIA 243
2021Wk 3LV 31, MIA 283
2026Wk 1LV 27, MIA 1314

Miami leads the series 13 to 5 across 18 meetings since 1999 and had won the last two, 20-13 in 2023 and 34-19 in 2024. The Raiders' four earlier wins in that span were a 27-0 playoff game in the 2000 season, a 35-17 game in 2007, and two 3-point games in 2017 and 2021. This 14-point margin is the largest Las Vegas has managed against Miami in a regular-season game since 2007.

Why it matters. This is a series the Raiders have lost 13 times in 18 tries, and two of their previous four wins in it were decided by 3 points. A 14-point win in which Miami never led is out of character for the matchup; the Raiders had not beaten the Dolphins by more than 3 points in a regular-season game since 2007. For Miami, it ends a run of two straight wins in the series, both by a touchdown or more.

Miami's win probability peaked at 48% on its opening drive and never got back there.

Trend

Scoring plays, with Miami's win probability before each snap

QtrClockPlayScore afterMIA win prob before
11:38Cousins 15-yd TD pass to BechLV 7, MIA 031.2%
210:26Gay 47-yd FGLV 10, MIA 019.3%
24:12Patterson 41-yd FGLV 10, MIA 320.3%
21:12Cousins 13-yd TD pass to JeantyLV 17, MIA 314.2%
20:05Patterson 37-yd FGLV 17, MIA 612.6%
312:52Willis 14-yd TD runLV 17, MIA 1321.6%
310:06Cousins 13-yd TD pass to JeantyLV 24, MIA 1317.6%
32:38Gay 30-yd FGLV 27, MIA 137.8%

The answer drive after Miami cut it to 17-13

Clock (Q3)DownPlayYards
12:371st and 10 at 50Jeanty up the middle5
12:002nd and 5 at MIA 45Cousins deep left to Tucker21
11:211st and 10 at MIA 24Jeanty right end8
10:482nd and 2 at MIA 16Jeanty right guard3
10:061st and 10 at MIA 13Cousins to Jeanty, touchdown13

Miami's win probability was 43.3% at the opening kickoff and reached 48.0% at the Las Vegas 45 on its first possession, which ended in a punt. It never got that high again. The closest the Dolphins came was 17-13 after Malik Willis's 14-yard scramble at 12:52 of the third quarter. The Raiders answered with a 5-play, 50-yard drive in 2 minutes 31 seconds, and Miami's second snap after the kickoff was the Willis interception. Miami never led, and the game was never within one score after the 10:06 mark of the third quarter.

Why it matters. A game with no lead change still has a hinge, and here it was the two minutes and 31 seconds after Miami's touchdown. A stop there gives the Dolphins the ball down four with most of the second half left; instead the Raiders needed five plays, and the next Miami possession ended in a turnover. Win probability puts numbers on how narrow the window was: Miami's best moment after the first quarter was 29.2%, at the kickoff right after its own touchdown, and it was under 18% two and a half minutes later.

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