Game recap

Jaguars @ Bengals

2026 Wk 4 · CIN 17, JAX 22

Joe Burrow threw for 428 yards, but two interceptions and a fourth-down stop sent Jacksonville to 3-1.

FanIQ Research · October 5, 2026 · 7 facts, every one from the play-by-play

428 passing yards and 17 points: Burrow is the first passer since 2018 to throw for 400 and lose while scoring 17 or fewer

Rare

Joe Burrow completed 39 of 54 passes for 428 yards, Tee Higgins caught 11 of them for 157 yards, the second-best day of his career, and Cincinnati still scored only 17. Since 1999 a passer has thrown for 400 or more yards in a regular-season loss where his team scored 17 or fewer 13 times. Four came in 2018 and none in the seven seasons after that until this game. Jacksonville threw only 23 passes to beat him; just three opponents on the list threw fewer.

400+ passing yards in a loss, team scoring 17 or fewer, regular season 1999-2026

Season	Week	Passer	Team	Opp	Yards	Score	Opp pass att
2004	12	Marc Bulger	LA	GB	448	17-45	27
2006	11	Drew Brees	NO	CIN	510	16-31	22
2006	14	Chris Weinke	CAR	NYG	423	13-27	33
2010	3	Kyle Orton	DEN	IND	476	13-27	43
2011	13	Matthew Stafford	DET	NO	461	17-31	39
2013	5	Philip Rivers	LAC	LV	411	17-27	23
2015	6	Carson Palmer	ARI	PIT	421	13-25	20
2017	8	Matthew Stafford	DET	PIT	423	15-20	31
2018	5	Blake Bortles	JAX	KC	430	14-30	38
2018	10	Ryan Fitzpatrick	TB	WAS	406	3-16	27
2018	12	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	DEN	462	17-24	28
2018	13	Nick Mullens	SF	SEA	414	16-43	17
2026	4	Joe Burrow	CIN	JAX	428	17-22	23

Quarterbacks, this game

Passer	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Sacked
Joe Burrow	39	54	428	1	2	2
Trevor Lawrence	18	23	227	1	0	4

Why it matters. Four hundred passing yards usually comes with points because the yards arrive in long drives that end in the red zone. Cincinnati's drives did get there, but they ended in a field goal after a touchdown run was nullified by penalty, an interception at the Jacksonville 10, and a turnover on downs at the 21 in the final minute. The gap between yards and points is the story of the game, and it has not been this wide for a 400-yard passer since 2018.

Down five, Cincinnati reached the Jacksonville 21 with 1:08 left, then threw four straight passes that fell short

Trend

After Burrow's 1-yard touchdown run cut it to 22-17 with 3:33 left, the Bengals used all three timeouts to get the ball back at their own 17 with 1:44 to go. Three completions, 29 yards to Mitchell Tinsley, 18 to Mike Gesicki, and 15 to Dohnte Meyers, reached the Jacksonville 21 in 36 seconds, and Cincinnati's win probability climbed to 45.6%. The next three passes were incomplete. On fourth-and-10, Burrow hit Chase Brown for 9 yards, one short, and Rayuan Lane III made the stop.

Cincinnati's last drive

Clock	Down and distance	Spot	Play	CIN win prob before
1:44	1st and 10	CIN 17	Burrow to Tinsley, 29 yds	19.3%
1:38	1st and 10	CIN 46	Burrow to Gesicki, 18 yds	26.2%
1:32	1st and 10	JAX 36	Burrow to D.Meyers, 15 yds	33.1%
1:08	1st and 10	JAX 21	Incomplete to D.Meyers	45.6%
1:05	2nd and 10	JAX 21	Incomplete to Gesicki	41.9%
1:01	3rd and 10	JAX 21	Incomplete to Tinsley	37.1%
0:56	4th and 10	JAX 21	Burrow to C.Brown, 9 yds, turnover on downs	29.8%

Scoring plays

Qtr	Clock	Team	Play	Score after
1	2:23	JAX	Little 55-yd FG	JAX 3, CIN 0
2	10:07	CIN	McPherson 29-yd FG	JAX 3, CIN 3
2	4:19	JAX	Little 28-yd FG	JAX 6, CIN 3
2	1:27	JAX	Lawrence 7-yd TD pass to B.Thomas	JAX 13, CIN 3
3	8:48	CIN	Burrow 15-yd TD pass to Gesicki	JAX 13, CIN 10
3	3:05	JAX	Little 54-yd FG	JAX 16, CIN 10
4	6:42	JAX	Rodriguez 25-yd TD run, 2-pt failed	JAX 22, CIN 10
4	3:33	CIN	Burrow 1-yd TD run	JAX 22, CIN 17

Why it matters. The drive shows both halves of Cincinnati's day: the passing game could move the ball quickly against a defense playing soft, and it could not finish once the field shrank. The fourth-down play was the largest single swing of the game, worth -0.264 win probability to Cincinnati, and it came on a completion. Jacksonville scored first on Cam Little's 55-yard field goal and never trailed; the game was last tied at 3 midway through the second quarter.

Burrow's eighth 400-yard game is the most by any passer since he entered the league in 2020

Milestone

The 428 yards gave Burrow his eighth regular-season game of 400 or more, one more than Patrick Mahomes over the same span and two more than Dak Prescott. It was also his third loss in those games and his second 428-yard loss; the other came against Baltimore in Week 10 of 2024, 35-34.

Most 400-yard passing games, regular season 2020-2026

Passer	400-yard games	W	L
Joe Burrow	8	5	3
Patrick Mahomes	7	7	0
Dak Prescott	6	3	3
Tom Brady	4	3	1
Kirk Cousins	4	3	1
Josh Allen	4	3	1

Burrow's 400-yard games

Season	Week	Opp	Comp	Att	Yards	Score	Result
2020	7	CLE	35	47	406	34-37	L
2021	7	BAL	23	38	416	41-17	W
2021	16	BAL	37	46	525	41-21	W
2021	17	KC	30	39	446	34-31	W
2022	7	ATL	34	42	481	35-17	W
2024	10	BAL	34	56	428	34-35	L
2024	17	DEN	39	49	412	30-24	W
2026	4	JAX	39	54	428	17-22	L

Why it matters. Burrow's 400-yard games split by volume: four of his five wins came on 46 or fewer attempts, and all three losses came on 47 or more, which is the signature of a team throwing because it is behind and cannot run, and this game fit it: the Bengals' 15 runs gained 23 yards.

Cincinnati ran 19 more plays and gained 112 more yards; two interceptions turned into a 7-point swing and a lost red-zone trip

Anomaly

The Bengals had 437 net yards to 325, 25 first downs to 17, and 71 plays to 52. Two Burrow interceptions undid it. With 2:00 left in the first half and Cincinnati down 6-3, Jourdan Lewis picked off a third-and-6 throw and returned it to the Cincinnati 18; Lawrence threw a 7-yard touchdown to Brian Thomas Jr. 33 seconds later. On the second play of the fourth quarter, first-and-10 at the Jacksonville 10 and down 16-10, Foye Oluokun intercepted a pass for Tinsley. Since 1999 a team has outgained the winner by 100 or more yards and lost 533 times in 7,011 decided regular-season games, about one in 13.

This game, both offenses (pass and run plays)

Team	Plays	Net yards	First downs	3rd down	Turnovers	Sacks taken	EPA/play	Points
CIN	71	437	25	6 of 12	2	2	+0.046	17
JAX	52	325	17	5 of 11	0	4	+0.213	22

Decided regular-season games, 1999-2026

Games	Loser outgained winner	By 100+ yards	By 100+ in 2025
7011	2206	533	19

Why it matters. A 112-yard advantage is worth points over a full game, but turnovers are worth more per play, and Cincinnati's came at the two worst spots. The first handed Jacksonville a short field and a 10-point halftime lead; the second erased a first down at the 10 in a one-score game. The three largest win-probability swings of the game were all Cincinnati plays: the fourth-down stop (-0.264), the fourth-quarter interception (-0.218), and the first-half interception (-0.170). Jacksonville had no turnovers, which is why its +0.213 EPA per play beat Cincinnati's +0.046 despite the yardage gap.

Lawrence's 27 dropbacks produced more per play than Burrow's 56: +0.379 EPA to +0.132

Comparison

Trevor Lawrence went 18 of 23 for 227 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions, though he was sacked four times. Per dropback, Jacksonville's passing game produced nearly three times the value of Cincinnati's: +0.379 EPA against +0.132, with the same 51.8% to 51.9% success rate. Brenton Strange led Jacksonville with 7 catches for 95 yards on 8 targets. It was Lawrence's second-best dropback game of the season, behind a +0.793 opener against Cleveland.

Dropbacks, this game (passes and sacks)

Team	Dropbacks	Yards	EPA/dropback	Success rate
JAX	27	212	+0.379	51.9%
CIN	56	414	+0.132	51.8%

Jacksonville dropbacks by week, 2026

Week	Opponent	Dropbacks	EPA/dropback
1	CLE	24	+0.793
2	DEN	31	-0.133
3	NE	29	+0.263
4	CIN	27	+0.379

Why it matters. The two offenses succeeded on passing plays at the same rate, so the gap in value came from what happened on the plays that worked and the ones that did not: Cincinnati's two interceptions cost it -11.2 EPA while Jacksonville's four sacks cost -4.23, and Lawrence's completions came in bigger chunks per attempt, 9.9 yards against Burrow's 7.9. Jacksonville did not need volume; 27 dropbacks and 25 runs were enough because none of them gave the ball away.

Cincinnati threw on 78.9% of its plays, its highest rate of the season, after its 15 runs gained 23 yards

Split

The Bengals' run game had gained at least 83 yards in each of their first three games. Here Chase Brown carried 9 times for 10 yards, Samaje Perine 3 for 7, and Burrow 3 for 6, a combined -0.275 EPA per run with a 26.7% success rate. Brown still caught all 11 of his targets, for 71 yards. Cincinnati's pass rate has risen every week this season, from 58.1% in Week 1 to 78.9% here.

Cincinnati offense by week, 2026 (pass and run plays)

Week	Opponent	Runs	Rush yards	EPA/run	Dropbacks	Pass rate
1	TB	26	107	+0.097	36	58.1%
2	HOU	22	86	-0.217	36	62.1%
3	PIT	18	83	+0.059	38	67.9%
4	JAX	15	23	-0.275	56	78.9%

This game, runs versus dropbacks

Team	Type	Plays	Yards	EPA/play	Success rate
CIN	Run	15	23	-0.275	26.7%
CIN	Dropback	56	414	+0.132	51.8%
JAX	Run	25	113	+0.034	36.0%
JAX	Dropback	27	212	+0.379	51.9%

Why it matters. When a run game produces 1.5 yards a carry, the defense can play the pass on every down, and Cincinnati's offense became predictable in the situations where it most needed variety: all four plays of its final series from the Jacksonville 21 were passes. Jacksonville's run game was not efficient either, at +0.034 EPA, but its 25 runs for 113 yards kept the Bengals honest enough that Lawrence's dropbacks did not face the same pressure to carry the offense.

Jacksonville's first win in Cincinnati since 2019 ended a four-game losing run against the Bengals

Milestone

The Bengals had won the previous four meetings: 33-25 and 24-21 at home in 2020 and 2021, 34-31 in Jacksonville in 2023, and 31-27 at home in Week 2 of 2025. This win puts Jacksonville 10-9 against Cincinnati in regular-season meetings since 1999. It also makes the Jaguars 3-1 after four games for the second season in a row, the first time they have opened 3-1 in back-to-back years since at least 1999.

Jaguars vs Bengals, regular season 2014-2026

Season	Week	Game	Score	Winner
2014	9	JAX @ CIN	CIN 33, JAX 23	CIN
2017	9	CIN @ JAX	JAX 23, CIN 7	JAX
2019	7	JAX @ CIN	JAX 27, CIN 17	JAX
2020	4	JAX @ CIN	CIN 33, JAX 25	CIN
2021	4	JAX @ CIN	CIN 24, JAX 21	CIN
2023	13	CIN @ JAX	CIN 34, JAX 31	CIN
2025	2	JAX @ CIN	CIN 31, JAX 27	CIN
2026	4	JAX @ CIN	JAX 22, CIN 17	JAX

Jacksonville seasons starting 3-1 or better, 1999-2026

Season	Record after 4 games
1999	3-1
2002	3-1
2004	3-1
2007	3-1
2018	3-1
2025	3-1
2026	3-1

Why it matters. The four-game run had been close every time, three of the four decided by four points or fewer, so this result is less a reversal of the series than the close game finally breaking the other way. The 3-1 start matters more: Jacksonville's other 3-1 starts came across 26 seasons with gaps of up to 11 years, and this one follows directly on the last.

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