Cowboys @ Packers

Eighty points and no winner. The 40-40 tie comes to Lambeau.

The last time Dallas and Green Bay met, in Week 4 of 2025 at AT&T Stadium, they played to a 40-40 tie, the highest scoring tie of any regular season game since 1999. Dak Prescott and Jordan Love combined for 62 completions, 656 passing yards and six touchdown passes without an interception, and both offenses averaged more than a third of an expected point per play. Sunday night at Lambeau Field, Dallas brings the defense that allowed the most points in the league in 2025, 511, and that ranks 32nd of 32 in expected points allowed per play again through five games. The question the rest of the night answers is whether either defense can get the stops that neither found last time.

Both teams come off Week 5 games that cut against their 2025 form. Green Bay beat Chicago 31-7 with a defense that allowed minus 0.340 expected points per play, fifth of 30 teams that played, after plus 0.034 and 22nd across 2025. Dallas lost 24-16 at home to Tampa Bay, and its offense posted minus 0.047 per play, 19th of 30, after plus 0.098 and fifth in 2025. Each is one game, set beside a full season.

Why it matters. A 40-40 tie is the clearest possible statement that neither defense could stop the other, and the Dallas half of that has not changed: it allowed the most points in the league in 2025 and ranks last in expected points allowed per play again this season. Green Bay's defense is the side with a different look, 11th through five games after 22nd in 2025, with its best game of the year in Week 5. Lambeau has not been kind to Dallas, two wins in eight visits since 1999. Every collision below is a version of the same question: who gets a stop.

Watson has six touchdown catches. Dallas ranks last in pass defense.

Christian Watson has six touchdown catches in five games, second in the league behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba's seven, and three of them covered 42 yards or more: 81 against Minnesota in Week 1, then 42 and 53 against Chicago in Week 5. He has two games of 140 receiving yards or more. Dallas has allowed plus 0.391 expected points per dropback, 32nd of 32, after 31st in 2025, and 17 completions of 20 yards or more on 143 dropbacks, 11.9 percent, tied for the highest rate in the league. Green Bay's passing game was second in 2025 at plus 0.229 per dropback; it is 12th at plus 0.110 through five games, and posted plus 0.497 against Chicago, second of the week. If Love completes a pass of 20 yards or more on one of Green Bay's first two drives, the Packers are playing to their strength against the Cowboys' largest weakness; if Dallas keeps the ball in front of its secondary into the second quarter, Green Bay has to move it on third down, the down where it has struggled most.

Why it matters. This is Green Bay's best weapon against the worst unit on the field. Dallas's pass defense was 31st in 2025 and is last through five games, and it gives up long completions at the highest rate in the league, the exact play that produced half of Watson's touchdowns. Green Bay's own passing game has been less efficient than in 2025, so the Packers need the matchup more than they did a year ago. If the long ball is there early, the third down problem in the next collision matters less.

Green Bay ranks last on third down. Dallas is 31st at stopping it.

Green Bay converted 48.5 percent of its third downs in 2025, second in the league, and went 10 of 14 in the 40-40 tie. Through five games it is 16 of 57, 28.1 percent, 32nd of 32, and it went 4 of 12 even in the 31-7 win over Chicago. The problem starts on early downs: Green Bay's run game is last in the league at minus 0.292 expected points per carry, and the Packers have faced 30 third downs of 7 yards or more, converting five. Dallas is the defense that has let offenses off that hook more than any other but one: opponents convert 54.5 percent of their third downs, 31st, after 47.5 percent and 31st in 2025, and 7 of 19 from 7 yards or more. If Green Bay converts two of its first three third downs, the 2025 offense is closer than the five game number says; if the Packers reach halftime without a conversion, Dallas has found the stops it could not get last time.

Why it matters. Two bottom units meet here, and one of them has to give. Green Bay's 2025 offense lived on third down, and the five game gap from that team is the clearest reason the Packers are 3-2 rather than better. Dallas is the defense most likely to cure it, 31st this season and 31st last season. The other pairing matters too: Dallas converts 50.8 percent, fourth, against a Green Bay defense that is 28th on third down, which keeps Prescott on the field and Love off it.

Green Bay is tied for the league lead in interceptions. Dallas has none.

Green Bay's defense has seven interceptions in five games, tied with Seattle for the league lead, and three of them came against Chicago in Week 5. It had seven in all of 2025, 28th. Dallas's defense has none, the only team in the league without one, after six in 2025, 29th. Dak Prescott threw 10 interceptions on 600 attempts across 2025, threw none in Weeks 2 to 4 of this season, then threw two against Tampa Bay in Week 5. Green Bay also allows completions of 20 yards or more at the lowest rate in the league, 8 on 172 dropbacks, so Dallas has to move the ball in shorter pieces and throw more often into the secondary that is taking it away. If Green Bay has a takeaway in the first half, Dallas's defense has to defend a short field; if Prescott reaches halftime without an interception, Dallas's passing game is the one that ranked fifth in 2025 and seventh now.

Why it matters. The 40-40 tie had no interceptions at all. Five games into 2026, Green Bay's defense takes the ball away more often than anyone, while Dallas's defense has not taken it once, so the turnover side of this game leans hard one way. Prescott was careful in 2025 and for three weeks of this season, and Dallas's passing game is still seventh, so the test is whether Green Bay's defense can force mistakes from a quarterback who usually does not make them. One extra possession is a lot in a game between two defenses that struggled to get stops last time.