Game recap

Jaguars @ Broncos

2026 Wk 2 · DEN 20, JAX 13

Down 13-3 in the third quarter, Denver scored the last 17 points and led for only the final 7:21.

FanIQ Research · September 21, 2026 · 6 facts, every one from the play-by-play

Down 13-3 with 9:05 left in the third quarter, Denver scored the game's last 17 points.

Trend

Cam Little's 23-yard field goal at 9:05 of the third quarter put Jacksonville up 13-3. Every point after that was Denver's: a 45-yard Wil Lutz field goal at 5:02 of the third, a 7-yard Bo Nix touchdown pass to Nate Adkins at 11:53 of the fourth, and a 3-yard Jonah Coleman run at 7:24. Those were three straight Denver possessions, and the fourth one knelt the clock out. Jacksonville's chance to answer came at 9:45 with the score tied 13-13, and Little's 54-yard attempt missed wide left. In regular-season games since 1999 the eventual winner trailed by 10 or more points in the second half in 574 of 6,995 games, 8.2 percent; last season it happened 22 times in 272 games.

Scoring plays

Qtr	Clock	Team	Play	Score after
2	12:17	JAX	Tuten 1-yd TD run on a direct snap	JAX 7, DEN 0
2	7:03	DEN	Lutz 20-yd FG	JAX 7, DEN 3
2	0:03	JAX	Little 44-yd FG	JAX 10, DEN 3
3	9:05	JAX	Little 23-yd FG	JAX 13, DEN 3
3	5:02	DEN	Lutz 45-yd FG	JAX 13, DEN 6
4	11:53	DEN	Nix 7-yd TD pass to Adkins	JAX 13, DEN 13
4	9:45	JAX	Little 54-yd FG missed wide left	JAX 13, DEN 13
4	7:24	DEN	Coleman 3-yd TD run	DEN 20, JAX 13

How Denver fell behind: two second-quarter trips inside the Jacksonville 10, 3 points

Clock (Q2)	Down	Play	Result
9:16	1st and goal at the 1	Dobbins right guard	No gain
8:34	2nd and goal at the 1	Dobbins left end	No gain
7:52	3rd and goal at the 1	Dobbins left end	Minus 1
7:03	4th and goal at the 2	Lutz 20-yd FG	Good
3:00	1st and goal at the 9	Nix incomplete to Badie	No gain
2:56	2nd and goal at the 9	Coleman right end	1 yard
2:15	3rd and goal at the 8	Nix deep left for Sutton, intercepted by Lewis	Touchback

Regular-season winners that trailed by 10 or more in the second half

Span	Games	Winner trailed by 10+ in 2nd half	Share
1999 to 2026	6,995	574	8.2%
2025	272	22	8.1%

Why it matters. The deficit was self-inflicted: a first-and-goal at the 1 and a third-and-goal at the 8 produced 3 points between them, and the second trip ended in an end-zone interception. That is what made 13-3 possible against an offense that out-gained Jacksonville all day. A 10-point second-half deficit is overcome by the eventual winner in about 8 percent of regular-season games since 1999, and Denver did it on three consecutive possessions without a turnover.

Denver led for 7 minutes 21 seconds of a 60-minute game and won it.

Anomaly

Jacksonville went ahead on Bhayshul Tuten's touchdown at 12:17 of the second quarter and stayed ahead for 30 minutes 26 seconds of game clock. The score was level for 22:13, and Denver's only lead was the last one, 7:21 from Jonah Coleman's touchdown at 7:24 of the fourth to the final kneel. Denver out-gained Jacksonville 395 to 268 on pass and run plays. Since 1999 the winner of a decided regular-season game has held the lead for 8 minutes or less in 559 of 6,980 games, 8.0 percent; in 444 of those the loser was ahead for 30 minutes or more, as Jacksonville was here. Last season that combination happened 20 times in 271 games.

Time in the lead, this game

Team	Led for	First lead
JAX	30:26	Tuten TD, 12:17 Q2
DEN	7:21	Coleman TD, 7:24 Q4
Tied	22:13	Includes the 0-0 first quarter

Regular-season winners by time in the lead, 1999 to 2026

Span	Decided games	Winner led 8:00 or less	And loser led 30:00 or more
1999 to 2026	6,980	559 (8.0%)	444 (6.4%)
2025	271	23 (8.5%)	20 (7.4%)

2025 regular season: shortest time in the lead by a winner whose opponent led 30:00 or more

Week	Game	Winner led	Loser led
3	GB 10 at CLE 13	0:00	41:52
5	TEN 22 at ARI 21	0:00	55:54
12	PHI 21 at DAL 24	0:00	42:01
15	CAR 17 at NO 20	0:02	45:59
12	IND 20 at KC 23	0:03	49:45
16	GB 16 at CHI 22	0:14	38:49

Why it matters. Denver was the better offense for most of the afternoon and still spent half the game behind, because its first two red-zone trips produced 3 points and an interception. Winning with this little time in front is about a 1-in-12 event since 1999, and the 2025 peers show the usual shape: a walk-off score or a lead taken inside the final minute. Denver's version came earlier, with 7:24 left, which left Jacksonville a full possession to answer; it reached its own 35 and punted.

Denver's fourth quarter: 19 plays, 9 first downs, plus 0.42 EPA a play. Jacksonville's: 11 plays, 2 first downs, minus 0.21.

Split

Denver's offense improved every quarter, from minus 0.306 EPA per play in the first to plus 0.422 in the fourth, and its 19 fourth-quarter pass and run plays were its most in any period. Bo Nix was 8 of 10 for 88 yards and the touchdown in the fourth, and Denver was not sacked all game. Jacksonville peaked in the second quarter at plus 0.386 and 107 yards, then produced 74 yards in the third and 41 in the fourth. Its final three possessions ended in Trevor Lawrence's interception at 1:40 of the third, the missed 54-yarder, and a punt.

Denver offense by quarter (pass and run plays)

Qtr	Plays	EPA/play	Yards	First downs	INT
1	12	-0.306	49	2	0
2	15	+0.004	139	5	1
3	10	+0.256	80	4	0
4	19	+0.422	127	9	0

Jacksonville offense by quarter (pass and run plays)

Qtr	Plays	EPA/play	Yards	First downs	INT	Sacks
1	16	-0.190	46	4	0	1
2	13	+0.386	107	7	0	1
3	15	-0.150	74	6	1	0
4	11	-0.214	41	2	0	0

Bo Nix by quarter

Qtr	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT
1	5	8	24	0	0
2	6	8	132	0	1
3	3	5	44	0	0
4	8	10	88	1	0

Why it matters. The two offenses crossed in the third quarter and never crossed back. Denver's fourth-quarter volume matters as much as its efficiency: 19 plays at plus 0.422 is a team sustaining drives, not one long play, and 9 first downs in a quarter is nearly half its game total of 20. Jacksonville's 11-play fourth quarter with 2 first downs is the other side of the same clock: an offense that could not stay on the field once the lead was gone.

Both offenses flipped from Week 1: Denver rose 0.468 EPA per play, Jacksonville fell 0.386.

Comparison

In Week 1 Denver's offense produced minus 0.344 EPA per play at Kansas City, 177 yards on 46 plays, while Jacksonville produced plus 0.338 against Cleveland, 363 yards on 53 plays. In this game they traded places: Denver at plus 0.124 on 395 yards, Jacksonville at minus 0.048 on 268. Among 878 team-seasons since 1999 with an offense in both Week 1 and Week 2, Denver's improvement ranks 39th and Jacksonville's drop ranks 827th. Both moves came against defenses that finished in the 2025 top six in EPA allowed per play: Jacksonville third at minus 0.105, Denver sixth at minus 0.088. The difference was the passing game. Nix's 31 pass plays averaged plus 0.272 with no sacks; Lawrence's 31 averaged minus 0.133 with two.

Offensive EPA per play, Week 1 versus this game

Team	Wk 1 opponent	Wk 1 EPA/play	Wk 2 EPA/play	Swing	Rank of 878
DEN	at KC	-0.344	+0.124	+0.468	39
JAX	vs CLE	+0.338	-0.048	-0.386	827

Largest Week 1 to Week 2 offensive improvements since 1999, with Denver 2026

Season	Team	Wk 1 EPA/play	Wk 2 EPA/play	Swing	Rank
2002	JAX	-0.533	+0.268	+0.801	1
1999	CLE	-0.879	-0.088	+0.791	2
2000	SEA	-0.623	+0.138	+0.760	3
2009	CAR	-0.639	+0.119	+0.758	4
2007	CLE	-0.395	+0.320	+0.715	5
2026	DEN	-0.344	+0.124	+0.468	39

Defensive EPA allowed per play, 2025 regular season, league top 6

Rank	Team	EPA allowed/play
1	HOU	-0.131
2	SEA	-0.116
3	JAX	-0.105
4	MIN	-0.099
5	CLE	-0.096
6	DEN	-0.088

This game by play type

Team	Type	Plays	EPA/play	Yards	Success%
DEN	Pass	31	+0.272	288	51.6%
DEN	Run	25	-0.058	107	44.0%
JAX	Pass	31	-0.133	173	41.9%
JAX	Run	24	+0.062	95	45.8%

Why it matters. Denver's Week 1 number was the kind of outlier that a single road game at Kansas City can produce, and a rebound this large says more about the noise in one game than about a fixed level for either offense. The mechanism is specific, though: Denver's gain came entirely through the air, with Nix kept clean on all 31 dropbacks against a defense that ranked third in the league a year ago, while Jacksonville's passing game went from carrying its Week 1 to costing it here. Both teams' run games were close to flat, so the swing is a passing-game story on both sides.

Jaylen Waddle's 138 yards: the fourth 130-yard receiving game by a Bronco since 2019, and the second of the four against Jacksonville.

Rare

A week after catching 1 pass for 2 yards on 3 targets in his Denver debut, Waddle caught 8 of 10 targets for 138 yards, including a 49-yarder to the Jacksonville 1 in the second quarter and a 14-yard catch on third and 7 that set up the tying touchdown. Denver receivers have had four regular-season games of 130 or more yards since 2019, and two of them came against Jacksonville: Courtland Sutton's 159 in Week 2 of 2021 and this one. It is the fifth-best regular-season game of Waddle's career, behind 171, 144, 143 and 142 in Miami, and no other Bronco had more than 32 receiving yards in this game.

Broncos with 130 or more receiving yards in a game, 2019 to 2026 regular season

Season	Week	Player	Opponent	Rec	Yards
2021	2	Courtland Sutton	JAX	9	159
2022	18	Jerry Jeudy	LAC	5	154
2020	17	Jerry Jeudy	LV	5	140
2026	2	Jaylen Waddle	JAX	8	138

Waddle's top regular-season receiving games

Season	Week	Team	Opponent	Targets	Rec	Yards	TD
2022	2	MIA	BAL	19	11	171	2
2024	12	MIA	NE	9	8	144	1
2022	16	MIA	GB	6	5	143	1
2023	15	MIA	NYJ	9	8	142	1
2026	2	DEN	JAX	10	8	138	0
2021	12	MIA	CAR	10	9	137	1

Every Denver player targeted in this game

Player	Targets	Rec	Yards	TD
Jaylen Waddle	10	8	138	0
Nate Adkins	3	3	32	1
Tyler Badie	3	2	28	0
Troy Franklin	2	1	27	0
Courtland Sutton	4	3	25	0
Jonah Coleman	3	3	19	0
Evan Engram	1	1	17	0
Adam Prentice	1	1	2	0
Pat Bryant	1	0	0	0
Lil'Jordan Humphrey	1	0	0	0

Why it matters. Denver has not had a receiver clear 130 yards often: four times in eight seasons, against a Jacksonville secondary twice. Waddle produced nearly half of Nix's 288 passing yards on a third of his attempts, and the two biggest catches were the ones that set up points, the 49-yarder that led to a field goal and the third-down conversion on the tying drive. After a 2-yard debut, this is the first evidence of what the trade was for.

Denver's fourth win from 10 or more down in the second half since Sean Payton arrived, tied with Cleveland for the most in the league since 2023.

Milestone

Denver's comeback wins under Payton: at Chicago in Week 4 of 2023, down 21 in the second half and won 31-28; at Philadelphia in Week 5 of 2025, down 14, won 21-17; against the Giants in Week 7 of 2025, down 19, won 33-32; and this one, down 10, won 20-13. In regular-season games since 2023 only Cleveland has as many, and eight teams have three. It was also Denver's first home win over Jacksonville since 2013. The Jaguars had won both visits in between, 26-24 in 2019 and 34-20 on December 21 of last year, nine months before this game.

Wins after trailing by 10 or more in the second half, regular season 2023 to 2026

Team	Wins
CLE	4
DEN	4
ARI	3
BUF	3
CHI	3
DET	3
HOU	3
LA	3
MIN	3
PHI	3

Denver's four, 2023 to 2026

Season	Week	Game	Largest 2nd-half deficit	Final
2023	4	at CHI	21	DEN 31, CHI 28
2025	5	at PHI	14	DEN 21, PHI 17
2025	7	vs NYG	19	DEN 33, NYG 32
2026	2	vs JAX	10	DEN 20, JAX 13

Jaguars at Broncos, every meeting in Denver since 1999

Season	Week	Score	Winner
2007	3	JAX 23, DEN 14	JAX
2008	6	JAX 24, DEN 17	JAX
2013	6	DEN 35, JAX 19	DEN
2019	4	JAX 26, DEN 24	JAX
2025	16	JAX 34, DEN 20	JAX
2026	2	DEN 20, JAX 13	DEN

Why it matters. Four second-half comebacks from double digits in a little over three seasons is a pattern, not a one-off, and it puts Denver level with Cleveland at the top of a list where most of the league has one or two. The home record against Jacksonville is the other half of the context: Denver had lost three of its last four home meetings and the last one by 14 points, so this is the first time in 13 years the Broncos have sent Jacksonville home from Denver with a loss.

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