Bills @ Raiders

The Raiders have allowed more points every week. Buffalo comes next.

The Raiders have allowed 13, 14, 27, 30 and 45 points, more than the week before in every game this season. Since 1999 five other teams opened a season that way, the 2003 Colts, 2005 Washington, 2007 Broncos, 2009 Jets and 2024 Falcons, and all five allowed fewer points in game six. None of them had given up 45 in game five. Sunday at Allegiant Stadium the sixth game comes against Buffalo, which has scored 164 points, tied with Detroit for the most in the league, and has scored at least 24 in every game. The question is whether the Raiders' defense from the first two weeks or the last three shows up against the offense least likely to let it recover.

Week 5 pushed both units to an edge. The Raiders lost 45 to 17 at New England and allowed plus 0.423 expected points per play, 30th of the 30 teams that played, after plus 0.024 and 20th across 2025. Buffalo won 37 to 34 at the Rams with plus 0.291 per play, third of the week, after plus 0.136 and third in 2025. Each is one game, set beside a full season.

Why it matters. A defense whose points allowed have risen five weeks in a row is a quirk until the sixth opponent is the league's most efficient offense. Every earlier team with the same opening allowed fewer in game six, so history says the streak breaks, but none of those teams faced an offense tied for the league lead in scoring right after a 45 point game. The Raiders' full season EPA is still near the middle, 19th, which is why the question is which version shows up rather than a verdict. Allen has won both of his starts against the Raiders without an interception.

Buffalo leads the league in long runs. The Raiders allow the third most.

Buffalo's ground game is the best in football by almost any count. It has 28 runs of 10 yards or more on 142 run plays, 19.7 percent, first of 32, and leads the league in expected points per run. James Cook averages 5.6 yards on 95 carries, after 5.25 across 2025, and Josh Allen's eight rushing touchdowns are the most by a quarterback through five team games of any season since 1999, two more than Jalen Hurts in 2022. The Raiders have allowed 20 runs of 10 or more, 15.3 percent, third most, and 5.40 yards per carry, 31st, after 4.08 and sixth fewest in 2025. Their last two games are where it went: 7.60 a carry to Kansas City and 6.04 to New England, after 4.11 and 3.97 in the first two. Expected points per run are kinder to the Raiders, 11th, so the long runs have not all turned into points. If Cook has a run of 10 yards or more on Buffalo's first drive, the last two weeks are still the Raiders' run defense; if Buffalo is throwing on early downs by the second quarter, the Raiders have taken away the thing Buffalo does best.

Why it matters. This is strength against weakness with a timing question attached. Buffalo was second in yards per run in 2025 and is first or second in every 2026 rushing measure, and Allen's goal line running has no match in five game starts since 1999. The Raiders' run defense was sixth in yards per carry in 2025 and held its first two opponents near four a carry, then gave up 7.60 and 6.04. Two games is still a small sample, and the EPA rank says the damage has been partly contained, which is exactly what Sunday tests.

Ashton Jeanty has 88 carries and no rushing touchdown. Buffalo will test that.

The Raiders' run game sits at the bottom of the league, and Buffalo's run defense is the one place it could climb. The Raiders gain 3.26 yards per run play, 32nd of 32, with a 31.8 percent success rate, also 32nd, after 3.63 and 32nd in 2025. Ashton Jeanty averages 3.31 yards on 88 carries and is the only back with 60 or more carries and no rushing touchdown, and his carries have fallen every week, 23, 21, 19, 15 and 10. Buffalo's run defense gives up only 3.99 yards per carry, ninth, but ranks 26th in expected points per run and 26th in success rate allowed, after 5.21 yards per carry and 30th in 2025. The Rams ran 23 times for minus 0.012 per carry against it last week, 19th of the week. If Jeanty has 10 carries by halftime, the Raiders are using the run to keep Allen on the sideline; if he has five, the game is on Kirk Cousins.

Why it matters. The Raiders have the league's least productive run game two seasons running, and their lead back's workload has dropped five weeks in a row. Buffalo's run defense is mixed: the yards per carry look good this season while the success and EPA measures put it 26th, and it was 30th in 2025. That makes this the cleanest place for the Raiders to find a game plan that limits Buffalo's possessions, and the carry count will say quickly whether they try.

Cousins and Bowers meet a Buffalo pass defense that fell from 7th to 27th.

The Raiders' passing game is the part that changed. It averages plus 0.161 expected points per dropback, ninth of 32, after minus 0.187 and 29th across 2025, and Kirk Cousins has 12 touchdown passes, tied for second most. Brock Bowers has 34 targets in three games, 11.3 a game, the most of any tight end with three or more games, after 7.2 a game in 2025, and he has a touchdown catch in each of the three. Buffalo's pass defense has gone the other way: plus 0.202 per dropback, 27th, after minus 0.114 and seventh in 2025, with 13 touchdown passes allowed, fourth most, after 19 in all of 2025. Stafford threw for 383 yards and three touchdowns against it on Monday, plus 0.330 per dropback, 26th of the week. If Bowers has three catches in the first quarter, the Raiders can trade scores; if Buffalo forces Cousins into third and long early, the 2025 version of this pass defense has shown up.

Why it matters. This is the collision where both sides look least like their 2025 selves, in opposite directions: the Raiders' passing game climbed from 29th to ninth and Buffalo's pass defense fell from seventh to 27th. Bowers is the clearest target in the Raiders' passing game, with double digit targets in all three of his 2026 games. If the Raiders can score through the air, they can stay in a game against an offense that has scored at least 24 every week, and that is the path a defense with rising points allowed most needs from its own offense.