Situations and play calling

The fumble hurts more than the pick

Holds upThe record backs this up, season after season.

This one is in the FanIQ library with the full rule, the reason it works, and every season we checked.

Held in 27 of 27 seasons, from 7,221 records measured.

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Interceptions Get the Blame. Fumbles Do the Damage.Play for play, a lost fumble costs more win probability than an interception. We expected the opposite going in, and the data reversed us in every season since 1999.

FanIQ carries this one in full: the rule itself, why it works, the season-by-season record, and the related laws.