Trey Sermon

The only 2021 draft RB on his 4th team — and his entire career (134 carries) barely edges Rhamondre Stevenson's rookie year (133 carries).

Sermon was the first RB off the board after the three 1st-rounders (Harris-24, Etienne-25, Williams-35) in 2021 — and every single RB drafted after him in that class accumulated more career carries.

Stevenson (R4, pick 120) had 133 carries as a rookie alone in 2021. Sermon's entire five-season career total is 134 carries. Two sixth-rounders from the same class — Khalil Herbert (217) and Elijah Mitchell (194) — outrushed him by 3x and 2.4x respectively.

Sermon is also the only player from the 2021 RB draft class on his 4th team; every other classmate with meaningful production stayed on 1-2 franchises.

Why it matters. The draft position inversion is starker than any other in the 2021 class — Sermon was the consensus top Day 2 RB, yet every Round 4-6 back drafted after him accumulated more career carries.

Career-best game (89 yds on 19 carries vs Seattle as a rookie) is still his ceiling 4 years later.

Sermon's 89-yard outing as a rookie against Seattle was the day SF's coaching staff expected to keep happening. Instead his next 17+ carry game came 27 months later (88 yds vs Pittsburgh, Dec 2023).

His 2024 game with 18 carries produced only 29 rushing yards (1.61 YPC) — the lead-back chance the Colts gave him in Week 6, and it ended the audition immediately.

Why it matters. A player's career ceiling being set in Week 4 of his rookie season — and never eclipsed across 5 seasons — is a precise marker of stagnation, more telling than any season average.

2024: 56 carries, peak game just 38 yards — only Roschon Johnson had a lower single-game peak among RBs with 50+ carries.

In the entire 2024 NFL season, only 2 RBs with 50+ carries never topped 38 rushing yards in a single game: Trey Sermon and Roschon Johnson.

Of Sermon's 9 rushing games in 2024, his best was 10 carries for 38 yards (Week 5 vs JAX). His 18-carry start in Week 6 vs Tennessee produced just 29 yards (1.61 YPC) — the lowest YPC of any 18+ carry game by any RB in 2024.

The season total: 56 carries, 159 yards (2.84 YPC), with 16 receptions for 99 yards as his real contribution.

Why it matters. A 50-carry RB with no single game over 38 yards means there was no breakout moment — no game the team could point to as justification for continued use. The floor and ceiling were the same all season.

Picked 88th overall (2021). Picked behind him at RB: Khalil Herbert (217), Elijah Mitchell (194), Kenneth Gainwell (150).

The 2021 RB class produced Najee Harris (24), Travis Etienne (25), Javonte Williams (35) at the top — Sermon was the next RB taken. Several Day 3 backs went on to outproduce him significantly:

- Elijah Mitchell (Round 6, 194): 963 rushing yards as a rookie in the same San Francisco backfield - Khalil Herbert (Round 6, 217): 731 yards in CHI in 2022 - Kenneth Gainwell (Round 5, 150): reached a 5th NFL season in 2025 (with PIT), accumulating 394 career carries vs. Sermon's 134

Sermon's career rushing total: 505 yards across 5 seasons.

Why it matters. The draft-slot inversion is the purest measure of value — Gainwell, Herbert, and Mitchell were all taken 62-129 picks after Sermon yet each accumulated 2x-7x his career rushing production.

IND gave him 23 games and 91 carries over 2 seasons — but only ONE game at Indy ever produced 40+ rushing yards.

In 23 games and 91 carries with Indianapolis (2023-24), Sermon hit 40+ rushing yards exactly once — a 17-carry, 88-yard game against Pittsburgh in Week 15 of 2023 that briefly looked like a breakthrough.

His 2024 follow-up: 15 games, 56 carries, 159 yards (2.84 YPC). That single 88-yard outlier in 2023 was the data point keeping him in Indy's plans. After 2024, they let him walk.

For context: SF used him in 6 games (41 carries) in 2021; PHI used him in 1 game (2 carries) in 2022. Indianapolis was his most patient employer by a wide margin.

Why it matters. One good game across 23 starts is the exact decision signal that explains an RB's career arc — teams cycle through him hoping to replicate the outlier, then stop when it doesn't come.

Only 2021 RB draft pick on his 4th team — 134 career carries, fewer than a 4th-round rookie from the same class had in his first season.

Sermon is the sole 2021 draft RB on his 4th team and has fewer career carries (134) than Stevenson racked up as a rookie alone (133 carries in 2021).

Among the 10 RBs from the 2021 class with 40+ career carries, Sermon ranks last in rushing yards by a wide margin: 505 yards vs. the next-lowest Mitchell's 1,523 yards (3x more). Two sixth-rounders from the same class — Herbert (R6, pick 217) and Mitchell (R6, 194) — have each outrushed him by at least 3x.

Why it matters. Having fewer career carries than a 4th-round pick's single rookie season — while being the highest RB drafted outside the first round in that class — is the most precise measurement of draft-value destruction in the 2021 class.