Game recap

Bengals @ Steelers

2026 Wk 3 · PIT 30, CIN 27

Four second half lead changes, then a strip sack of Burrow with 53 seconds left ended it.

FanIQ Research · September 27, 2026 · 6 facts, every one from the play-by-play

Eleven times since 1999 a team down 3 or fewer has lost a fumble on a sack in the final minute inside the opponent's half. The trailing team lost all eleven.

Rare

Sacks that produced a lost fumble: trailing by 1 to 3, final 60 seconds of the 4th quarter, ball at or inside the opponent's 50, 1999 to 2026

Season	Game	Type	Passer	Sacked by	Clock	Score before	Final
2002	LA @ WAS	REG	K.Warner	L.Arrington	:17	LA 17, WAS 20	WAS 20, LA 17
2003	PHI @ GB	REG	B.Favre	not listed	:08	GB 14, PHI 17	PHI 17, GB 14
2005	LV @ WAS	REG	M.Brunell	D.Burgess	:17	WAS 13, LV 16	LV 16, WAS 13
2006	LA @ GB	REG	B.Favre	J.Kennedy	:44	GB 20, LA 23	LA 23, GB 20
2006	NYJ @ NE	REG	T.Brady	S.Ellis	:09	NE 14, NYJ 17	NYJ 17, NE 14
2015	MIN @ ARI	REG	T.Bridgewater	D.Freeney	:13	MIN 20, ARI 23	ARI 23, MIN 20
2016	CAR @ LV	REG	C.Newton	K.Mack	1:00	CAR 32, LV 35	LV 35, CAR 32
2020	NYG @ CIN	REG	B.Allen	J.Sheard	:57	CIN 17, NYG 19	NYG 19, CIN 17
2021	CIN @ KC	CON	P.Mahomes	S.Hubbard	:39	KC 21, CIN 24	CIN 27, KC 24
2024	ATL @ NO	REG	K.Cousins	C.Young	:41	ATL 17, NO 20	NO 20, ATL 17
2026	CIN @ PIT	REG	J.Burrow	D.Harmon	:53	CIN 27, PIT 30	PIT 30, CIN 27

Cincinnati's final drive, trailing 30 to 27

Clock	Down	Spot	Play	Result
2:08	1st and 10	CIN 30	Burrow to Chase	17 yards
2:00	1st and 10	CIN 47	Burrow to C.Brown	-4 yards
1:25	2nd and 14	CIN 43	Burrow to Gesicki	6 yards
:58	3rd and 8	CIN 49	Burrow to Chase	13 yards, first down
:53	1st and 10	PIT 38	Burrow sacked by D.Harmon	Fumble, recovered by PIT

Cincinnati needed a field goal to force overtime and had first down at the Pittsburgh 38 with 53 seconds left, a 45 percent win probability by the play by play model. Derrick Harmon's sack knocked the ball loose, S.Joseph recovered at the Cincinnati 49, and two Rodgers kneels ended it. Pittsburgh's win probability went from 55 percent to 97 percent on the one snap, the largest swing of the game. Cincinnati now appears three times in this list: it lost this way to the Giants in 2020, and it won this way in the 2021 AFC Championship Game when Sam Hubbard stripped Patrick Mahomes.

Why it matters. A sack fumble in this spot is the one outcome that ends the game on the spot. An incompletion or a regular sack still leaves a field goal attempt on the table, which is why this cohort is so small across 27 seasons and why no team in it has recovered. The Bengals had moved 32 yards in four plays and were already near long field goal range, so the play did not just cost yards, it converted a coin flip into a loss.

Cincinnati never led in the first half. Then the lead changed hands four times after halftime.

Trend

Every scoring play plus the two takeaways that moved the game, with Pittsburgh's win probability after each

Qtr	Clock	Play	PIT	CIN	PIT win prob
1	13:17	Rodgers 38 yd TD to R.Wilson	7	0	69.8%
1	5:54	Burrow 3 yd TD to Chase	7	7	54.4%
1	:57	Rodgers 23 yd TD to Skowronek	14	7	70.6%
2	10:20	McPherson 50 yd FG	14	10	66.4%
2	7:10	Boswell 44 yd FG	17	10	70.4%
2	:39	Burrow 28 yd TD to Higgins	17	17	52.1%
3	8:26	McPherson 38 yd FG	17	20	44.0%
3	2:48	Rodgers 6 yd TD to Metcalf	24	20	68.2%
4	13:33	Burrow 25 yd TD to Gesicki, 4th and 2	24	27	41.3%
4	11:04	CIN muffs punt, PIT recovers at CIN 14	24	27	59.2%
4	8:48	Boswell 36 yd FG	27	27	52.3%
4	2:18	Boswell 33 yd FG	30	27	71.2%
4	:53	Burrow strip sacked, PIT recovers	30	27	96.7%

Pittsburgh led 14 to 7 after the first quarter and 17 to 16 at the half. Cincinnati's first lead of the day came on McPherson's 38 yard field goal with 8:26 left in the third, and from there the lead flipped on four straight scoring plays: Metcalf's touchdown, Gesicki's fourth down touchdown, and two Boswell field goals sandwiched around a 27 all tie. Pittsburgh's win probability bottomed out at 32.9 percent as it lined up to punt from its own 36 with 11:04 left, one snap before the muff.

Why it matters. Lead changes concentrated in one half tell you the game was decided by sequence, not by one team wearing the other down. Both offenses stayed above zero EPA per play for the day, so neither defense took over; the swing came from field position. The muffed punt handed Pittsburgh a first down at the Cincinnati 14 and turned a probable Bengals possession up three into a tie game, and every Pittsburgh point after that came from Boswell's leg rather than the end zone.

The league's second and third ranked defenses through two weeks gave up 27 and 30 points to offenses ranked 19th and 31st.

Anomaly

EPA per play allowed, 2026 weeks 1 and 2, league top 5

Rank	Defense	Plays faced	EPA/play allowed
1	LV	112	-0.250
2	CIN	127	-0.222
3	PIT	108	-0.202
4	SEA	114	-0.199
5	NE	114	-0.182

Offense in this game against the 2026 weeks 1 and 2 baseline

Offense	Wk 1 to 2 EPA/play	Wk 1 to 2 rank	This game plays	This game EPA/play	Success%
CIN	-0.045	19	56	0.281	55.4%
PIT	-0.330	31	56	0.201	48.2%

Cincinnati entered allowing minus 0.222 EPA per play, second best in the league, and Pittsburgh entered at minus 0.202, third. In this game the Bengals defense allowed plus 0.201 per play and the Steelers defense plus 0.281. Both offenses came in with negative season numbers and both finished the day well above zero, a swing of about 0.33 per play for Cincinnati and 0.53 for Pittsburgh.

Why it matters. Two week defensive rankings are built on roughly 110 plays, so a single game can move them a long way, and this one did: each defense allowed three touchdown passes and finished the day above plus 0.20 EPA per play allowed. The more durable signal may be on the other side: Pittsburgh's offense, 31st through two weeks, produced 413 yards and its first game above zero EPA per play this season.

Pittsburgh averaged 0.785 EPA per play in the first quarter and minus 0.013 the rest of the way. It still won.

Split

Pittsburgh offense, first quarter versus quarters 2 through 4

Segment	Plays	Yards	EPA/play	Success%	TD	First downs
1st quarter	15	159	0.785	60.0%	2	8
Quarters 2 to 4	41	254	-0.013	43.9%	1	12

Both offenses by quarter (pass and run plays)

Team	Qtr	Plays	Yards	EPA/play	Success%
PIT	1	15	159	0.785	60.0%
PIT	2	14	99	-0.115	42.9%
PIT	3	11	59	0.174	54.5%
PIT	4	16	96	-0.053	37.5%
CIN	1	13	90	0.538	69.2%
CIN	2	16	96	0.249	50.0%
CIN	3	16	111	0.371	56.3%
CIN	4	11	55	-0.108	45.5%

Pittsburgh's two fourth quarter trips inside the Cincinnati 20

Clock	Down	Spot	Play	Drive result
9:28	3rd and 5	CIN 9	Rodgers sacked for -9	Boswell 36 yd FG, 27 to 27
3:03	3rd and 5	CIN 5	Rodgers sacked for -10	Boswell 33 yd FG, 30 to 27

Rodgers' first quarter was two touchdown drives on 15 plays, including the 38 yard strike to R.Wilson and the 23 yard score to Skowronek. Over the final three quarters Pittsburgh scored 16 points on 41 plays, and its two fourth quarter possessions that reached the red zone both ended with third down sacks at the 9 and the 5. Pittsburgh ran 9 red zone snaps in the game and scored one touchdown on them, yet the two field goals those sacks forced were the six points that decided it.

Why it matters. A first quarter this efficient usually predicts a comfortable game, and the collapse to roughly zero afterward is why Cincinnati was able to take the lead twice. The red zone rows are the mechanism: two third-and-5 snaps from inside the 10 lost 19 yards between them, turning two likely touchdowns into 6 points instead of 14. Pittsburgh won anyway because the field position from the muffed punt made even those six points enough.

Rodgers became the second passer since 1999 to throw three touchdowns in a regular season game after turning 42. The other one did it 21 times.

Milestone

Every passer with a regular season pass attempt at age 42 or older, 1999 to 2026

Passer	Games at 42+	Pass TD at 42+	Best single game
Tom Brady	66	132	5
Vinny Testaverde	9	7	2
Aaron Rodgers	8	9	3
Doug Flutie	4	1	1
Philip Rivers	3	4	2
Warren Moon	3	1	1

Rodgers' three 2026 games

Week	Opponent	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT
1	ATL	24	40	221	1	0
2	at NE	23	39	187	0	1
3	CIN	19	33	292	3	1

Rodgers was born December 2, 1983, so he was 42 years and about 10 months old on Sunday. His three scoring throws went 38 yards to R.Wilson, 23 to Skowronek and 6 to Metcalf, and the 292 yards were his most in a game this season by more than 70. Among the six passers who have attempted a regular season pass at 42 or older since 1999, only Brady had reached three touchdowns in a game before this one.

Why it matters. Quarterbacks who play past 42 are rare enough that the entire cohort since 1999 fits in one small table, and Brady accounts for 66 of the 93 regular season games in it. He is the only reference point for a starter producing at that age, which is why one three touchdown game is a real marker rather than a curiosity. It also came in Rodgers' best game of the season after two weeks in which Pittsburgh's offense ranked 31st in EPA per play.

Burrow beat Rodgers by 0.14 EPA per dropback and Cincinnati's offense was the more efficient one. Three non-offensive plays outweighed the gap.

Comparison

Quarterbacks in this game

Passer	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Sacked	Dropbacks	EPA/dropback	Success%
Joe Burrow	28	37	282	3	0	1	38	0.386	57.9%
Aaron Rodgers	19	33	292	3	1	2	35	0.245	48.6%

Top performers

Player	Team	Line
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN	9 catches, 98 yards, 1 TD on 12 targets
Tee Higgins	CIN	6 catches, 90 yards, 1 TD
Jaylen Warren	PIT	17 carries, 127 yards, plus 3 catches for 49
Darnell Washington	PIT	3 catches, 67 yards, including a 47 yarder
Chase Brown	CIN	13 carries, 61 yards

The three takeaways, by expected points and win probability

Qtr	Clock	Play	Gained by	EPA	Win prob swing
2	1:46	Rodgers intercepted by J.Battle	CIN	3.14	9.7 pts
4	11:04	CIN muffs punt, recovered at CIN 14	PIT	5.45	26.3 pts
4	:53	Burrow strip sacked by D.Harmon	PIT	4.09	41.9 pts

Cincinnati's offense averaged 0.281 EPA per play to Pittsburgh's 0.201 and Burrow was the more efficient passer on completion rate, EPA per dropback and success rate, with zero interceptions, while Rodgers averaged more yards per attempt. Pittsburgh out-gained Cincinnati in raw yards, 413 to 352, on the strength of Warren's 127 on the ground. Cincinnati's offense finished with 15.72 expected points added to Pittsburgh's 11.23, a gap of about 4.5. The muffed punt and the strip sack were worth 9.54 expected points to Pittsburgh combined, roughly double that gap, and Battle's interception gave only 3.14 of it back.

Why it matters. Burrow's edge was real but it was built on volume of short and intermediate completions: 28 of 37 for 282 is 7.6 yards per attempt, while Rodgers hit 8.8 per attempt on fewer throws with deep shots to R.Wilson and Washington. That profile means Cincinnati needed every possession to end in points, and it lost two of them to plays its offense never ran. The lesson for the Bengals is that the offense was good enough to win this game; the special teams and the final snap were not.

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