Titans @ Colts

Six straight Colts wins, and Taylor scored nine times in the last three

Indianapolis has beaten Tennessee six straight times, and the last two were not close: 41 to 20 at Tennessee and 38 to 14 at home, both in 2025. Jonathan Taylor did most of the damage. In his last three games against the Titans he has 473 rushing yards on 58 carries and nine touchdowns, eight of them on the ground, starting with 218 yards and three scores in Week 16 of 2024. Tennessee arrives 0 and 5, and it has won six of 39 regular season games since the start of 2024, four fewer than any other team. The question Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium answers is whether anything about this Titans team can change a matchup that has gone one way for three seasons.

Both teams lost in Week 5. Tennessee fell 26 to 3 at home to Houston, and its offense posted minus 0.388 expected points per play, 28th of 30 that week, against minus 0.160 and 30th across 2025. Indianapolis lost 34 to 22 at Pittsburgh, and its run defense allowed 129 yards on 20 carries, plus 0.419 per run, 30th of the week, against minus 0.050 and ninth in 2025. Each is one game, set beside a full season. The Colts are 2 and 3.

Why it matters. A six game streak in a division series, with the last two decided by 21 and 24 points, is the frame every other number in this game has to answer to. Taylor's three game run against Tennessee is the clearest single reason for it, and the Titans' 6 and 33 record since 2024 is the clearest reason it has lasted. Week 5 showed both teams' weak points at their worst, which is what makes the collisions that follow worth watching.

Taylor scores more than he gains, and the Titans' run defense has held up

The Colts' run game wins on touchdowns and short yardage, not distance. Indianapolis is third of 32 in expected points per run, plus 0.099, the same rank it held in 2025, with eight rushing touchdowns, fourth, yet it averages 3.76 yards per carry, 28th. Taylor has 398 yards on 101 carries and six touchdowns, and 45 yards on 15 carries at Pittsburgh in Week 5. Tennessee's run defense is the one part of its team that has improved on paper: 3.78 yards per carry allowed, sixth, after 4.55 and 20th in 2025, and Houston ran 25 times for 81 yards against it in Week 5. If Taylor has 60 yards by halftime, the last three meetings are repeating; if Tennessee keeps the Colts' run plays under 3.5 yards a carry, Indianapolis has to win this through a passing game that ranks 28th.

Why it matters. Taylor's damage against Tennessee came in chunks, 473 yards in three games, but his 2026 production is mostly touchdowns on short runs, and that is the version a Titans defense allowing 3.78 a carry is better placed to contain. Indianapolis has ranked third in run efficiency two seasons running, so the run game is not a one week story. Whether the Titans' improvement against the run holds up against the best run game they have faced in the series is the first thing that decides whether this game looks like the last six.

The Colts have the least efficient run defense in football. Pollard is next.

The other run collision runs the opposite way. Indianapolis allows plus 0.119 expected points per run, last of 32, and 5.21 yards per carry, after allowing 3.98, third, in 2025. Three of its five opponents topped 5 yards a carry, including Pittsburgh's 129 yards on 20 runs in Week 5, and Derrick Henry had 144 yards and three touchdowns against it in Week 1. Tennessee's run game has not been the team's answer so far: 3.82 yards per carry, 23rd, with Tony Pollard at 273 yards on 68 carries, and 57 yards on 18 runs against Houston in Week 5. If Pollard has 50 yards by halftime, Tennessee can keep Cam Ward out of long third downs; if the Titans are passing on first down by the second quarter, the Colts' worst unit has been taken out of the game.

Why it matters. This is the biggest drop in any unit on either team: Indianapolis went from third in yards per carry allowed in 2025 to 27th, and to last in run efficiency. Tennessee has the weakest offense in this game, and a run defense allowing more than 5 yards a carry is the softest spot it will see. The Titans' own run numbers have fallen in each of the last four weeks, so the collision is a real test of whether the Colts' defense or Tennessee's offense is the bigger problem.

Daniel Jones and the Titans' pass defense: two bottom five units collide

If the run game stalls, Indianapolis needs Daniel Jones, and his passing game has not looked like its 2025 self. The Colts average minus 0.161 expected points per dropback, 28th of 32, after plus 0.056 and 12th across 2025, and Jones has three touchdowns and four interceptions on 176 attempts after 19 and 8 on 384 a year ago. Tyler Warren leads the team with 30 catches for 213 yards and two scores. The defense across from him ranks even lower: Tennessee allows plus 0.224 per dropback, 29th, the same rank as in 2025, with two interceptions, and Houston posted plus 0.292 against it in Week 5, 25th of the week. If Jones has a touchdown pass before halftime, the Colts have found the matchup their passing game needed; if he is still under 6 yards an attempt at the break, both units are what their ranks say and the game goes back to the run.

Why it matters. Weakness against weakness is still a testable edge. Tennessee's pass defense has ranked 29th in both seasons, so its number is a baseline, not a slump; Indianapolis's passing is the unit that moved, from 12th to 28th, and Jones's 5.8 yards per attempt this season trails his 8.1 from 2025. Whichever of those two numbers gives first decides whether the Colts can win this game without Taylor carrying it.

Indianapolis gets off the field on third down. Tennessee rarely stays on it.

The one Colts defensive number that has climbed is the one that matters most against this offense. Indianapolis allows a 31.0 percent conversion rate on third down, 18 of 58, third best in the league, after 43.1 percent and 26th in 2025. Tennessee converts 35.6 percent, 21 of 59, 26th, and was last in 2025 at 31.9 percent, a season in which Cam Ward was sacked 55 times. Ward has 896 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions on 155 attempts this season, and the Titans went 4 of 11 against Houston in Week 5 while Pittsburgh went 4 of 11 against the Colts. If Tennessee converts two of its first three third downs, the Colts' third down number is being tested for real; if the Titans go three and out on their first two drives, the field tilts toward Taylor.

Why it matters. Tennessee's offense ranks 31st in expected points per play, and its third down rate has sat in the bottom seven for two seasons, so every drive it sustains has to come through the down where Indianapolis's defense has been strongest. The Colts' 2025 third down defense was 26th, so the four week sample is a change worth testing, not a settled fact. If the Titans cannot stay on the field, Taylor gets the touches that have decided the last three meetings.