Saints @ Giants

The Saints went a whole game without a 17 yard gain. The Giants are next.

Against Minnesota in Week 5, New Orleans ran 43 plays and none of them was a pass of 20 yards or a run of 10, the longest gain 16 yards. That has happened to an offense 59 times in 14,086 regular season team games since 1999, and two of them are the Saints', the other at Miami in Week 13 of 2025. It fits a pattern rather than breaking one: New Orleans was last in the league in explosive play rate in 2025 and is third lowest in 2026. The Giants are fourth lowest, so Sunday at MetLife Stadium puts two of the four offenses least able to hit a big play on the same field. The last three meetings went to New Orleans with the Giants held to 6, 11 and 14 points. The question is which offense can move the ball without the big play, and which defense breaks first.

Week 5 set the Saints' offense below its own 2025 level and the Giants' slightly above theirs. New Orleans posted minus 0.351 expected points per play in a 23 to 13 loss to Minnesota, 27th of the 30 teams that played, after minus 0.088 and 27th across 2025. New York posted plus 0.065 in a 27 to 27 tie at Washington, 11th of 30, after plus 0.012 and 17th in 2025. Each is one game, set beside a full season.

Why it matters. A game with no gain of 17 yards or more is one of the rarest lines an offense can post, and the Saints have two in their last 11 regular season games. It is not a one week accident: they were last in explosive rate across all of 2025. The Giants' offense has its own drought in 2026, 29th in explosive rate after tenth in 2025. The Giants' defense allowed the highest explosive rate in the league in 2025, so the first long gain on Sunday tells the reader which trend is breaking.

The Saints have the fewest 10 yard runs. The Giants allow them in bunches.

New Orleans has six runs of 10 yards or more in five games, the fewest in the league, and it runs on 34.7 percent of its plays, third lowest, while Tyler Shough has the second most pass attempts, 205. The Giants' run defense is the place that could change. It allows 5.39 yards a carry, third most, and plus 0.071 expected points per carry, 31st of 32, and Washington ran 29 times for 203 yards against it in Week 5. That continues 2025, when the Giants were 32nd in both. The other side flips the script: the Saints' run defense was second in the league in 2025 and is 29th in 2026, while the Giants' run game was fifth in 2025 and is 26th. If the Saints have a 10 yard run in the first quarter, Shough's offense has a second way to move; if New Orleans is under 3.5 yards a carry at halftime, it is the same run game that has six 10 yard runs all season.

Why it matters. The Saints' missing big plays start on the ground, which is why they throw so much: fewest 10 yard runs, third lowest run rate, second most pass attempts. The Giants are the defense most likely to give them a run game, near the bottom in both 2025 and 2026 and coming off 203 rushing yards allowed. The reverse matchup is the surprise, two units that were top five in 2025 and are bottom eight now. Whichever team finds its ground game first can avoid needing the big play the storyline says neither team has.

Both offenses live on third down. Both defenses rank bottom six there.

Offenses without big plays have to sustain drives, and both of these have. New Orleans converts 45.8 percent of third downs, seventh, and New York 44.9 percent, eighth, each up from 19th and 17th in 2025. The defenses they face are near the bottom: the Saints allow 50.0 percent, fourth worst, after 35.9 percent and fifth in 2025, and the Giants allow 46.4 percent, sixth worst. Week 5 split the offenses, the Saints 2 of 10 against Minnesota and the Giants 8 of 17 at Washington. If either offense converts its first three third downs, that is the drive pattern it needs to score without a big play; the first defense to get off the field twice in a row has the edge the column has been looking for.

Why it matters. For two offenses that rank among the four least explosive, third down is where scoring drives survive, and both have been good at it while both defenses have been poor at stopping it. The Saints' defense is the bigger change from 2025, from fifth to 29th. The Week 5 rows cut the other way for each team, which is why one game cannot settle it. The team that wins third down on Sunday likely wins the possession battle in a game short on quick scores.

Shough throws more than almost anyone. The Giants pick off passes.

Tyler Shough has thrown 205 passes, second most in the league, with five interceptions, two of them against Minnesota in Week 5. The Giants' defense has six interceptions, tied for third, with at least one in each of its first four games and three against Arizona in Week 4; in 2025 it made nine, 23rd. In Week 5 it had none but five sacks at Washington. On the other side, Jameis Winston threw 54 passes without an interception in that tie, and the Saints' defense has one interception all season, tied for second fewest, after ten in 2025, 18th. If the Giants take the ball from Shough in the first half, the Saints' offense, short on big plays, has to rebuild a drive from scratch; if Shough has a clean first half, the Giants defense's best weapon has not shown up.

Why it matters. A turnover is the shortcut to points for two offenses that do not create them with big plays, and the takeaways in this game lean one way. The Giants have intercepted a pass in four of five games, far ahead of their 2025 pace, and they face a passer with the second most attempts in the league. The Saints' defense has one interception and faces a quarterback who just threw 54 passes without one. The volume is the risk for New Orleans: more throws mean more chances for the Giants.