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Colts @ Chiefs

2026 Wk 2 · KC 33, IND 30

Five lead changes, three overtime field goals, and Butker's 40-yarder with one second left.

Butker's 40-yard kick with one second left in overtime is the only game-winning field goal that late since 1999

Rare

Overtime went field goal, field goal, field goal. Harrison Butker's 31-yarder at 5:13 put Kansas City up 30-27, Spencer Shrader's 38-yarder at 3:15 tied it, and Brandon Smith's 25-yard kickoff return gave Mahomes the ball at the Kansas City 32 with 3:06 left. Six plays and 46 yards later, Butker's 40-yarder went through at 0:01. Since 1999 only seven overtime field goals have been made with 3 or fewer seconds on the clock. Two came at 0:01, and the other one (Green Bay at Dallas in 2025) produced a 40-40 tie. This is the only one that won a game.

Overtime field goals made with 3 or fewer seconds left, 1999-2026

SeasonGameKicking teamSeconds leftDistanceFinal
2018HOU @ IND, Wk 4HOU337HOU 37, IND 34
2018CHI @ MIA, Wk 6MIA347MIA 31, CHI 28
2021MIA @ LV, Wk 3LV322LV 31, MIA 28
2021LAC @ LV, Wk 18LV247LV 35, LAC 32
2023HOU @ TEN, Wk 15HOU254HOU 19, TEN 16
2025GB @ DAL, Wk 4GB134DAL 40, GB 40 (tie)
2026IND @ KC, Wk 2KC140KC 33, IND 30

Overtime scoring plays

ClockTeamPlayScore after
5:13KCButker 31-yd FGKC 30, IND 27
3:15INDShrader 38-yd FGKC 30, IND 30
0:01KCButker 40-yd FGKC 33, IND 30

Why it matters. The clock, not the field, was Indianapolis's last defense. Kansas City's 6-play drive averaged under 8 yards a snap, the Chiefs called a timeout at 0:42 to set up the kick, and it still had exactly one second to spare. Since 1999 a made overtime field goal inside the final 3 seconds has happened seven times in more than 7,000 games, and the only other one at 0:01 ended in a tie rather than a win. The margin between this result and a 30-30 tie was one second of clock management.

Five lead changes, three ties, and neither team ever led by more than 7

Trend

Indianapolis scored first on a Daniel Jones 1-yard throw to Tyler Warren, and the lead changed hands five times from there: Kelce's touchdown made it 10-7, Shrader's second field goal made it 13-10 Colts, Xavier Worthy's 1-yard catch made it 17-13, Jonathan Taylor's 24-yard run made it 20-17 at halftime, and Jalen Royals's fourth-and-goal catch made it 24-20 Chiefs. Kansas City's biggest lead was 27-20; Indianapolis never led by more than 7-0. Taylor's 5-yard run tied it at 27 with 5:41 left, and regulation ended with Mahomes's 31-yard completion to Rashee Rice at the Colts' 23 as the clock hit zero. Since 1999, 92 of 7,304 games have had five or more lead changes with no lead bigger than 7; 11 of those went to overtime.

Every scoring play and field goal attempt, with the running score

QtrClockTeamPlayScore after
18:28INDJones 1-yd TD pass to WarrenIND 7, KC 0
16:13KCButker 46-yd FGIND 7, KC 3
14:40KCMahomes 13-yd TD pass to KelceKC 10, IND 7
214:52INDShrader 42-yd FGKC 10, IND 10
212:47KCButker 51-yd FG missedKC 10, IND 10
29:50INDShrader 49-yd FGIND 13, KC 10
22:28KCMahomes 1-yd TD pass to WorthyKC 17, IND 13
21:04INDTaylor 24-yd TD runIND 20, KC 17
38:06KCMahomes 1-yd TD pass to Royals, 4th and goalKC 24, IND 20
414:18KCButker 28-yd FGKC 27, IND 20
45:41INDTaylor 5-yd TD runKC 27, IND 27
OT5:13KCButker 31-yd FGKC 30, IND 27
OT3:15INDShrader 38-yd FGKC 30, IND 30
OT0:01KCButker 40-yd FGKC 33, IND 30

Games with 5+ lead changes and no lead bigger than 7, 2025-2026

SeasonGameFinalLead changesBiggest leadOvertime
2025JAX @ LV, Wk 9JAX 30, LV 2957Yes
2025ATL @ IND, Wk 10IND 31, ATL 2566Yes
2025LA @ CAR, Wk 13CAR 31, LA 2857No
2025BUF @ JAX, Wild CardBUF 27, JAX 2466No
2026IND @ KC, Wk 2KC 33, IND 3057Yes

Overtimes with three scoring plays, 1999-2026

SeasonGameFinal
2012JAX @ HOU, Wk 11HOU 43, JAX 37
2015IND @ CAR, Wk 8CAR 29, IND 26
2016KC @ DEN, Wk 12KC 30, DEN 27
2018HOU @ IND, Wk 4HOU 37, IND 34
2021MIA @ LV, Wk 3LV 31, MIA 28
2021LAC @ LV, Wk 18LV 35, LAC 32
2026IND @ KC, Wk 2KC 33, IND 30

Why it matters. A game with this many lead changes and no two-score margin at any point is a coin flip that lasted 70 minutes, and the shape of it explains why Kansas City's 194-yard edge in offense did not show up on the scoreboard until the last second. The two teams traded the lead five times through three quarters, and the Colts' tying touchdown drive in the fourth quarter came against a defense that had just spent most of the third quarter on the sideline. About 1 in 80 games since 1999 has run this close for this long, and this is Indianapolis's second such game since the start of 2025, after the Week 10 overtime win over Atlanta.

Indianapolis ran four offensive plays in the third quarter. Kansas City ran 25.

Split

Kansas City took the second-half kickoff and ran 14 plays to the Royals touchdown, a drive that included three straight Kenneth Walker III runs from the 1-yard line for no gain before Mahomes threw the fourth-and-goal score. Indianapolis got the ball at 7:55, ran four plays for 21 yards, and punted at 5:48. Kansas City then ran 11 more plays before the quarter ended and finished that drive with Butker's 28-yard field goal at 14:18 of the fourth. Since 1999 a team has run four or fewer pass or run plays in a third quarter 84 times out of 14,608 team quarters, and only 14 of those came while the opponent ran 25 or more.

Offensive plays and yards by quarter (pass and run plays)

QtrIND playsIND yardsKC playsKC yards
121106752
2146219117
342125165
420901183
OT45016106

Third quarters where one team ran 4 or fewer plays and the other ran 25 or more, 1999-2026

SeasonGameTeam with 4 or fewerPlaysOpponentPlaysFinal
1999JAX @ CAR, Wk 2CAR3JAX26JAX 22, CAR 20
2003DAL @ DET, Wk 7DET3DAL25DAL 38, DET 7
2003WAS @ CHI, Wk 16WAS4CHI25CHI 27, WAS 24
2004CAR @ KC, Wk 2KC4CAR26CAR 28, KC 17
2008MIN @ GB, Wk 1GB3MIN27GB 24, MIN 19
2010GB @ NE, Wk 15NE3GB25NE 31, GB 27
2012PIT @ DEN, Wk 1DEN2PIT27DEN 31, PIT 19
2013CIN @ MIA, Wk 9MIA3CIN27MIA 22, CIN 20
2017JAX @ PIT, Wk 5JAX3PIT30JAX 30, PIT 9
2020BAL @ IND, Wk 9IND4BAL25BAL 24, IND 10
2023JAX @ NO, Wk 7JAX3NO27JAX 31, NO 24
2024ATL @ WAS, Wk 17ATL3WAS25WAS 30, ATL 24
2025PIT @ DET, Wk 16DET3PIT25PIT 29, DET 24
2026IND @ KC, Wk 2IND4KC25KC 33, IND 30

Why it matters. The third quarter is where Kansas City turned a 20-17 halftime deficit into a 27-20 lead, and it did it by keeping Daniel Jones on the bench: the Colts' offense had one possession of 2:07 in the entire quarter. The cost showed up later. Kansas City's defense played 25 straight snaps of its own offense's rest time in reverse, and Indianapolis scored on two of its next three possessions once it got the ball back. A split this lopsided in a third quarter has happened in 14 games since 1999, and the team that ran the handful of plays still won six of them, so possession alone does not decide a game.

523 yards, zero turnovers, and it still took a kick with one second left in overtime

Anomaly

Kansas City outgained Indianapolis 523 to 329, never turned the ball over, converted both fourth downs, and went to overtime anyway. Mahomes went 32 of 47 for 382 yards, 3 touchdowns and no interceptions; Walker had 24 carries for 117 yards and 6 catches for 61. Since 1999, 70 team-games have combined 500 or more yards with an overtime, and only six of those came with no interception and no fumble. Two of the six lost. The 523 yards are also more than Kansas City gained in any 2025 regular season game; its high last year was 496, in Week 12, also against the Colts, also a 3-point win.

Both offenses in this game (pass and run plays)

TeamPlaysYardsEPA/playSuccess%INTFumbles3rd down4th down
KC78523+0.22955.1%005 of 132 of 2
IND63329+0.15447.6%105 of 122 of 2

500+ yard, zero-turnover offenses that went to overtime, 1999-2026

SeasonGameTeamYardsPlaysFinal
2004MIN @ HOU, Wk 5MIN51079MIN 34, HOU 28
2015CLE @ BAL, Wk 5CLE50782CLE 33, BAL 30
2016MIA @ BUF, Wk 16BUF59089MIA 34, BUF 31
2018GB @ NYJ, Wk 16GB54379GB 44, NYJ 38
2025LA @ SEA, Wk 16LA58188SEA 38, LA 37
2026IND @ KC, Wk 2KC52378KC 33, IND 30

Why it matters. Yards without turnovers is normally the profile of a comfortable win, so a 194-yard edge that only produced a 3-point overtime result says the yards were not converting. The evidence is on the goal line and in the kicking game: three Walker runs from the 1 for nothing, a 51-yard miss in the second quarter, and a drive that reached the Colts' 13 in overtime and settled for three. Indianapolis, for its part, scored 30 points on 329 yards by making its few chances count: a 13-play, 64-yard tying drive in the fourth quarter that survived a fourth-and-1 sneak at the Kansas City 25, and a 48-yard completion to Laquon Treadwell on the first snap of its overtime possession. A team-game like Kansas City's has occurred six times since 1999, and the outcome was 4-2, not 6-0.

Kelce's 101-yard game at 36 years and 350 days: only Tony Gonzalez has had a 100-yard game as an older tight end

Milestone

Travis Kelce caught 9 of 11 targets for 101 yards and the 13-yard touchdown that gave Kansas City its first lead. It was his first 100-yard regular season game since Week 9 of 2024 against Tampa Bay, and at 36 years and 350 days he is one of two tight ends since 1999 to reach 100 receiving yards in a regular season game past his 36th birthday. The other is Tony Gonzalez, who did it three times for Atlanta in 2012 and 2013. Gonzalez in 2011, Shannon Sharpe in 2003, Kelce himself in 2024 and Zach Ertz in 2025 each had one at 35.

100-yard regular season games by tight ends aged 36 or older, 1999-2026

SeasonPlayerAgeGameRecYardsTD
2013Tony Gonzalez37y 214dATL vs NE, Wk 4121492
2026Travis Kelce36y 350dKC vs IND, Wk 291011
2012Tony Gonzalez36y 258dATL vs NO, Wk 10111222
2012Tony Gonzalez36y 223dATL vs WAS, Wk 5131231

Every Kansas City player targeted in this game

PlayerTargetsRecYardsTD
Travis Kelce1191011
Tyquan Thornton44860
Rashee Rice64830
Kenneth Walker III106610
Xavier Worthy75251
Emmett Johnson22200
Jalen Royals2261
Noah Gray1000

Why it matters. Tight end production usually falls off before 34 because the position takes contact on every snap, so the list of players who have kept a 100-yard game in their range at 36 is two names long. Kelce got there on volume rather than a single long play: 11 targets led the team, and his longest gains of 18 and 17 yards came on Kansas City's last drive of the third quarter and its last drive of regulation. Gonzalez's three games came in his final two seasons, and Kelce's came in the second game of his 14th.

Kansas City's offense finished 11th in EPA per play last season. On this day it posted a number no team averaged in 2025.

Comparison

Kansas City averaged plus 0.035 EPA per play across the 2025 regular season, 11th in the league. Against Indianapolis it produced plus 0.229 on 78 plays, above the plus 0.159 New England posted as the best full-season average in 2025. Indianapolis, 9th last year at plus 0.072, also played above its baseline at plus 0.154, which would have ranked second in 2025. Neither defense was elite a year ago: Indianapolis allowed plus 0.004 per play (16th) and Kansas City allowed minus 0.019 (12th). Mahomes finished 32 of 47 for 382 yards and 3 touchdowns; Daniel Jones went 22 of 31 for 210 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception.

Offensive EPA per play, 2025 regular season

RankTeamPlaysEPA/playSuccess%
1NE1017+0.15948.5%
2LA1056+0.14551.8%
3BUF1065+0.13648.5%
4GB993+0.11547.7%
5DAL1104+0.09846.6%
9IND1011+0.07246.3%
11KC1048+0.03544.5%

This game, offensive EPA per play

TeamPlaysYardsEPA/playSuccess%
KC78523+0.22955.1%
IND63329+0.15447.6%

Why it matters. Kansas City's 2025 baseline was built on a passing game that had lost its explosive element; the plus 0.194 jump here came with Walker as a receiver (6 catches for 61 yards), a 45-yard and a 30-yard completion to Thornton, and a 31-yard completion to Rice on the final snap of regulation. The Colts' number is the quieter story: an offense that gained 329 yards at a success rate under 48 percent still finished at plus 0.154 because its long plays came at the right times, a 24-yard touchdown run before halftime and a 48-yard completion in overtime. One game against a mid-table defense is not a new baseline for either team, but the direction of the swing was the same on both sides.

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