Player
Zach Wilson
QB
Completion rate is the single most stable QB efficiency metric and the strongest predictor of long-term starter viability. A 57% mark isn't just bad — it was historically bad for a first-round QB in the modern pass-first NFL, where every peer averaged 60%+. The gap to the second-worst qualifier (Fields at 60.3%) is larger than the gap between Fields and Aaron Rodgers (66.7%).
Dead last in completion % among all 800+ attempt QBs in the 2021–2023 era: 57.0% — 3.3 points below Justin Fields, who ranked 2nd worst.
Milestone2021–2023 completion % (800+ att) — bottom 6
| QB | Comp% | Att |
|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 57.0% | 993 |
| Justin Fields | 60.3% | 958 |
| Baker Mayfield | 62.0% | 1,319 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 62.5% | 889 |
| Carson Wentz | 62.6% | 816 |
| Davis Mills | 62.8% | 912 |
Why it matters. Completion rate is the single most stable QB efficiency metric and the strongest predictor of long-term starter viability. A 57% mark isn't just bad — it was historically bad for a first-round QB in the modern pass-first NFL, where every peer averaged 60%+. The gap to the second-worst qualifier (Fields at 60.3%) is larger than the gap between Fields and Aaron Rodgers (66.7%).
He was dead last in completion % in 2022 (54.5%) — behind Joe Flacco, Deshaun Watson, and every other QB with 100+ attempts.
Anomaly2022 completion % — bottom 5 (100+ att)
| QB | Comp% | Att |
|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 54.5% | 242 |
| Skylar Thompson | 57.1% | 105 |
| Joe Flacco | 57.6% | 191 |
| Cooper Rush | 58.0% | 162 |
| Deshaun Watson | 58.2% | 170 |
Why it matters. 2022 was Wilson's second year under head coach Robert Saleh with a full offseason to develop. Instead of improving, his accuracy regressed. Being ranked last in completion % in a 47-QB field — behind journeymen and returning-from-suspension quarterbacks — was the decisive data point that ended his Jets tenure.
His 2022 best game (355 yds, 2 TDs vs NE) had 3 INTs and 48.8% completion. His high-YPA games consistently came with low accuracy.
SplitWilson top-5 games by passing yards
| Season | Wk | Yds | Y/A | Comp% | TDs | INTs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 8 | 355 | 8.66 | 48.8% | 2 | 3 |
| 2022 | 15 | 317 | 9.06 | 51.4% | 2 | 1 |
| 2023 | 14 | 301 | 8.36 | 75.0% | 2 | 0 |
| 2021 | 4 | 297 | 8.74 | 61.8% | 2 | 1 |
| 2023 | 9 | 263 | 5.37 | 67.3% | 0 | 0 |
Why it matters. Wilson had genuine arm talent — his best games show 8–10 yards per attempt — but the accuracy never arrived. He could attack vertically when things broke right, but his completion percentage on those same games often collapsed below 50%. This arm-talent/accuracy split is exactly what scouts debated at the draft and what ultimately ended his career.
He threw 4 INTs in Week 2 of his rookie year (2021) against the Patriots — one of the worst single-game performances by a #2 overall pick in the modern era.
RareWilson Week 2 2021 vs Patriots
| Stat | Value |
|---|---|
| Passing yards | 210 |
| Completions/Att | 19/33 (57.6%) |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Interceptions | 4 |
| Opponent | NE (Belichick) |
Why it matters. Four-interception games are genuinely rare events for starting QBs — they indicate a complete breakdown of reads and decision-making, not just inaccuracy. Week 2 of a rookie year is only the second start of an NFL career. Setting a Jets franchise tone with 4 INTs against Bill Belichick created a confidence spiral that arguably never recovered.
His 2021 class had 5 QBs drafted in the top 15 — by 2025 only Lawrence remained a starter, but the data shows Wilson's collapse was the steepest.
Comparison2021 QB class — career stats through 2024
| QB | Pick | Comp% | TD/INT | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 1 | N/A | N/A | JAX starter |
| Zach Wilson | 2 | 57.0% | 23/25 | MIA backup |
| Trey Lance | 3 | N/A | N/A | Out of NFL |
| Justin Fields | 11 | 60.3% | 40/30 | PIT |
| Mac Jones | 15 | N/A | N/A | Backup |
Why it matters. Draft busts in the QB position are expensive — teams lose 3-4 years of a first-round pick's rookie contract window plus the cap hit to move on. The 2021 class stands out because Wilson, Lance, and Jones all failed within their rookie contracts, but Wilson's statistical profile (57% comp, 0.92 TD:INT ratio) was uniquely bad compared to his classmates' exit lines.
His 2020 BYU line: 73.5% completion, 11.0 Y/A, 33 TDs / 3 INTs. NFL career: 57.0% completion, 6.34 Y/A, 23 TDs / 25 INTs.
AnomalyWilson: BYU 2020 vs NFL career
| Stat | BYU 2020 | NFL career |
|---|---|---|
| Comp % | 73.5% | 57.0% |
| Y/A | 11.0 | 6.34 |
| TD/INT ratio | 33/3 (11.0x) | 23/25 (0.92x) |
| Games | 12 | 38 |
Why it matters. College-to-NFL translation is notoriously hard for QBs, but Wilson's specific gap — 73.5% to 57.0% in completion rate, and an 11.0 TD:INT ratio collapsing to under 1.0 — is extreme even by historical bust standards. BYU's non-Power-Five schedule inflated his numbers, but the magnitude of the NFL collapse exposed that the accuracy he showed in college was scheme-dependent, not transferable to NFL-speed reads and coverage.
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