Jets @ Patriots

One Jets regular season win in Foxborough since 2009. It came with seven sacks.

The Jets are 1 and 16 in regular season games at Gillette Stadium since 2009, outscored 487 to 231. The one win, 17 to 3 in Week 18 of 2023, was built on the pass rush: seven sacks and two interceptions of Bailey Zappe, who finished with 88 passing yards. Last season went the other way. Drake Maye completed 44 of 55 passes for 537 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions in the two meetings, the Jets sacked him twice, and New England won 27 to 14 and 42 to 10. Week 5 sent both teams here with their loudest numbers of the season: the Jets beat Cleveland 17 to 12 with eight sacks, the most by any defense in a game this season and tied for the franchise's most in a regular season game since 1999, and New England beat the Raiders 45 to 17 as Maye went 26 of 34 for 374 yards and four touchdowns. The question the rest of the column answers is whether this Jets rush can reach Maye the way the 2023 team reached Zappe.

Both Week 5 numbers sit beside very different 2025 seasons. The Jets' defense allowed minus 0.297 expected points per play against Cleveland, sixth of the 30 defenses that played, after plus 0.147 and 31st across 2025. New England's offense posted plus 0.423 per play against the Raiders, first of the week, after plus 0.159 and first in 2025. One is a change from last year and one is a continuation, and each is one game.

Why it matters. The Jets have one regular season win at New England in 17 tries since 2009, and that win came from a seven sack day against Bailey Zappe. Last season Maye picked the Jets apart with almost no pressure, two sacks in two games. The 2026 Jets defense ranks fifth in EPA per play after 31st in 2025 and just tied its single game sack high since 1999, so the one thing that has beaten New England here in the last 17 tries is the one thing this Jets team has done best. Every collision below follows from that.

The Jets sack on 9.6 percent of dropbacks. Maye was sacked 47 times in 2025.

The Jets' pass rush is the reason their defense climbed. They have 17 sacks on 177 dropbacks, 9.6 percent, second in the league, after 26 sacks and 4.8 percent, 29th, across 2025; eight of the 17 came against Cleveland. New England's line has allowed 11 sacks on 169 dropbacks, 6.5 percent, 17th, after 8.7 percent and 26th in 2025, a season in which Maye was sacked 47 times. Maye went down three times in each of the first three games and once in each of the last two. When he has had time, the Patriots' passing game has looked like 2025: plus 0.842 expected points per dropback against the Raiders, first of the week, after plus 0.287 and first last season, against a Jets pass defense that is tenth at minus 0.016 after finishing 32nd. If the Jets sack Maye before the end of the first quarter, the Week 5 rush has travelled; if he reaches halftime without being sacked, the two 2025 meetings are the better guide.

Why it matters. The Jets' sack rate has doubled from 2025 while Maye's sack count has fallen in his last two games, and those two trends meet head on here. Last season New England's protection was 26th, yet the Jets reached Maye only twice in two meetings, which is how he completed 44 of 55. Sacks are the Jets' best route to slowing the league's most efficient 2025 passing offense, and the Week 5 game shows what happens to New England's passing numbers when Maye is not hit: the best dropback rate of the week.

Maye has thrown seven interceptions. The Jets have one in their last 22 games.

Something has to give between a passer tied for the league lead in interceptions and a defense that almost never catches the ball. The Jets made no interceptions in 2025, the only full season by any defense since 1999 without one, and they have one in 2026, by Minkah Fitzpatrick at Chicago in Week 4, a game in which three more Jets interceptions were wiped out by Jets penalties. One in 22 games; Dallas is next fewest over the same span with six. Maye threw seven in his first four games, tied with Justin Herbert for the most in the league, after eight on 492 attempts in all of 2025, and New England is tied for the most team interceptions thrown. The Raiders game was his first without one this season. If the Jets intercept Maye in the first half, they match their 2026 total in one afternoon; if he goes a second straight game without one, the Jets' path to the ball runs through the pass rush.

Why it matters. Maye threw seven interceptions in four games after eight in all of 2025, the clearest gap between him and his 2025 self, and the Jets are the one defense in the league that has not been able to punish that kind of passer, with one interception in 22 games, five fewer than the next team. That makes this collision a test of which streak is real: Maye's seven in four games or the Jets' near zero. A Jets takeaway early would be the first sign that the 2023 formula, pressure plus turnovers, is available again.

Geno Smith led 2025 with 17 interceptions. In 2026 he has none, and 16 sacks.

The Jets' quarterback has traded one problem for another. Geno Smith threw a league high 17 interceptions for the Raiders in 2025; through five games with the Jets he has 147 attempts and none, the third most attempts without an interception this season, behind Jared Goff and C.J. Stroud. The cost shows up in sacks: Smith has been sacked 16 times, third most among passers, and the Jets allow a sack on 9.8 percent of dropbacks, fourth highest, after 10.8 percent and 30th in 2025. New England's defense is middle of the pack on both counts, 11 sacks on 173 dropbacks, 6.4 percent and 16th, and three interceptions, tied for 14th. The Week 5 injury report listed four Patriots cornerbacks Out: Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis III, Karon Prunty and Channing Canada; there is no Week 6 report yet. If Smith takes a sack on one of the Jets' first three third downs, New England has found the trade it wants; if he is completing quick throws and staying upright, the Jets can keep Maye on the sideline.

Why it matters. Smith's 2026 has gone from one extreme to the other on turnovers, zero after a league worst 17, while the Jets' offense has the fourth highest sack rate in the league and a third down offense that ranks 21st. New England's defense does not need to be elite at either sacks or interceptions to win this matchup; it needs to turn a careful quarterback's held throws into long third downs. Every Jets drive that ends in a sack hands Maye the ball back, and in the two 2025 meetings he completed 44 of 55.