Player
Jake Browning
QB
EPA/play strips out scheme and receiver talent to measure decision quality per snap — Browning's +0.087 in 2023 means he was adding value, not just game-managing, which is extraordinary for a backup making his first real starts.
In 2023 Browning posted +0.087 EPA/play — 9th among all NFL QBs with 100+ pass plays, ahead of Jalen Hurts, Baker Mayfield, and Patrick Mahomes.
Anomaly2023 EPA/play — QBs with 100+ pass plays (top 10)
| Rank | QB | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brock Purdy | 0.297 |
| 2 | Tua Tagovailoa | 0.185 |
| 3 | Dak Prescott | 0.176 |
| 4 | Jordan Love | 0.136 |
| 5 | Josh Allen | 0.122 |
| 6 | Jared Goff | 0.111 |
| 7 | C.J. Stroud | 0.100 |
| 8 | Lamar Jackson | 0.092 |
| 9 | Jake Browning | 0.087 |
| 10 | Matthew Stafford | 0.083 |
Why it matters. EPA/play strips out scheme and receiver talent to measure decision quality per snap — Browning's +0.087 in 2023 means he was adding value, not just game-managing, which is extraordinary for a backup making his first real starts.
In 2023 close games (within 7 pts), Browning posted +0.255 EPA/play — 4th in the NFL, ahead of Purdy, Hurts, and every full-time starter except Tua and Goff.
Split2023 EPA/play in close games (within 7 pts, 50+ plays)
| Rank | QB | EPA/play | Plays |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason Rudolph | 0.354 | 53 |
| 2 | Tua Tagovailoa | 0.266 | 408 |
| 3 | Jared Goff | 0.261 | 376 |
| 4 | Jake Browning | 0.255 | 175 |
| 5 | Dak Prescott | 0.222 | 349 |
Why it matters. Close-game EPA/play is the best single-number proxy for 'can he win you a game' — it filters out garbage time and measures decisions when both teams are still competing. Browning's +0.255 means he was making game-winning plays when it mattered most.
2023 CIN: 4-3 record, NFL-leading 70.4% completions (100+ att), 7.97 Y/A — outperforming Dak, Purdy, and Tua in completion rate.
Split2023 completion % leaders (100+ attempts)
| Rank | QB | Cmp% | Attempts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Browning | 70.4% | 243 |
| 2 | Dak Prescott | 69.5% | 590 |
| 3 | Kirk Cousins | 69.5% | 311 |
| 4 | Brock Purdy | 69.4% | 444 |
| 5 | Tua Tagovailoa | 69.3% | 560 |
Why it matters. Completion percentage among all 100+ attempt QBs is a clean signal of accuracy and decision-making — leading the entire NFL in that metric while also going 4-3 as an unplanned starter is the kind of efficiency that defines a backup's franchise value.
Among UDFA QBs thrust into emergency starts since 2010, Browning's 2023 EPA/play (+0.087) ranks 3rd — behind only Keenum's 2017 miracle run and Mullens 2018.
ComparisonUDFA emergency starters — best season EPA/play (5+ starts)
| QB | Season | Starts | Cmp% | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Mullens | 2018 | 8 | 64.2% | +0.112 |
| Case Keenum | 2017 | 15 | 67.6% | +0.109 |
| Jake Browning | 2023 | 8 | 70.7% | +0.087 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 2021 | 16 | 65.0% | -0.079 |
| Cooper Rush | 2022 | 6 | 57.7% | -0.089 |
Why it matters. EPA/play normalizes for game script and team quality — posting +0.087 as an undrafted backup means Browning was genuinely moving the chains efficiently, not just benefiting from being on a good team. Only two other UDFA emergency starters in this era matched positive EPA.
His CIN 2023 stretch (12 TDs, 7 INTs in 8 games) posted 242 Yds/g — below Burrow's 2021 pace (288 Yds/g) but above the 2023 league average of 225 Yds/g.
ComparisonBrowning 2023 vs Burrow 2021 vs League avg 2023
| Player / Cohort | Yds/g | TD/g | Cmp% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burrow 2021 | 288 | 2.13 | 70.4% |
| Browning 2023 | 242 | 1.50 | 70.4% |
| League avg 2023 | 225 | 1.32 | 64.6% |
Why it matters. Beating the league average in yards, TDs, and completion rate — while matching Burrow's famous 2021 accuracy — shows this wasn't a 'don't lose the game' backup performance; it was a statistically above-average QB run by any measure.
He was Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year as a Washington sophomore (2016) — same year UW reached the CFP.
AnomalyBrowning at Washington
| Phase | Detail |
|---|---|
| UW commit | 2015 (early enrollee) |
| Pac-12 OPOY | 2016 |
| CFP semifinal | 2016 vs Alabama |
| Career UW TDs | 94 (school record) |
| NFL Draft | UDFA 2019 |
Why it matters. The disconnect between a Pac-12 OPOY/CFP semifinalist and going undrafted illustrates how prototype size and athleticism concerns can override production — making his eventual NFL efficiency (70.4% cmp%, +0.087 EPA/play) a validation of the college tape that evaluators dismissed.
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