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Texans @ Titans

2026 Wk 5 · TEN 3, HOU 26

Tennessee scored on its opening drive, then Houston answered with the next 26 points.

Houston has held an opponent to 3 points or fewer eight times. Four were Tennessee, and the last three all ended with Houston on 26.

Rare

Every Texans game allowing 3 points or fewer (2002 to 2026)

SeasonWeekOpponentSiteHOU ptsOpp pts
200416JAXAway210
20071KCHome203
201012TENHome200
201817JAXHome203
20199JAXAway263
202317TENHome263
20254TENHome260
20265TENAway263

That is the full franchise list. Houston scored exactly 26 in each of its last three games against Tennessee where the Titans finished on 3 or fewer: 26-3 in 2023, 26-0 in 2025, and 26-3 here. This was also the first of the four Tennessee entries played in Nashville.

Why it matters. Holding any NFL offense to a field goal is rare for this franchise, and it has now happened to one division rival four times out of eight. The repeat of the same 26 point score is a coincidence, but the pattern underneath it is not: Houston's defense has repeatedly taken Tennessee's offense out of the game entirely, and this time it did so on the road.

Tennessee has scored 3 points or fewer at home three times since 1999. Two of them came in the last 11 months.

Rare

Every Titans home game of 3 points or fewer since 1999

SeasonWeekOpponentTEN ptsOpp pts
20186BAL021
202513JAX325
20265HOU326

Across every season in the database, this is the complete list. Between 2018 week 6 and 2025 week 13 there were none, then two came in quick succession: the loss to Jacksonville and this game. Tennessee is now 0-5 and has scored 58 points in five games.

Why it matters. A home offense held to one field goal is unusual anywhere, and it has happened in Nashville only three times in 28 seasons. Two of them landing this close together says more about where the current Tennessee offense sits than about any one opponent. Through five weeks the Titans have not scored more than 20 points in any game.

Tennessee led 3-0 with 55:42 to play. Houston scored the next 26 points.

Trend

Score at the end of each quarter

QuarterHOUTENPlays
13339
212344
319339
426342

Offensive efficiency by half, both teams

TeamHalfPlaysEPA/playSuccess%Yards
HOU1st330.00739.4%193
HOU2nd280.28053.6%138
TEN1st25-0.60732.0%91
TEN2nd33-0.22242.4%96

Joey Slye's 30 yard field goal finished Tennessee's opening drive at 10:42 of the first quarter. Tennessee ran 50 more offensive plays and did not score again. Houston's first half was all field goals, four of them from Ka'imi Fairbairn, before C.J. Stroud ran in from 2 yards in the third quarter and threw a 9 yard score to Jaylin Noel early in the fourth.

Why it matters. The scoreboard understates how one sided the first half was: Houston led only 12-3 at the break despite Tennessee averaging minus 0.607 EPA per play, because the Texans stalled into field goal range four times. The second half is where the efficiency finally turned into touchdowns, with Houston's success rate rising from 39.4 percent to 53.6 percent.

Houston allowed 34 and 36 points in two of its first four games. Here it allowed 3, and its best EPA per play of the season.

Anomaly

Houston defense by game, 2026

WeekOpponentPts allowedOpp playsOpp EPA/playOpp success%
1BUF36520.22940.4%
2CIN2058-0.09231.0%
3IND1971-0.11440.8%
4DAL34730.14443.8%
5TEN358-0.38837.9%

Across weeks 1 to 4 Houston allowed 0.035 EPA per play on 254 plays and lost all four games, three of them by 5 points or fewer. Against Tennessee the same defense held its opponent to minus 0.388, more than three times better than its previous best game of minus 0.114 against Indianapolis.

Why it matters. Houston came in 0-4 with a defense that had given up 30 or more twice, so this result is a sharp break from its own season rather than a continuation. Some of the gap belongs to the opponent: Tennessee entered at minus 0.085 EPA per play on offense through four weeks. Even adjusting for that, Houston pushed the Titans roughly 0.30 per play below their own baseline.

Cam Ward was not sacked for three quarters. Then he was sacked four times in the fourth, three by Will Anderson Jr.

Split

Tennessee dropbacks by quarter

QuarterDropbacksSacksEPA/play
170-0.351
2100-0.744
330-0.858
4204-0.223

Every sack of Cam Ward in this game

QtrClockDownSacked byYards
410:50Danielle Hunter-9
48:574th and 20Will Anderson Jr.-14
42:25Will Anderson Jr.-4
40:244th and 19Will Anderson Jr.-13

Tennessee tried two fourth downs, and Anderson ended both with a sack. The Titans threw on 20 of their fourth quarter plays while trailing by 16 to 23 points, and that is when Houston's rush got home. Ward finished 23 of 36 for 170 yards, no touchdowns and one interception.

Why it matters. The timing is the mechanism. Through three quarters Tennessee mostly failed without Houston needing to get home, at minus 0.744 and minus 0.858 EPA per dropback in the second and third quarters. Once the score forced Ward into obvious passing downs, Houston's edge rush turned a lost game into a series of drive ending plays. The fourth quarter EPA per dropback is the least negative of the game, a sign that Houston was conceding underneath yards while protecting a large lead.

Ka'imi Fairbairn's 14th career game with four or more field goals. Four of the 14 came against Tennessee.

Milestone

Every Fairbairn regular season game with 4+ field goals made

SeasonWeekGameFG madeLong
20173HOU at NE440
20185DAL at HOU436
201813CLE at HOU553
201815HOU at NYJ553
202017TEN at HOU451
20235HOU at ATL443
202315HOU at TEN454
202317TEN at HOU451
20242CHI at HOU459
20258SF at HOU437
20259DEN at HOU541
202515ARI at HOU455
202518IND at HOU651
20265HOU at TEN453

Fairbairn went 4 for 4 from 45, 35, 26 and 53 yards, all before halftime. No other opponent appears on his list more than once. The career leader in such games since 1999 is Justin Tucker with 24.

Why it matters. Four field goal games usually mean an offense that moves the ball but stalls short of the end zone, which matches Houston's first half here: 193 yards and no touchdowns. Tennessee recurring on Fairbairn's list fits the same story as the scoring history, a Houston offense that has had steady access to scoring range against this defense for years.

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