Game recap

Patriots @ Bills

2026 Wk 4 · BUF 26, NE 29

Maye's touchdown to Chism with 1:55 left and Woodson's interception ended Buffalo's unbeaten start.

FanIQ Research · October 4, 2026 · 6 facts, every one from the play-by-play

Four lead changes, the last on Chism's 23-yard catch at 1:55, then Woodson's pick at the New England 19

Trend

Neither team led by more than seven points at any time. New England went up 7-0 and 14-7, Buffalo tied it both times, and from there the lead changed hands four times: Buffalo 17-14 on Tyler Bass's 27-yard kick at the end of the half, New England 21-17 on Romeo Doubs's second touchdown, Buffalo 26-21 on Josh Allen's 34-yard strike to Keon Coleman with 4:33 left, and New England 27-26 when Drake Maye found Efton Chism III for 23 yards with 1:55 left. Maye then hit Rhamondre Stevenson for two points. Buffalo's last drive reached its own 40 before Craig Woodson intercepted Allen's deep ball for Josh Palmer at the New England 19 with 1:14 left.

Every score change, this game

Clock	Score (NE-BUF)	Play
Q1 7:06	7-0	Maye 14-yd TD pass to Doubs, plus kick
Q2 14:21	7-7	Cook 8-yd TD run, plus kick
Q2 5:41	14-7	Stevenson 1-yd TD run, plus kick
Q2 1:03	14-14	Allen 2-yd TD run, plus kick
Q2 0:05	14-17	Bass 27-yd FG
Q3 8:18	21-17	Maye 2-yd TD pass to Doubs, plus kick
Q4 11:11	21-20	Bass 38-yd FG
Q4 4:33	21-26	Allen 34-yd TD pass to Coleman, two-point try fails
Q4 1:55	29-26	Maye 23-yd TD pass to Chism, two-point pass to Stevenson good

Largest win-probability swings of the game

Clock	Offense	Play	WPA
Q4 1:14	BUF	Allen pass intercepted by Woodson	-0.270
Q2 0:16	NE	Maye pass intercepted by Alford	-0.199
Q4 1:55	NE	Maye 23-yd TD to Chism	+0.192
Q4 13:26	BUF	Allen 22-yd pass to Coleman	+0.159
Q4 4:33	BUF	Allen 34-yd TD to Coleman	+0.150

Why it matters. A game with four lead changes and no lead bigger than a touchdown is decided by the last possession, and here the last two possessions told the story. New England's go-ahead drive went 73 yards with Maye completing four of seven throws, and the two-point pass turned a one-point lead into a three-point one, which meant Buffalo needed only a field goal to tie. The interception that followed was the single largest win-probability swing of the game, at 27 points.

Maye is the third road passer since 2018 to throw three touchdowns against Buffalo and win, and the first since 2019

Rare

Drake Maye went 22 of 37 for 269 yards and three touchdowns, two to Romeo Doubs and the game-winner to Efton Chism III. Since 2018, eight visiting passers have thrown three or more touchdowns on the Bills' home schedule. Five of them still lost, including Jared Goff in this building two weeks earlier. Only Philip Rivers in 2018, Lamar Jackson in 2019, and now Maye came away with the win.

Visiting passers with 3+ TD passes on the Bills' home schedule, 2018-2026 regular season

Season	Wk	Passer	Team	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Score (BUF-Opp)	Result
2018	2	Philip Rivers	LAC	23/27	256	3	0	20-31	W
2019	14	Lamar Jackson	BAL	16/25	145	3	1	17-24	W
2022	11	Jacoby Brissett	CLE	28/41	324	3	0	31-23	L
2022	18	Mac Jones	NE	26/40	243	3	3	35-23	L
2024	11	Patrick Mahomes	KC	23/33	196	3	2	30-21	L
2025	14	Joe Burrow	CIN	25/36	284	4	2	39-34	L
2026	2	Jared Goff	DET	26/38	327	4	0	41-31	L
2026	4	Drake Maye	NE	22/37	269	3	1	26-29	W

Quarterbacks, this game

Passer	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Sacked	Rush yds
Drake Maye	22	37	269	3	1	1	54
Josh Allen	23	33	253	1	1	1	4

Why it matters. Throwing for three scores against Buffalo has usually meant chasing the Bills' offense rather than beating it: Buffalo scored at least 30 points in all five of the losses in this list. Maye's line won because New England's defense held Buffalo to 26 and because his third touchdown came on the last drive rather than in garbage time. He also ran for 54 yards on eight carries, which kept drives alive when the pass game stalled.

New England's offense was below zero EPA a play in all three earlier games. In Buffalo it posted +0.179 and 25 first downs

Comparison

Through three weeks the Patriots had not cleared 17 first downs or 330 yards in a game, and their EPA per play sat between -0.07 and -0.253. Against Buffalo they ran 71 offensive plays, gained 407 yards, picked up 25 first downs, and succeeded on 50.7 percent of snaps. All four numbers are New England's best of the season. The other side of it: the 25 first downs and 145 rushing yards were the most Buffalo's defense has allowed this season.

New England offense by week, 2026 (pass and run plays, two-point tries excluded)

Week	Opponent	Plays	Yards	EPA/play	Success rate	First downs
1	@ SEA	67	277	-0.110	41.8%	17
2	vs PIT	51	330	-0.070	41.2%	14
3	@ JAX	60	317	-0.253	36.7%	14
4	@ BUF	71	407	+0.179	50.7%	25

Buffalo defense by week, 2026

Week	Opponent	Plays faced	Rush yds allowed	EPA/play allowed	First downs allowed
1	@ HOU	73	124	+0.069	21
2	vs DET	62	66	+0.232	22
3	vs LAC	64	131	-0.071	18
4	vs NE	71	145	+0.179	25

Why it matters. New England's win in Week 2 came with an offense at -0.07 EPA a play, carried by a defense that allowed three points. This one was different: the offense moved the ball on its own, with 33 runs balancing 38 dropbacks, and it did so against a Buffalo team that came in 3-0. The run volume also mattered for the clock, since New England ran 71 plays to Buffalo's 54.

Buffalo ran eight third-quarter plays for 19 yards, then gained 143 yards in the fourth

Split

New England controlled the third quarter: 23 offensive plays to Buffalo's eight, and a touchdown that put the Patriots up 21-17. Buffalo's offense had its worst quarter there, at -0.476 EPA a play with one first down. In the fourth quarter Allen found his rhythm, and Keon Coleman caught three passes for 80 yards, including the 34-yard touchdown. Coleman finished with 6 catches for 116 yards, the second-highest yardage game of his career.

Offense by quarter, this game (pass and run plays)

Team	Qtr	Plays	Yards	EPA/play	First downs	Turnovers
BUF	1	14	59	-0.016	3	0
BUF	2	16	119	+0.291	6	1
BUF	3	8	19	-0.476	1	0
BUF	4	16	143	+0.362	6	1
NE	1	12	97	+0.640	6	0
NE	2	18	93	-0.100	7	2
NE	3	23	104	+0.072	6	0
NE	4	18	113	+0.288	6	0

Keon Coleman's top receiving-yard games, regular season

Season	Wk	Opponent	Rec	Yards	TD
2024	7	TEN	4	125	0
2026	4	NE	6	116	1
2025	1	BAL	8	112	1
2024	8	SEA	5	70	1
2024	15	DET	1	64	0

Why it matters. An eight-play quarter means Buffalo's offense was on the sideline for most of it, and New England used those 23 snaps to take the lead. Buffalo's fourth-quarter surge, built on three Coleman catches of 22 yards or more, got it back. The fourth quarter also held Buffalo's second turnover, the interception that ended the game, so the best quarter of the Bills' offense still finished with the worst play.

Two turnovers, one by each team, in the last 23 seconds of the first half: the 14th such half since 1999

Anomaly

With 23 seconds left in the half and the score 14-14, Khalil Shakir caught an 8-yard pass at the New England 39 and fumbled, and New England recovered. On the next snap, with 16 seconds left, Dee Alford intercepted Maye and returned it 37 yards to the New England 9. Tyler Bass kicked a 27-yard field goal with five seconds left, and Buffalo took a 17-14 lead into halftime. Since 1999, only 14 games have had each team lose a turnover in the final 30 seconds of the first half.

Games where both teams lost a turnover in the last 30 seconds of the first half, 1999-2026

Game	Turnovers (team, seconds left in half)
2001_02_CAR_ATL	ATL 12, CAR 19
2002_13_CHI_GB	GB 5, CHI 26
2004_14_NYJ_PIT	NYJ 25, PIT 5
2005_17_DET_PIT	DET 28, PIT 9
2007_06_NYG_ATL	NYG 28, ATL 3
2011_02_PHI_ATL	ATL 11, PHI 26
2011_03_ARI_SEA	ARI 7, SEA 0
2017_17_SF_LA	LA 27, SF 16
2018_14_LA_CHI	CHI 24, LA 8
2020_16_CAR_WAS	CAR 21, WAS 7
2021_06_LA_NYG	NYG 25, LA 10
2023_12_MIA_NYJ	MIA 9, NYJ 2
2023_16_CLE_HOU	HOU 29, CLE 5
2026_04_NE_BUF	BUF 23, NE 16

Why it matters. Most end-of-half possessions end quietly: a team runs out the clock or tries a long kick. This one produced a fumble, an interception, a 37-yard return, and three points in 18 seconds of game time. Buffalo scored 10 points in the final 1:03 of the half, which turned a 14-7 deficit into a 17-14 lead, and the Alford interception was the second-largest win-probability swing of the game.

Back-to-back New England wins in Buffalo for the first time since the 2017-2019 run, both by three points

Milestone

New England won 23-20 in Buffalo in 2025 and 29-26 here. The Patriots last won consecutive trips to Buffalo when they won there in 2017, 2018 and 2019. Between that run and last season, they went 1-5 in Buffalo, including the 47-17 Wild Card loss in January 2022. The win also handed Buffalo its first loss of 2026: the Bills are now 3-1 and New England is 2-2.

New England at Buffalo, 2017-2026

Season	Wk	Type	Score (NE-BUF)	NE result
2017	13	REG	23-3	W
2018	8	REG	25-6	W
2019	4	REG	16-10	W
2020	8	REG	21-24	L
2021	13	REG	14-10	W
2021	19	Wild Card	17-47	L
2022	18	REG	23-35	L
2023	17	REG	21-27	L
2024	16	REG	21-24	L
2025	5	REG	23-20	W
2026	4	REG	29-26	W

2026 records after this game

Team	W	L
BUF	3	1
NE	2	2

Why it matters. From 2020 through 2024 New England won once in six trips to Buffalo, and three of those five losses came by six points or more. Both wins under Mike Vrabel have been one-score games decided late, which says the gap between these teams in that stadium has closed. The rematch is set for New England in Week 13.

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