Player
Carson Wentz
QB
EPA/play is the cleanest measure of QB efficiency. Wentz wasn't just on an MVP pace by volume — he was statistically the second-most efficient QB in the league that year, making his ACL injury a genuine counterfactual to debate every season.
In 2017, Wentz ranked 2nd in NFL EPA/play (0.197) — behind only Brady (0.228) — in 13 games before tearing his ACL.
Milestone2017 NFL EPA/play leaders (min 200 dropbacks)
| QB | Dropbacks | EPA/play | TDs | INTs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 618 | 0.228 | 33* | 8 |
| Carson Wentz | 471 | 0.197 | 33 | 7 |
| Philip Rivers | 592 | 0.182 | 28 | 10 |
| Alex Smith | 540 | 0.169 | 26 | 5 |
Why it matters. EPA/play is the cleanest measure of QB efficiency. Wentz wasn't just on an MVP pace by volume — he was statistically the second-most efficient QB in the league that year, making his ACL injury a genuine counterfactual to debate every season.
His 2019 'peak' (4,039 yards) was actually his LEAST efficient healthy season — only 0.029 EPA/play.
AnomalyWentz efficiency vs yards by season
| Season | Pass Yds | EPA/play | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 3,296 | 0.197 | +0.41 |
| 2018 | 3,074 | 0.088 | +5.1 |
| 2019 | 4,039 | 0.029 | -0.64 |
| 2020 | 2,620 | -0.168 | -3.49 |
| 2021 | 3,563 | 0.013 | -2.12 |
Why it matters. The raw yards peak masked a collapse in quality: more attempts, more volume, less value per play. The year everyone pointed to as a healthy 'bounce-back' was the season his efficiency had already eroded to barely above replacement level.
Wentz threw for MORE yards per game in losses (246) than wins (221) — and 2.5x more INTs.
SplitWentz stats: wins vs losses (career regular season)
| Result | Games | Avg Pass Yds | Avg TDs | Avg INTs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win | 50 | 221 | 1.9 | 0.4 |
| Loss | 51 | 246 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
Why it matters. Volume stats masked his impact: the extra passing yards in losses were garbage-time accumulation, not game-changing production. He averaged nearly 1 INT per loss game vs 0.4 in wins, revealing a TD-or-turnover pattern under pressure.
His EPA/play chart reveals a steeper cliff than yards: 0.197 in 2017, then never above 0.088 again.
Wentz EPA/play by season
| Season | EPA per play |
|---|
Why it matters. The line chart of raw yards looked like recoveries (2019, 2021); the EPA chart shows a one-way decline from the 2017 peak. After the ACL, he had exactly one above-average efficiency season (2018) and then consistent decay.
Wentz led the NFL in sacks taken in 2020 with 50 — a 10.2% sack rate that was the highest among all high-snap QBs.
Rare2020 NFL sack leaders
| QB | Sacks | Sack Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 50 | 10.2% |
| Deshaun Watson | 49 | 8.2% |
| Russell Wilson | 47 | 7.8% |
| Daniel Jones | 45 | 9.1% |
Why it matters. 50 sacks in a season is historically bad. It both signals a collapsing offensive line AND a QB who couldn't avoid pressure — and it directly preceded his benching for Jalen Hurts. The sack total was the loudest data point behind the decision.
Wentz played for 6 teams in 10 years — the MOST of any QB drafted #1 or #2 overall since 2000. The card had it wrong: he's not 2nd. He's first.
AnomalyMost teams: QBs drafted #1 or #2 overall since 2000
| QB | Draft | Teams | Team list |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | #2, 2016 | 6 | PHI IND WAS LAR KC MIN |
| Marcus Mariota | #2, 2015 | 5 | TEN LV ATL PHI WAS |
| Sam Bradford | #1, 2010 | 4 | LA PHI MIN ARI |
| Baker Mayfield | #1, 2018 | 4 | CLE CAR LAR TB |
Why it matters. The journeyman narrative undersold itself. Wentz lapped the field in team-hopping among elite picks: Mariota (the 2nd-most with 5 teams) never got a $128M extension before bouncing. Wentz did — and still couldn't stick anywhere.
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