Game recap

Saints @ Ravens

2026 Wk 2 · BAL 17, NO 24

The Saints never led until 1:32 remained, then Blackmon picked off Jackson at the 7 to seal it.

FanIQ Research · September 21, 2026 · 5 facts, every one from the play-by-play

Baltimore succeeded on 63.6 percent of its plays and lost. Only three losing offenses since 1999 have been more efficient.

Rare

Losing offenses with the highest success rate, 50 or more pass and run plays, 1999 to 2026

Season	Wk	Game	Score	Loser	Plays	Success%	EPA/play
2007	13	JAX @ IND	IND 28, JAX 25	JAX	63	66.7%	+0.287
2025	5	KC @ JAX	JAX 31, KC 28	KC	63	65.1%	+0.189
2003	15	SF @ CIN	CIN 41, SF 38	SF	60	65.0%	+0.333
2026	2	NO @ BAL	BAL 17, NO 24	BAL	55	63.6%	+0.116
2020	1	GB @ MIN	MIN 34, GB 43	MIN	52	63.5%	+0.310
2005	6	ATL @ NO	NO 31, ATL 34	NO	67	62.7%	+0.086
2024	18	CAR @ ATL	ATL 38, CAR 44	ATL	77	62.3%	+0.292
2025	4	NYJ @ MIA	MIA 27, NYJ 21	NYJ	58	62.1%	+0.159

This game, both offenses (pass and run plays)

Team	Plays	Success%	EPA/play	Yards	First downs	Points
BAL	55	63.6%	+0.116	312	19	17
NO	64	45.3%	+0.149	301	17	24

Since 1999 there have been 7,289 losing team-games. Twenty-three of those losers succeeded on 60 percent or more of their plays, and only four reached 63.6 percent, Baltimore among them. The Ravens stayed ahead of the chains all afternoon and still finished with 17 points: their per play EPA, plus 0.116, is the lowest of the top five entries, and the Saints beat it at plus 0.149 while succeeding on only 45.3 percent of their own snaps.

Why it matters. Success rate rewards staying on schedule; EPA rewards the plays that actually move the scoreboard. Baltimore won the first measure and lost the second because its second half produced 84 yards, two sacks and an interception, while New Orleans built its afternoon on a handful of explosive throws and two fourth-and-1 conversions. An offense this efficient losing at home is a once-every-few-seasons event, and this version is the least explosive one on the list.

New Orleans did not lead until 1:32 remained, then Blackmon's interception at the 7 ended it

Trend

Baltimore scored first on a Derrick Henry direct-snap touchdown and led 7-0, 14-3 and 17-9. The Saints' worst point was 11 down, at 14-3 in the final seconds of the first half. From 17-9 they scored the last 15 points: a 21-yard Shough touchdown to Chris Olave with a Travis Etienne two-point run to tie at 17, then a 16-play, 68-yard drive that took 6:34 off the clock and ended with Shough's fourth-and-1 sneak at 1:32. Lamar Jackson got Baltimore to the New Orleans 37 with 20 seconds left, and Julian Blackmon intercepted his deep throw for Rashod Bateman at the 7.

Scoring plays and the final turnover

Qtr	Clock	Team	Play	Score after
1	2:57	BAL	Henry 1-yd TD run, direct snap	BAL 7, NO 0
2	10:15	BAL	Loop 49-yd FG blocked by Granderson	BAL 7, NO 0
2	3:49	NO	Carlson 23-yd FG	BAL 7, NO 3
2	0:28	BAL	Jackson 22-yd TD pass to Bateman	BAL 14, NO 3
2	0:02	NO	Carlson 47-yd FG	BAL 14, NO 6
3	11:05	NO	Carlson 51-yd FG	BAL 14, NO 9
3	3:28	BAL	Loop 49-yd FG	BAL 17, NO 9
4	9:47	NO	Shough 21-yd TD pass to Olave, Etienne 2-pt run	BAL 17, NO 17
4	1:32	NO	Shough 1-yd TD run on 4th and 1	NO 24, BAL 17
4	0:20	NO	Blackmon intercepts Jackson at the NO 7	NO 24, BAL 17

Winners whose first lead came inside the final 2:00 of regulation, 2025 to 2026

Season	Wk	Game	Score	Winner	Clock at first snap while leading
2026	2	NO @ BAL	BAL 17, NO 24	NO	1:28
2025	15	CAR @ NO	NO 20, CAR 17	NO	0:02
2025	12	PHI @ DAL	DAL 24, PHI 21	DAL	0:00
2025	10	JAX @ HOU	HOU 36, JAX 29	HOU	0:31
2025	8	NYJ @ CIN	CIN 38, NYJ 39	NYJ	1:54
2025	7	GB @ ARI	ARI 23, GB 27	GB	1:50
2025	7	NYG @ DEN	DEN 33, NYG 32	DEN	1:51
2025	5	TEN @ ARI	ARI 21, TEN 22	TEN	0:00
2025	3	GB @ CLE	CLE 13, GB 10	CLE	0:00
2025	2	JAX @ CIN	CIN 31, JAX 27	CIN	0:18

How often the winner's first lead comes inside the final 2:00 of regulation

Span	Decided games	Winner led for the first time inside 2:00	Share
1999 to 2026	7,289	157	2.2%
2025 regular season	271	9	3.3%

Why it matters. A team that never leads until the final two minutes has, by definition, played the whole game from behind against a defense that could sit on the lead, and it wins about one game in 46 this way. What made this one repeatable rather than lucky is the shape of the winning drive: 16 plays that consumed 6:34, two third-down conversions and a fourth-down sneak, leaving Baltimore 92 seconds on the clock. The interception at the 7 was the first time all game the Ravens had turned it over.

Baltimore led by 8 entering the fourth quarter and ran 8 offensive plays in it. Six other teams since 1999 have lost that way.

Anomaly

Losers that led by 8 or more entering the 4th quarter and ran 8 or fewer pass and run plays in it, regulation only, 1999 to 2026

Season	Wk	Game	Score	Loser	Lead entering Q4	Q4 plays
1999	16	IND @ CLE	CLE 28, IND 29	CLE	9	6
2004	11	DET @ MIN	MIN 22, DET 19	DET	12	7
2008	3	LV @ BUF	BUF 24, LV 23	LV	9	6
2014	11	PIT @ TEN	TEN 24, PIT 27	TEN	11	7
2017	13	PIT @ CIN	CIN 20, PIT 23	CIN	10	8
2020	9	NE @ NYJ	NYJ 27, NE 30	NYJ	10	4
2026	2	NO @ BAL	BAL 17, NO 24	BAL	8	8

Fourth quarter, both offenses (pass and run plays)

Team	Plays	Yards	EPA/play	First downs	Sacks	INT
NO	26	140	+0.497	9	0	0
BAL	8	43	-0.227	2	0	1

Baltimore had the ball twice in the fourth quarter. The first possession, starting after the Saints tied it at 17, lasted three plays: Jackson's deep incompletion on third-and-1 at 8:21 forced a punt from the Ravens' own 37 at 8:14. New Orleans then ran 16 plays and 6:34 off the clock. The second possession began at 1:21 and ended with the interception at 0:20. In between, the Saints ran 26 plays for 140 yards and nine first downs; Baltimore ran eight for 43. The 2008 entry is the Raiders at Buffalo.

Why it matters. A lead of 8 or more at the start of the fourth quarter normally lets the team in front control the clock, which is why fewer than one such game a season goes the other way with the leader barely touching the ball. Baltimore never got to protect its lead because the three-and-out at 17-17 handed possession back immediately, and the Saints' 16-play drive was long enough that the Ravens' only real chance was an 81-second drive that started at 1:21. Volume, not efficiency, decided the quarter: 26 plays to 8.

Baltimore gained 228 yards on 31 plays before halftime and 84 on 24 plays after it

Split

Score at the end of each quarter

Quarter	BAL	NO	Plays
1	7	0	35
2	14	3	40
3	17	9	38
4	17	24	43

Offense by half, both teams (pass and run plays)

Team	Half	Plays	Yards	EPA/play	Success%
BAL	1st	31	228	+0.382	71.0%
BAL	2nd	24	84	-0.228	54.2%
NO	1st	28	137	+0.001	35.7%
NO	2nd	36	164	+0.265	52.8%

Baltimore by play type and half

Half	Runs	Passes	Run EPA/play	Pass EPA/play	Henry carries	Henry yards
1st	14	17	+0.194	+0.538	11	51
2nd	8	16	+0.035	-0.359	5	17

The Ravens' first half was as good as offense gets: plus 0.382 EPA per play and a 71 percent success rate, with the passing game at plus 0.538 per pass play. After the break the same offense produced 84 yards on 24 plays, two sacks in the third quarter, and a passing game at minus 0.359 per pass play. Derrick Henry carried 11 times for 51 yards in the first half and 5 times for 17 in the second. New Orleans moved the other way, from 35.7 percent success to 52.8 percent.

Why it matters. Both halves are real samples, 31 plays and 24, so this is not a one-drive artifact. The run game did not collapse (plus 0.194 to plus 0.035) so much as disappear from the plan: eight second-half carries for the league's most run-heavy 2025 offense, while the passing game went from the best unit on the field to the worst. Whether that reflects the Saints' halftime adjustments or Baltimore's own play selection, the scoreboard swing tracks the passing split almost exactly.

All three Saints wins over the Ravens have come in Baltimore. New Orleans is 0-3 against them at home.

Milestone

Saints vs Ravens, every meeting in the database

Season	Wk	Game	Score	Winner	Site for NO
1999	15	NO @ BAL	BAL 31, NO 8	BAL	Away
2002	14	NO @ BAL	BAL 25, NO 37	NO	Away
2006	8	BAL @ NO	NO 22, BAL 35	BAL	Home
2010	15	NO @ BAL	BAL 30, NO 24	BAL	Away
2014	12	BAL @ NO	NO 27, BAL 34	BAL	Home
2018	7	NO @ BAL	BAL 23, NO 24	NO	Away
2022	9	BAL @ NO	NO 13, BAL 27	BAL	Home
2026	2	NO @ BAL	BAL 17, NO 24	NO	Away

Ravens losses after leading by 11 or more, 2020 to 2026

Season	Wk	Game	Score	Largest BAL lead	Site for BAL
2020	11	TEN @ BAL	BAL 24, TEN 30	11	Home
2021	1	BAL @ LV	LV 33, BAL 27	14	Away
2022	2	MIA @ BAL	BAL 38, MIA 42	21	Home
2022	4	BUF @ BAL	BAL 20, BUF 23	17	Home
2023	10	CLE @ BAL	BAL 31, CLE 33	15	Home
2025	1	BAL @ BUF	BUF 41, BAL 40	15	Away
2025	16	NE @ BAL	BAL 24, NE 28	11	Home
2026	2	NO @ BAL	BAL 17, NO 24	11	Home

Eight meetings since 1999. Baltimore has won all three in New Orleans, and the Saints have now won three of five in Baltimore, in 2002, 2018 and this game, the last two by one score. Since 1999 the Ravens have lost 15 games in which they led by 11 or more, and three of those have come since the start of last season: at Buffalo to open 2025, at home to New England in Week 16, and this one.

Why it matters. The home-and-away pattern is a small sample, but it is a clean one: eight games, and the visiting Saints have done all of the winning for their side. The more current thread is the second table. Baltimore had blown an 11-point lead only 12 times in the 26 seasons before 2025; it has now done it three times in 13 months, twice at home, and this is the first under Jesse Minter. That is the kind of cluster a new staff gets asked about.

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