Steelers @ Buccaneers

No opponent has intercepted Aaron Rodgers as often as Tampa Bay.

Aaron Rodgers has thrown 141 interceptions on 9,733 passes in his career, regular season and playoffs, 1.45 percent, the lowest rate of the 54 passers with 3,000 or more attempts since 1999. Against Tampa Bay the rate is 4.33 percent: 11 interceptions on 254 passes in seven games, nearly three times his career mark and the highest he has against any of the 32 teams he has faced. His teams are 3 and 4 in those games and 2 and 3 at Raymond James Stadium. Pittsburgh's record in the same building runs the other way: 5 and 0 since 1999, four wins over the Buccaneers and the Super Bowl that closed the 2008 season, 27 to 23 over Arizona. Rodgers has four interceptions on 184 passes this season, 2.17 percent, after 7 on 498 in 2025, and the Buccaneers have five interceptions, tied for sixth. The question the rest of the column answers is which history holds on Sunday: Rodgers' against this team, or Pittsburgh's in this stadium.

Both teams won in Week 5. Pittsburgh beat Indianapolis 34 to 22 with Rodgers 22 of 31 for 235 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions; the offense averaged plus 0.243 expected points per play, fifth of the 30 teams that played, after plus 0.026 and 15th across 2025. Tampa Bay won 24 to 16 at Dallas for its first win, with rookie Jalon Daniels 19 of 25 for 189 yards; its offense posted plus 0.162, seventh, after minus 0.009 and 20th in 2025. The Buccaneers' four losses came by 6, 4, 7 and 3 points. Each Week 5 number is one game, set beside a full season.

Why it matters. Rodgers' career interception rate is the lowest of the 54 passers with 3,000 or more attempts since 1999, and Tampa Bay is the one opponent that has pushed it past 4 percent, with two or more interceptions in three of the seven games. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has won all five of its games at Raymond James Stadium since 1999, a Super Bowl among them. The Buccaneers' defense is sixth by EPA allowed and tied for sixth in interceptions, so the matchup has the ingredients for either history to repeat. Both offenses had their best game of the season in Week 5, which sets up the collisions below.

Pittsburgh's run game meets a Tampa Bay front that gives up almost nothing.

Pittsburgh runs the ball better than it throws it. The Steelers average plus 0.066 expected points per run, fifth of 32, and 5.05 yards a carry, and Jaylen Warren's 5.86 yards a carry on 70 attempts is second among backs with 50 or more, behind Kenneth Walker III. Against Indianapolis in Week 5 they ran 20 times for 129 yards at plus 0.419 per run, first of the week, after plus 0.019 and ninth across 2025. Tampa Bay's run defense is built to stop exactly that: minus 0.143 per run, fourth, 3.61 yards a carry, and two rushing touchdowns allowed, tied for second fewest, after third by EPA in 2025. Dallas did run well on it in Week 5, plus 0.051 per carry, 22nd of 30, on only 13 runs. Pittsburgh has scored one rushing touchdown all season, 31st, so its runs move the ball without finishing drives. If Warren is past 4 yards a carry in the first quarter, Rodgers gets the manageable downs that keep Tampa's ball hawks out of the game; if Pittsburgh is in second and long, Rodgers is throwing into the defense that has picked him off more often than any other.

Why it matters. This is strength against strength, and both sides have a 2025 season behind them that says the five week numbers are not a fluke: Pittsburgh was ninth running the ball then and is fifth now, Tampa Bay third against the run then and fourth now. The run game is also how Pittsburgh protects Rodgers from the pattern in the storyline, because interceptions come on obvious passing downs. Pittsburgh's single rushing touchdown is the soft spot; even a good day on the ground may end in field goals against a defense that has allowed two.

Both defenses win third down. Pittsburgh's offense has not.

Third down is where Pittsburgh's offense has fallen furthest from its 2025 self: 21 of 60, 35.0 percent, 27th of 32, after 41.3 percent and 14th last season, and 4 of 11 even in the Week 5 win. Tampa Bay's defense is one of the best in the league at getting off the field, 21 of 62 allowed, 33.9 percent, sixth, an improvement on 39.5 percent and 13th in 2025, and Dallas went 4 of 10 against it. The other side is a closer fight: the Buccaneers' offense converts 39.7 percent, 18th, against a Pittsburgh defense allowing 34.4 percent, seventh, which held Indianapolis to 4 of 15. If Rodgers converts his first two third downs, Pittsburgh's offense is closer to its 2025 version than its five week line; if Tampa Bay forces two early punts, the Buccaneers get the field position their offense needed in all four of its one score losses.

Why it matters. Two top seven third down defenses meet, and the offense with the bigger gap to close is Pittsburgh's. Its 2025 rate was league average; its 2026 rate is near the bottom, and Tampa Bay's defense has improved in the same window. Pittsburgh's own defense has made the same jump, from 25th to seventh, which is why the Buccaneers' offense, middle of the pack, is not a clear edge either. Third down decides how many snaps each offense gets, and Tampa Bay has lost four games by a combined 20 points.

Tampa Bay's line allowed 13 sacks in three weeks, then four in two.

The Buccaneers have been sacked at the third highest rate in the league, 17 times on 168 dropbacks, 10.1 percent, after 6.3 percent and 19th highest in 2025. Most of it came early: Baker Mayfield was sacked 13 times on 109 dropbacks, 11.9 percent, at minus 0.297 expected points per dropback, and Jalon Daniels has been sacked 4 times on 59, 6.8 percent, at plus 0.019. Fifty nine dropbacks is a small sample, and Week 5's one sack at Dallas is one game. Pittsburgh's pass rush sits in the middle: 11 sacks on 169 dropbacks, 6.5 percent, 14th, after 7.3 percent and 11th in 2025, and one sack against Indianapolis in Week 5. Rodgers faces the other version of this question; Tampa Bay's rush has six sacks, 3.5 percent, 28th, and none at Dallas. If Pittsburgh sacks Daniels on either of the Buccaneers' first two drives, Tampa Bay's early season problem is back; if he is clean into the second quarter, the rookie gets to show whether Week 5 was more than one game.

Why it matters. Tampa Bay's protection numbers split cleanly by passer, which makes Daniels' second start against an average Pittsburgh rush the most open question in the game. The other pass rush matters for the storyline: the 2026 Buccaneers have the fourth lowest sack rate in football, tied with Dallas, so if Tampa Bay is going to get to Rodgers it is more likely to be through the interceptions it has always found against him than through sacks.