Player
Tua Tagovailoa
QB · ATL Falcons
Six seasons produced exactly one year that was both healthy and elite (2023), and that duality is the entire evaluation. The efficiency peaks prove the skill is real; the availability and the 2025 turnover spike explain why a former 5th overall pick changed teams at 28.
The Miami ledger
The Miami ledger closed ugly: from a 4,624-yard peak to a 15-interception exit season.
TrendTua in Miami, season by season (regular season)
| Season | Games | Yards | TD | INT | Comp % | PPR pts/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 13 | 3,548 | 25 | 8 | 64.8 | 17.8 |
| 2023 | 17 | 4,624 | 29 | 14 | 69.3 | 15.9 |
| 2024 | 11 | 2,867 | 19 | 7 | 72.9 | 16.5 |
| 2025 | 14 | 2,660 | 20 | 15 | 67.7 | 11.5 |
The arc is a full round trip: a 2022-2023 rise to the passing-yardage title season, a 2024 that was brilliant per throw but only 11 games long, and a 2025 that collapsed to 11.5 fantasy points per game with 15 interceptions on just 384 attempts. Atlanta is buying the whole ledger, not one row of it.
Why it matters. Six seasons produced exactly one year that was both healthy and elite (2023), and that duality is the entire evaluation. The efficiency peaks prove the skill is real; the availability and the 2025 turnover spike explain why a former 5th overall pick changed teams at 28.
His 2024 completion rate of 72.9% is the 3rd best season since 1999. The two above him are both Drew Brees.
MilestoneMost accurate seasons since 1999 (min 300 attempts)
| QB | Season | Comp % |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 2018 | 74.4 |
| Drew Brees | 2019 | 74.3 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2024 | 72.9 |
| Jared Goff | 2024 | 72.4 |
| Drew Brees | 2017 | 72.0 |
Across 27 seasons of data, only Brees has ever completed a higher share of his passes in a season than Tua's 72.9% in 2024. It was no fluke of shallow throws alone: his career completion rate over 2022-2025 sits at 64.9% with a +3.09 completion rate over expected, meaning he beats what the difficulty of his throws predicts, year after year.
Why it matters. Placement accuracy is the most transferable quarterback skill there is; it does not depend on a receiver corps or a scheme. Whatever else the Miami years left unresolved, Atlanta acquired one of the two or three most accurate throwers of the past quarter century, and accuracy is the trait that ages best.
24 giveaway events in 14 games: the 2025 turnover spike came out of nowhere in his own career.
AnomalyTua's interception rate by era
| Window | Attempts | INT | INT rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-2024 combined | 2,037 | 44 | 2.2% |
| 2025 alone | 384 | 15 | 3.9% |
Through five seasons Tua threw picks on 2.2% of attempts, a clean sheet by league standards. In 2025 the rate nearly doubled to 3.9%, and he put the ball on the ground 9 more times on top of the 15 interceptions. Two things can be true: the sudden spike is out of character for a career built on ball placement, and it is the single stat that most has to reverse in Atlanta.
Why it matters. One outlier season against a five-year baseline is the classic shape of variance plus a deteriorating situation rather than a new skill level, especially for a quarterback whose defining trait is accuracy. But 24 giveaways is not a number a playoff hopeful can absorb, which makes this the axis on which his entire Atlanta tenure will be graded.
The weather report
MYTH TEST: Tua disappears in the cold. Confirmed, and it is not close: elite in warmth, broken under 45 degrees.
EPA per dropback by game temperature (career, incl. playoffs)
| Split | Dropbacks | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|
| Tua, 45F or warmer / indoors | 2,285 | +0.142 |
| Tua, under 45F | 321 | -0.138 |
| League, 45F+ / indoors (2020-2025) | 100,486 | +0.021 |
| League, under 45F (2020-2025) | 15,694 | -0.024 |
Every quarterback gets a little worse in the cold; the league-wide drop is about 0.05 expected points per play. Tua's drop across 8 career cold-weather games is 0.28 points per play, six times the league penalty, taking him from genuinely elite (+0.142, with a +3.1 completion rate over expected overall) to well below replacement (-0.138). The folklore survives contact with the data completely.
Why it matters. Confirming a stereotype this cleanly is rare, and it reframes the Atlanta move as roster construction by climate: the Falcons play indoors, and division trips go to a New Orleans dome and outdoor Tampa and Carolina dates that rarely dip near freezing. The call is that the warm-weather version, which is the elite version, is the one Atlanta scheduled for.
The league's 5th-shortest throws meet an 820-yard checkdown catcher. This marriage was arranged.
SplitShortest average throw depth, 2025 (min 250 attempts)
| QB | Air yds/attempt |
|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 6.09 |
| Geno Smith | 6.20 |
| Jared Goff | 6.45 |
| Bryce Young | 6.51 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 6.84 |
Tua's average pass traveled 6.84 yards in 2025, fifth shortest among volume passers, and his quick-rhythm game has looked like that for years. In Atlanta the outlet is Bijan Robinson, who caught 79 passes for 820 yards in 2025, second among all backs and behind only McCaffrey. A short-area quarterback could hardly inherit a better short-area weapon.
Why it matters. Scheme fit is usually projection; this one is arithmetic. The throws Tua already makes most are the throws Robinson already wins most, so the floor of this pairing requires no one to develop anything new. The open question is the ceiling: someone still has to push the ball to the boundary for the offense to punish soft coverage.
The Atlanta reset
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT: clean-history QBs who spike to a 3.5% interception rate snap back every time. The call: under 2.5% in 2026.
QBs with a 3.5%+ INT season after a clean career (2.5% or less prior)
| QB | Spike year | Spike rate | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 2012 | 4.3% | 3.5% |
| Andrew Luck | 2015 | 4.1% | 2.4% |
| Dak Prescott | 2022 | 3.8% | 1.5% |
| Joe Flacco | 2013 | 3.6% | 2.2% |
| Kirk Cousins | 2024 | 3.5% | 1.9% |
Five times since 1999 an established quarterback with a career interception rate of 2.5% or less has suddenly spiked to 3.5% or worse. All five threw picks less often the next season, falling from an average of 3.9% to 2.3%. Tua's 2025 (3.9% after a 2.2% career) is the most extreme version of the pattern yet. The gradeable call: Tua's interception rate falls back under 2.5% in 2026.
Why it matters. Interception rate is among the noisiest quarterback stats year to year, which is exactly why a one-season doubling against a five-year baseline is more likely to be circumstance, a sinking Miami situation and pressing, than a new trait. The move to a dome, a top-2 checkdown target, and his still-elite accuracy all lean the same direction as the cohort.
The dome edge: Atlanta's roof and the NFC South map delete his one proven weakness.
SplitWhere the NFC South plays (2025 venues)
| Team | Home venue | Roof |
|---|---|---|
| ATL | Mercedes-Benz Stadium | closed |
| NO | Superdome | dome |
| TB | Raymond James Stadium | outdoors, warm |
| CAR | Bank of America Stadium | outdoors |
Tua's warm-or-indoor career line, +0.142 EPA per dropback across 2,285 plays, is the version of him Atlanta paid for, and the division schedule is built to serve it: eight-plus home games a year under a roof, a yearly trip to the New Orleans dome, and Tampa dates that never resemble a December night in Buffalo. The cold-weather sample that wrecked his Miami profile becomes, at most, a couple of road games a season.
Why it matters. Environment is the cheapest performance upgrade in football because it requires no improvement from the player. Miami's schedule forced his worst split onto the field every winter; Atlanta's mostly deletes it. Any projection built on his career averages quietly includes cold games he will now rarely play, which means the averages themselves understate the setup.
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