Player
Trevor Lawrence
QB · JAX Jaguars
The shape of this career matters as much as the 2025 level: every full healthy season Lawrence has played under a competent staff (2022, 2023, 2025) landed between good and excellent, while the two wrecked years (a dysfunctional rookie situation, a 10-game injury season) supplied the bust narrative. 2025 is what the underlying pattern looks like when nothing interferes for 17 straight weeks.
The year it clicked
From 3-14 to 13-4: year five is when the number one pick finally looked like one.
TrendLawrence year by year (regular season)
| Season | Games | Pass yds | TD-INT | Rush TD | PPR/game | JAX record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 17 | 3,641 | 12-17 | 2 | 11.7 | 3-14 |
| 2022 | 17 | 4,113 | 25-8 | 5 | 17.4 | 9-8 |
| 2023 | 16 | 4,016 | 21-14 | 4 | 16.4 | 9-8 |
| 2024 | 10 | 2,045 | 11-7 | 3 | 14.5 | 4-13 |
| 2025 | 17 | 4,007 | 29-12 | 9 | 19.9 | 13-4 |
Four seasons of tease: two 9-8 years sandwiched between a brutal rookie season and an injury-ruined 2024. Then 2025 delivered the version the 2021 draft promised: 4,007 yards, 29 touchdown passes, 9 more on the ground, 19.9 PPR points a game, and a 13-4 record. It was his first season winning more than nine games, and his first finishing better than QB8 in points per game.
Why it matters. The shape of this career matters as much as the 2025 level: every full healthy season Lawrence has played under a competent staff (2022, 2023, 2025) landed between good and excellent, while the two wrecked years (a dysfunctional rookie situation, a 10-game injury season) supplied the bust narrative. 2025 is what the underlying pattern looks like when nothing interferes for 17 straight weeks.
QB5 in points per game, ahead of Purdy, Hurts, and Prescott, and nobody is pricing him like it.
Comparison2025 PPR points per game, QBs with 8+ games (regular season)
| Rank | QB | PPR/game |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | 22.8 |
| 2 | Drake Maye | 20.7 |
| 3 | Matthew Stafford | 20.6 |
| 4 | Patrick Mahomes | 20.4 |
| 5 | Trevor Lawrence | 19.9 |
Lawrence's 19.9 PPR points per game ranked 5th among all quarterbacks in 2025, a few decimals behind Mahomes and ahead of Brock Purdy, Jalen Hurts, and Dak Prescott. His 2026 fantasy price: ADP 93, the 8th round, roughly the 10th or 11th QB off the board. The market is selling last season's fifth-best scorer at nearly half the draft capital of the names around him on this table.
Why it matters. A top-5 points-per-game finish over a full 17-game season is not a fluke sample, and the components (29 passing TDs, 9 rushing TDs, 4,000 yards) come from enough different categories that no single regression kills it. When a market prices a player three rounds below his most recent finish, it is making a specific claim, that 2025 was the outlier season. The rest of this set tests that claim.
He closed the season scoring 28.3 a game: 18 touchdowns in the final five weeks.
SplitLawrence 2025, the final stretch (weeks 15-18)
| Measure | Final 5 games | Season average |
|---|---|---|
| PPR/game | 28.3 | 19.9 |
| Passing TDs | 14 | 29 total |
| Rushing TDs | 4 | 9 total |
Lawrence's last five games of 2025 produced 28.3 PPR points a game with 14 passing and 4 rushing touchdowns, nearly half his season touchdown output compressed into the fantasy playoff weeks. Whatever clicked in Jacksonville's offense clicked hardest at the end: the closing five-game stretch was, on a per-game basis, the best sustained run of his career.
Why it matters. How a season ends carries modest predictive weight on its own, but it answers a specific question about Lawrence: whether the good 2025 was front-loaded luck that defenses solved. The opposite occurred, the scoring accelerated as the season aged and as opponents accumulated film. For fantasy purposes it also means his managers got the ceiling exactly when it mattered, in the playoff weeks.
How he scores
Nine rushing touchdowns: only Josh Allen had more among quarterbacks.
AnomalyQB rushing TDs, 2025 (regular season)
| Rank | QB | Rush TDs |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | 14 |
| 2 (tie) | Trevor Lawrence | 9 |
| 2 (tie) | Jaxson Dart | 9 |
| 4 | Jalen Hurts | 8 |
Nobody drafts Lawrence for his legs, and yet his 9 rushing touchdowns trailed only Josh Allen in 2025. They came attached to a real role: 359 rushing yards, 21 a game, with Jacksonville repeatedly calling his number at the goal line. Rushing scores are the great fantasy multiplier at quarterback, 54 points in 2025, the gap between his QB5 finish and roughly QB9 without them.
Why it matters. The lazy read is that 9 rushing TDs is a fluke to fade. The data reads differently: for quarterbacks who sustain a meaningful carry floor, and Lawrence has run for 290+ yards in every healthy season, rushing touchdown totals persist far more than folklore says, because the short-yardage package is a coaching commitment to the same player. His previous full seasons produced 5 and 4; the realistic 2026 range is 4-7, not zero.
The fantasy points outran the efficiency: QB5 in scoring, 14th in EPA per dropback.
SplitLawrence 2025: two scoreboards
| Measure | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| PPR points/game | 19.9 | 5th |
| EPA per dropback | +0.055 | 14th of 27 |
| Pass attempts | 560 | top-5 volume |
| JAX plays/game | 63.2 | 7th in NFL |
By per-play efficiency Lawrence was an average starter in 2025: +0.055 EPA per dropback, 14th of 27 qualifiers. The QB5 fantasy season was built on top of that with volume and legs: 560 attempts in the NFL's 7th-fastest offense, plus 9 rushing touchdowns. That is a sturdier fantasy formula than it sounds, volume and role repeat more reliably than efficiency spikes, but it does mean his real-football level and his fantasy level are two different claims.
Why it matters. Splitting production into efficiency and opportunity tells you which part to trust. Lawrence's opportunity inputs (attempt volume, team pace, goal-line role) are coaching decisions that persist; his middling EPA is the part with room to move in either direction. A fantasy asset whose scoring rests on persistent components is safer than one riding an efficiency peak, which is the quiet argument for him against several QBs ranked nearby.
The 2021 QB class is a graveyard. Lawrence has 98 touchdown passes; no classmate reached 70.
Comparison2021 first-round QBs, career passing TDs through 2025 (regular season)
| QB | Pick | Games | Pass TDs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 1 | 77 | 98 |
| Mac Jones | 15 | 63 | 67 |
| Justin Fields | 11 | 59 | 52 |
| Zach Wilson | 2 | 38 | 23 |
| Trey Lance | 3 | 16 | 5 |
Five quarterbacks went in the 2021 first round. Four years on, Lawrence's 98 touchdown passes lead the class by 31, and he is the only one of the five who has never lost his starting job. Zach Wilson (pick 2) and Trey Lance (pick 3) have combined for 28 career touchdown throws. Whatever disappointment his first four seasons carried, they carried it from inside the lineup, while the rest of the class fell out of it.
Why it matters. Draft-class context recalibrates what disappointment means. Roughly half of first-round quarterbacks never produce a startable season; the 2021 class ran worse than that baseline, with picks 2 and 3 out of the league's starting jobs by year three. Against the realistic distribution of QB outcomes rather than the hype he entered with, Lawrence sits in the top bucket: five seasons, no benching, a class-leading touchdown ledger, and now a 13-win season.
The eighth-round argument
The 13-4 was earned the convincing way: 7-1 in blowouts, +138 in points.
StorylineJacksonville 2025, record by game type (regular season)
| Split | Record |
|---|---|
| Games decided by 9+ | 7-1 |
| One-score games (8 or fewer) | 6-3 |
| Point differential | +138 (+8.1/game) |
Breakout team seasons often hide a warning: a pile of narrow escapes that will not repeat. Jacksonville's 2025 mostly does not. The Jaguars went 7-1 when games were decided by more than one score and outscored opponents by 8.1 points a game, a margin that matches, rather than flatters, a 13-win record. The 6-3 mark in close games is the only slice running slightly hot.
Why it matters. For Lawrence's 2026 outlook, the quality of the team season around him matters because it sets his volume and game-script environment. A 13-4 record built on point differential and decisive wins is the kind that persists into a competitive follow-up season far more often than one built on one-score records, which means the offensive context that produced his QB5 season is likely to still exist next year.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT: young QBs who crack the top five stay in the top ten. Lawrence finishes top-10 in 2026.
QBs aged 26 or younger finishing top-5 in PPR/game, 2006-2024
| Cohort measure | Next season |
|---|---|
| Seasons in cohort | 36 |
| Top-5 again | 18 of 36 |
| Top-10 | 24 of 36 |
| Average next-season finish | QB7.3 |
Lawrence turned in a top-5 points-per-game season at age 26. The 36 quarterbacks since 2006 who did that at his age or younger averaged a QB7.3 finish the following season; two-thirds stayed inside the top 10 and half repeated in the top 5. His scoring rests on components that repeat (attempt volume, team pace, a goal-line rushing role) rather than an efficiency spike that does not. The gradeable call: Lawrence finishes top-10 among QBs in PPR points per game in 2026.
Why it matters. The cohort answers the exact question his 8th-round price poses: how often does a young QB's first top-5 season turn out to be the peak rather than the arrival? Historically, only about a third of the time does the follow-up fall outside the top 10. The team's win count regressing (which history does predict) is not the same claim as the quarterback's scoring regressing; volume-based QB scoring survives a 10-7 season comfortably.
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