FanIQ

FanIQ › Games

Game recap

Seahawks @ Commanders

2026 Wk 3 · WAS 33, SEA 31

Both kickers hit from 57 in the same quarter, then a 50-yard pick-six with 4:09 left decided it.

Jason Myers and Drew Stevens each made a 57-yard field goal in the final minute of the first half. Only one other game since 1999 has had both teams connect from 57 or more in the same quarter.

Rare

Games since 1999 in which both teams made a field goal of 57 or more yards

SeasonGameFirst kickSecond kick
2011CHI @ DENGould (CHI) 57, Q4Prater (DEN) 59, Q4
2017CAR @ NOGano (CAR) 58, Q2Lutz (NO) 57, Q3
2019TB @ LAZuerlein (LA) 58, Q2Gay (TB) 58, Q3
2025PIT @ LACBoswell (PIT) 59, Q1Dicker (LAC) 59, Q3
2025NO @ TENSmyth (NO) 57, Q3Slye (TEN) 58, Q4
2026BAL @ INDLoop (BAL) 57, Q2Shrader (IND) 58, Q3
2026SEA @ WASMyers (SEA) 57, Q2 0:57Stevens (WAS) 57, Q2 0:03

Made field goals of 57 or more yards, league wide, by season

SeasonMade 57+
20219
202220
202320
202431
202541
2026 (through this game)14

Myers hit from 57 with 57 seconds left in the half to cut Washington's lead to 14-10. Fifty-four seconds later Stevens answered from the same distance to make it 17-10 at the break. Seven games since 1999 have had a 57-plus make from each side, and four of the seven have come since November 2025. The only other time both kicks landed in the same quarter was Chicago at Denver in Week 14 of 2011.

Why it matters. A 57-yard field goal was a one-or-two-a-season event league wide for most of the 2000s, and it is now a weekly one: 41 were made in 2025 against 9 in 2021. Two in 54 seconds from opposite sidelines is still an outlier even against that curve, and both kicks changed the shape of the game. Without them Washington leads 14-7 at halftime instead of 17-10, and the final two-point margin does not exist.

Seattle outgained Washington by 177 yards and lost. A winner has been outgained by that much in 115 of 6,995 regular-season games since 1999.

Anomaly

This game, both offenses (pass and run plays)

TeamPlaysYardsFirst downsEPA/playSuccess%Turnovers
SEA6443725-0.04650.0%3
WAS6326015-0.08031.7%0

Largest yardage deficit by a winning team, regular season since 1999

SeasonGameWinnerWinner ydsLoser ydsDeficitFinal
2000NYJ @ BALBAL144524380BAL 34, NYJ 20
2002HOU @ PITHOU48422374HOU 24, PIT 6
2020LA @ MIAMIA147471324MIA 28, LA 17
2006PHI @ TBTB196506310TB 23, PHI 21
2006JAX @ TENTEN99397298TEN 24, JAX 17
2026SEA @ WASWAS260437177WAS 33, SEA 31

How often the winner is outgained, regular season since 1999

GamesWinner outgained at allBy 100+By 150+By 177+
6,9952,201 (31.5%)531 (7.6%)199 (2.8%)115 (1.6%)

Seattle ran one more play than Washington and gained 177 more yards on them, with ten more first downs. Washington's offense finished at minus 0.080 EPA per play, worse than Seattle's minus 0.046, and still left with the win. Roughly one winner in 60 since 1999 has been outgained by 177 or more.

Why it matters. Yardage and first downs describe how the game was played between the 20s, and by those measures Seattle controlled it. What the box score misses is that three of Seattle's 64 plays ended in a turnover and all three became Washington touchdowns, one of them scored directly by the defense. A team can lose a game it outgains by 177 yards only when the field position it gives away is worth more than the yards it keeps, which is exactly what happened here.

Kain Medrano's 50-yard pick-six with 4:09 left is one of seven since 1999 scored by the winning team inside the final five minutes of a game decided by three points or fewer.

Rare

Pick-sixes by the winning team in the final five minutes of a game decided by 3 or fewer, regular season 1999-2026

SeasonGameReturned byClockScore beforeFinal
1999TEN @ NOTEN2:58NO 13, TEN 17TEN 24, NO 21
2003CIN @ LVLV4:04CIN 13, LV 13LV 23, CIN 20
2005DAL @ PHIDAL2:53PHI 20, DAL 14DAL 21, PHI 20
2012LV @ ATLATL2:55LV 13, ATL 13ATL 23, LV 20
2013SEA @ HOUSEA2:51HOU 20, SEA 13SEA 23, HOU 20
2021TEN @ INDTEN1:33IND 24, TEN 24TEN 34, IND 31
2026SEA @ WASWAS4:09SEA 24, WAS 27WAS 33, SEA 31

Washington points off Seattle turnovers

QtrClockTurnoverBall atPlays to scoreResultPoints
111:06Jadarian Price fumble, recovered by Tim SettleSEA 214Mariota 6-yd TD pass to Rachaad White7
312:10Darnold intercepted by Sonny StylesSEA 433Mariota 30-yd TD pass to Terry McLaurin7
44:09Darnold intercepted by Kain MedranoMidfield0Medrano 50-yd return TD, extra point missed6

Seattle had just gained 26 yards on a throw to Jaxon Smith-Njigba and sat at the Washington 49, down 27-24, when Darnold's second-and-15 pass to AJ Barner was picked off at midfield and returned 50 yards. The play cost Seattle 8.7 expected points and 28.8 points of win probability, the largest swing in the game by a wide margin. Twenty-eight winning teams since 1999 have scored a fourth-quarter pick-six in a game decided by three or fewer; only these seven came inside the final five minutes. Washington's three touchdowns off turnovers account for 20 of its 33 points.

Why it matters. A defensive touchdown with four minutes left in a three-point game is close to the most decisive single play a defense can produce, because it scores and takes a possession away at the same time. Seattle still answered with a touchdown drive and finished two points short, which means the missed extra point after the return did not matter but the return itself did. Every Washington touchdown in this game started with a Seattle giveaway, and the defense scored 6 of Washington's 16 second-half points itself.

Sam Darnold threw for 379 yards and four touchdowns, Marcus Mariota for 183 and three. The 196-yard gap belonged to the loser.

Comparison

Both starting quarterbacks, this game

PasserTeamCompAttYardsTDINTSacked
Sam DarnoldSEA3145379420
Marcus MariotaWAS1931183302

Passers with 4+ TD passes and a pick-six in a regular-season loss, 2021-2026 (8 of 21 since 1999)

SeasonWeekPasserTDINTPick-sixFinal
20263Sam Darnold421WAS 33, SEA 31
202518Joe Burrow411CLE 20, CIN 18
202514Joe Burrow421BUF 39, CIN 34
202413Jameis Winston432DEN 41, CLE 32
202315Easton Stick411LV 63, LAC 21
20227Andy Dalton432ARI 42, NO 34
20224Jared Goff411SEA 48, DET 45
20218Tom Brady421NO 36, TB 27

Darnold's career games with 4 or more TD passes

SeasonWeekTeamOpponentYardsTDINTResult
201911NYJWAS29341W 34-17
20243MINHOU18140W 34-7
202414MINATL34750W 42-21
20255SEATB34141L 35-38
20259SEAWAS33041W 38-14
20263SEAWAS37942L 31-33

The 379 yards are a regular-season career high for Darnold, two more than his 377 against Green Bay in Week 17 of 2024. He has now thrown four or more touchdown passes in six regular-season games, and his team has lost two of them, both by three points or fewer. Twenty-one passers since 1999 have thrown four touchdowns and a pick-six in a regular-season loss; Darnold is the first since Joe Burrow did it twice in the final month of 2025. Mariota needed 14 fewer attempts and produced 196 fewer yards, and the difference was that none of his throws went the other way.

Why it matters. Passing yards are the stat that usually tracks the winner, and here they tracked the loser by nearly 200. The mechanism is the two interceptions: one gave Washington a 43-yard field for a touchdown and the other was a touchdown by itself, so Darnold's day carried 13 points for the other team against 28 for his own. Mariota's line looks modest until you notice it contains zero giveaways in a game where the opponent's three giveaways were worth 20 points.

Take away three plays and Seattle's offense averaged plus 0.26 EPA per snap. Those three plays cost 18.8 expected points.

Split

Seattle offense, this game, turnover plays versus everything else (pass and run plays)

GroupPlaysYardsEPA totalEPA/play
Turnover plays31-18.76-6.255
All other plays61436+15.79+0.259
All plays64437-2.97-0.046

Offense by half, both teams (pass and run plays)

TeamHalfPlaysYardsEPA/playSuccess%
SEA1st35204-0.17337.1%
SEA2nd29233+0.10665.5%
WAS1st32134+0.00137.5%
WAS2nd31126-0.16325.8%

Seattle's 61 non-turnover snaps produced 436 yards at plus 0.259 EPA per play, a number that wins most games comfortably. The fumble on the first snap of Seattle's second possession, the third-quarter interception and the pick-six together were worth minus 18.76, enough to drag the whole afternoon to minus 0.046. The half split shows the same offense getting better as the game went on: 65.5 percent of Seattle's second-half plays were successful against 25.8 percent for Washington, and Seattle outgained Washington 233 to 126 after the break and outscored it 21 to 16, yet the 17-10 halftime hole and the pick-six left it two points short.

Why it matters. EPA per play is additive, so three plays can erase 61 good ones if they are bad enough, and a pick-six returned 50 yards is about as bad as a single snap gets. This split separates how Seattle's offense functioned from how the game was decided: the function was strong, the decision came from ball security. Washington's offense was worse in both halves than Seattle's second half, and 6 of its 16 second-half points came from the defense rather than the offense, which is what a game won on turnovers looks like in the play data.

Washington is 9-4 against Seattle in the regular season. Seattle is 3-0 against Washington in the playoffs.

Milestone

Every Seahawks versus Commanders meeting in the database, 1999-2026

SeasonRoundScoreWinnerMargin
2001Wk 8WAS 27, SEA 14WAS13
2002Wk 9WAS 14, SEA 3WAS11
2003Wk 10WAS 27, SEA 20WAS7
2005Wk 4WAS 20, SEA 17WAS3
2005DivisionalSEA 20, WAS 10SEA10
2007Wild CardSEA 35, WAS 14SEA21
2008Wk 12WAS 20, SEA 17WAS3
2011Wk 12WAS 23, SEA 17WAS6
2012Wild CardSEA 24, WAS 14SEA10
2014Wk 5SEA 27, WAS 17SEA10
2017Wk 9WAS 17, SEA 14WAS3
2020Wk 15SEA 20, WAS 15SEA5
2021Wk 12WAS 17, SEA 15WAS2
2023Wk 10SEA 29, WAS 26SEA3
2025Wk 9SEA 38, WAS 14SEA24
2026Wk 3WAS 33, SEA 31WAS2

Series record by game type

Game typeWAS winsSEA wins
Regular season94
Playoffs03
All meetings97

Sixteen meetings since 1999, nine of them decided by seven points or fewer and six by three or fewer. Washington's last two wins in the series, in 2021 and now 2026, were both by two points. The 2025 meeting was the most lopsided of the sixteen at 24 points; ten months later the same two teams played the closest one. This is also Washington's first home win over Seattle since that 2021 game.

Why it matters. The split between regular season and playoffs is the unusual part: Washington has won nine of thirteen regular-season meetings, yet every time the two have met with a season on the line, Seattle has advanced. That pattern says more about which franchise was the better team in January of those years than about matchups, but it makes Washington's regular-season edge look larger than the rivalry has felt. Two-point wins in 2021 and 2026 fit a series where nine of the sixteen meetings were decided by seven or fewer.

FanIQ answers any NFL stats question with receipts, on your phone.

Get FanIQ freeGet it on Google Play

One law a week, in your inbox

A single rule from the library with the seasons behind it. Nothing else.