Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

9 receiving TDs in 2024 on just 32 catches — a 28.1% TD-per-reception rate that led the entire NFL among WRs with 30+ catches.

Among 2024 WRs with 30+ catches, no one converted targets into TDs at a higher rate than NWI. The next closest, Rashod Bateman, was 6.5 percentage points behind.

His 9 TDs put him tied for 10th in the NFL (and tied for 9th among WRs) on roughly half the catches of most players on that list. It was a goal-line role that defensive coordinators never accounted for.

Why it matters. TD rate is sticky for a season but rarely a career trait — when a rotational WR posts a league-leading conversion rate, it tells you the offense schemed him into the red zone, not that he became a different receiver. That distinction matters when projecting him in a new system.

Five quiet seasons in Tennessee, then a 2025 move to Miami where the role hasn't translated.

NWI went undrafted in 2020, made the Titans as a special teamer, and stuck around for 5 seasons in a stable WR3 role: 25-38 catches, 370-497 yards, mostly with Ryan Tannehill and then Will Levis throwing him the ball.

Miami brought him in for 2025. Through 13 games he has just 11 catches, 89 yards, and 0 TDs — far below his Tennessee baseline at every line of the box score.

Why it matters. When a role-specific WR changes teams, the question is whether his value travelled with him or stayed with the scheme. NWI's 2025 Miami numbers — 20 targets in 13 games, zero TDs — answer that pretty bluntly so far.

Every single 2024 TD came in a game where he caught 5 passes or fewer — 9 TDs across 8 low-volume games.

In every one of the 8 games he scored in 2024, NWI caught 5 passes or fewer — and in 6 of the 8, he had 3 catches or fewer. He went on a 4-game TD streak (weeks 6-9), missed week 10, then scored again in weeks 11, 12, and 13 — 7 TD games out of 8 during that stretch.

He was effectively a designed goal-line target rather than a volume receiver: small target counts, low yards, but consistent end-zone trips. The pattern was unusual enough that it almost certainly couldn't repeat — and 2025 has been the regression.

Why it matters. Receivers who score on tiny target counts are usually benefitting from scheme rather than separation skill. The pattern is informative for projection: TDs concentrated in low-volume games tend to revert hard the next year, which is exactly what happened.

His 98-yard catch-and-run TD in Week 11 vs Minnesota was the longest receiving touchdown in the entire 2024 NFL season.

Will Levis hit NWI on a deep right shot for 98 yards and a TD — the longest receiving score of the entire 2024 season, beating Justin Jefferson by a yard.

It's also the split that defines his profile: career 13.5 yards per reception on an 11.2 aDOT says possession WR, but his biggest production spikes come on one or two huge plays rather than steady target volume. That MIN game line — 2 catches, 117 yards, 1 TD — captures the pattern.

Why it matters. Knowing whether a WR's production came from steady targets or a handful of explosive plays changes how durable it is. NWI's career line is more bursty than possession-WR averages suggest, even though his short aDOT looks possession-shaped.

Among WRs with 100-200 career catches since 2020, his 13.7% TD-per-reception rate ranks 2nd in the league — behind only Christian Watson.

Career totals: 139 catches, 1,879 yards, 19 TDs across 82 games — roughly 3.5 TDs per season for a rotational WR.

Filtering to the same rotational-WR cohort (100-200 career receptions since 2020), only Christian Watson has a higher TD-per-reception rate. The 2024 outlier season pulled NWI's rate up, but even stripping 2024 out he sits at 9.3% (10 TDs on 107 catches) — still above the cohort median.

The Dolphins counted on the 2024 version. Through 13 games they've gotten the 2020-2023 version back — minus the goal-line targets.

Why it matters. Sustained above-average TD rate on small samples is the strongest signal a low-target WR sends. It's how you tell apart a true red-zone weapon from a guy who got lucky once. NWI clears that bar by the data — but only when his offense feeds him at the goal line.