Player
Ashtyn Davis
S · Dolphins
A player almost cut three years into his career finishing ahead of higher-drafted classmates in year six exposes how unreliable early draft position is for safeties — and how scheme fit can resurrect a career.
A 2020 third-rounder who was nearly cut after 3 tackles in 2022 — Davis is now one of the most active safeties from his entire draft class in 2025.
Trend2020 draft class DBs (rounds 2–5): 2025 tackles leaders
| Player | Pick | 2025 Tackles |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Chinn | 64 | 64 |
| Antoine Winfield Jr. | 45 | 53 |
| Xavier McKinney | 36 | 52 |
| Grant Delpit | 44 | 45 |
| Jaylinn Hawkins | 134 | 44 |
| Amik Robertson | 139 | 42 |
| Brandon Jones | 70 | 42 |
| Ashtyn Davis | 68 | 41 |
| Kyle Dugger | 37 | 29 |
| Trevon Diggs | 51 | 20 |
Davis (pick 68) was drafted from Cal in 2020, spent five seasons as a rotational/special-teams piece in New York, and was almost irrelevant after a 3-tackle 2022 season. He signed with Miami in 2025 and has posted 41 tackles — making him the 8th most active safety from his entire rounds 2–5 draft class in a season where several higher picks (Trevon Diggs, 51st overall: 20 tackles) have faded.
Of 28 DBs taken in rounds 2–5 in the 2020 class, only 7 have more tackles than Davis in 2025.
Why it matters. A player almost cut three years into his career finishing ahead of higher-drafted classmates in year six exposes how unreliable early draft position is for safeties — and how scheme fit can resurrect a career.
Davis's 2024 TFL rate ranks 11th out of 1,369 safety seasons since 2020 — but nobody noticed because he only had 23 tackles.
SplitTop safety single-season TFL% (min 15 tackles, 2020–2025)
| Player | Season | Tackles | TFL | TFL% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Hilton | 2024 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% |
| Roger McCreary | 2024 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% |
| K'Waun Williams | 2020 | 16 | 5 | 31.3% |
| Desmond King | 2023 | 17 | 5 | 29.4% |
| Duron Harmon | 2023 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% |
| Troy Hill | 2021 | 28 | 7 | 25.0% |
| Jourdan Lewis | 2025 | 20 | 5 | 25.0% |
| Tre'von Moehrig | 2025 | 60 | 14 | 23.3% |
| Mike Hilton | 2023 | 53 | 12 | 22.6% |
| Ja'Quan McMillian | 2023 | 31 | 7 | 22.6% |
| Ashtyn Davis | 2024 | 23 | 5 | 21.7% |
In 2024, Davis recorded 5 tackles for loss on just 23 tackles — a 21.7% TFL rate. Among 1,369 safety seasons (2020–2025) with 15+ tackles, that ranks 11th all-time in the database. The players ahead of him (Hilton, McCreary, K'Waun Williams) are known as disruptive slot defenders; Davis did it as a rotational back-end safety.
His career TFL rate across 6 seasons: 12 TFL on 146 tackles = 8.2% — against a 355-player safety cohort average of 5.0% (min 50 career tackles). The disruption is real; the snap count has hidden it.
Why it matters. A safety posting a top-11 single-season TFL rate since 2020 — while mostly invisible on the stat sheet — reframes Davis as a genuine run-stopper rather than a coverage depth piece.
In 2023, Davis had 3 fumble recoveries AND 8 pass deflections on just 19 tackles — the only DB to do that with under 20 tackles since 2020.
RareDB seasons with 3+ FR and 6+ PDs (2020–2025)
| Player | Season | Tackles | FR | PDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Winfield Jr. | 2023 | 64 | 4 | 12 |
| Riq Woolen | 2022 | 45 | 3 | 16 |
| J.C. Jackson | 2020 | 31 | 3 | 14 |
| Rasul Douglas | 2023 | 44 | 3 | 14 |
| Marcus Jones | 2025 | 44 | 3 | 11 |
| Nahshon Wright | 2025 | 50 | 3 | 11 |
| Jevon Holland | 2021 | 44 | 3 | 10 |
| Ashtyn Davis | 2023 | 19 | 3 | 8 |
| Cooper DeJean | 2024 | 37 | 3 | 6 |
| Antoine Winfield Jr. | 2021 | 59 | 3 | 6 |
| DeShon Elliott | 2024 | 61 | 3 | 6 |
| Tyrann Mathieu | 2021 | 57 | 3 | 6 |
Since 2020, only 12 DB-seasons have combined 3+ fumble recoveries with 6+ pass deflections. Davis's 2023 is the only one on that list where the player had fewer than 20 tackles. Every other player (Winfield, Woolen, Jackson) did it from a volume platform of 30–64 tackles. Davis did it in a rotational/special-teams role on 19 total tackles.
Fumble recoveries are luck-dependent, but the 2023 season reveals a player who was consistently in disruptive positions — 3 FRs + 1 FF + 8 PDs on minimal reps is the kind of outlier a coordinator notices.
Why it matters. High takeaway production on low snap counts is the rarest combination in football — it means nearly every rep produced a disruptive event. Davis's 2023 had a turnover-event rate that no other DB on a comparable snap budget matched across 6 seasons.
5 forced fumbles in 146 career tackles — a 3.4% strip rate, top 9% among 355 safeties since 2020.
AnomalySafety career FF rate leaders (min 50 tackles, 2020–2025)
| Player | Tackles | FF | FF% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Norman | 58 | 8 | 13.8% |
| Michael Ojemudia | 62 | 4 | 6.5% |
| Terrance Mitchell | 118 | 7 | 5.9% |
| Marcus Peters | 102 | 6 | 5.9% |
| Akayleb Evans | 68 | 4 | 5.9% |
| James Pierre | 92 | 5 | 5.4% |
| Tavierre Thomas | 132 | 7 | 5.3% |
| Marlon Humphrey | 276 | 14 | 5.1% |
| Coby Bryant | 138 | 7 | 5.1% |
| P.J. Locke | 100 | 5 | 5.0% |
| Avonte Maddox | 146 | 7 | 4.8% |
| Trent McDuffie | 171 | 8 | 4.7% |
| Ashtyn Davis | 146 | 5 | 3.4% |
Davis's career FF rate of 3.42% (5 FF / 146 tackles) ranks 30th out of 355 S/DB players with 50+ career tackles since 2020. The cohort average is 1.46% — Davis is more than 2× the baseline. Among the top 30, only Davis and Avonte Maddox have the exact same tackle count (146) with Davis slightly behind on FF rate (3.42% vs 4.79%).
Strip production at this rate — 9 total turnover events (5 FF + 4 FR) in 6 seasons across limited snaps — points to a player who attacks the ball on contact rather than defaulting to form tackles.
Why it matters. Forced fumble rate normalizes strip production for playing time. A safety in the top 9% of this metric since 2020 — with fewer career tackles than a typical single-season starter — is a ball-hawk who thrives in limited doses.
Jets 5-season NYJ total: 105 tackles, 15 PDs, 9 TFL. Miami 2025 alone: 41 tackles, 4 PDs, 3 TFL — already 39% of NYJ production in one year.
SplitDavis: NYJ vs MIA production (regular season)
| Stint | Seasons | Tackles | PDs | TFL | FF | FR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | 5 | 105 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 4 |
| MIA | 1 | 41 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
In five Jets seasons (2020–2024), Davis accumulated 105 tackles, 15 PDs, 9 TFL, 4 FF, 4 FR. In one Miami season (2025), he already has 41 tackles, 4 PDs, 3 TFL, 1 FF — that is 39% of his entire NYJ tackle total in a single year.
The yearly averages tell the story: 21 tackles/season in New York vs 41 so far in Miami. The scheme change under Anthony Weaver doubled his on-field impact. The underlying disruption metrics (TFL, FF) remained consistent — the volume finally arrived.
Why it matters. When a player's single-season output approaches 40% of a five-season total at the same position, it means he wasn't being used — not that he wasn't good. The Dolphins are running the experiment the Jets never did.
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