Player
Chris Olave
WR · NO Saints
Target share is the single most predictive early signal a receiver can carry into a new season: it reflects a coaching staff's allocation decision, which changes slowly, rather than a hot stretch, which does not. Olave holding a fifth-in-football target count on a bad offense with a rookie quarterback is close to the ceiling for role security. Any offensive improvement in New Orleans flows through him before anyone else.
The target monopoly
156 targets, fifth-most of any receiver in football, and 54 more than the next Saint.
ComparisonMost WR targets, 2025 regular season
| WR | Targets | Catches | Yards |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 185 | 125 | 1412 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 172 | 117 | 1401 |
| Puka Nacua | 166 | 129 | 1715 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 163 | 119 | 1793 |
| Chris Olave | 156 | 100 | 1163 |
Only four receivers in the NFL saw more targets than Olave's 156 in 2025, and each of them plays in a far healthier passing offense. Inside his own building it was not close: the next Saint, tight end Juwan Johnson, saw 102, and no other New Orleans wideout topped 66. Whoever plays quarterback in New Orleans, the ball is going to No. 12.
Why it matters. Target share is the single most predictive early signal a receiver can carry into a new season: it reflects a coaching staff's allocation decision, which changes slowly, rather than a hot stretch, which does not. Olave holding a fifth-in-football target count on a bad offense with a rookie quarterback is close to the ceiling for role security. Any offensive improvement in New Orleans flows through him before anyone else.
The Saints have had two 100-catch receivers in the last 27 seasons. Michael Thomas is one. Olave just became the other.
MilestoneSaints 100-reception seasons, 1999-2025 (regular season)
| Player | Season | Catches |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 2019 | 149 |
| Michael Thomas | 2018 | 125 |
| Michael Thomas | 2017 | 104 |
| Chris Olave | 2025 | 100 |
Four 100-catch seasons in 27 years of Saints football, and three belong to peak Michael Thomas with Drew Brees throwing. Olave's 100 catches in 2025 are the fourth, and the only one produced without a Hall of Fame quarterback: his season was split almost evenly between a fifth-round sophomore and a rookie.
Why it matters. Thomas's catch totals were partly a Brees artifact, short, hyper-accurate passing inflating receptions. Olave hit the same century mark with the NFL's 28th-ranked scoring offense (18.0 points a game), which makes it a purer statement about his own separation and hands. Receivers who can get to 100 catches in a bad offense have historically aged into monster seasons when the offense stops being bad.
Every healthy season: 1,000 yards, never fewer, never a spike. The steadiest producer at his position.
TrendOlave season by season (regular season)
| Season | Games | Rec | Yards | Yards per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 15 | 72 | 1042 | 69.5 |
| 2023 | 16 | 87 | 1123 | 70.2 |
| 2024 | 8 | 32 | 400 | 50.0 |
| 2025 | 16 | 100 | 1163 | 72.7 |
Three seasons of 15+ games, three seasons of 1,042 to 1,163 yards, at 69.5, 70.2, and 72.7 yards per game. The 2024 concussion year is the only interruption, and even the surrounding numbers barely moved. Four different primary quarterbacks across the span (Dalton, Carr, Rattler, Shough), one output.
Why it matters. Scrimmage yards per game is among the most stable year-over-year numbers in football because it compounds two sticky things, role and skill, and Olave's band is freakishly narrow: 3.2 yards per game separates his three healthy seasons despite constant quarterback churn. Stability at 70 a game is a top-15 receiver floor; the open question has never been the floor, it is whether a functional offense can add a ceiling to it.
Where the yards live
390 yards short, 380 intermediate, 393 deep. One receiver, three identical businesses.
AnomalyOlave 2025 production by target depth (regular season)
| Depth | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Short (under 10 air yds) | 81 | 64 | 390 | 2 |
| Intermediate (10-19) | 44 | 26 | 380 | 3 |
| Deep (20+) | 31 | 10 | 393 | 4 |
Split Olave's 2025 targets into three depth bands and the yardage comes out almost comically even: 390, 380, 393. He caught 64 underneath passes like a possession receiver, converted intermediate windows, and still converted 10 deep balls for 393 yards and 4 scores. His slice of the Saints' downfield air yards, 39.4%, was fourth-largest of any receiver in football.
Why it matters. Most receivers earn their yards from one primary depth; a three-way even split means no defensive plan removes him with a single coverage answer. The downfield share matters separately: a receiver's slice of his team's air yards is one of the stickiest usage numbers year over year, so the 39.4% figure is a durable claim on the most valuable targets in the offense, not a one-season quirk.
Same receiver, two quarterbacks: 6.3 yards per target with Rattler, 8.2 with Shough.
SplitOlave 2025 by passer (regular season)
| Passer | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Avg depth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Rattler | 77 | 48 | 483 | 3 | 10.0 |
| Tyler Shough | 78 | 51 | 642 | 5 | 13.3 |
Olave's season splits almost perfectly in half: 77 targets from Rattler, 78 from Shough. The volume never changed; the value did. With Shough he gained 642 yards on 8.2 per target and scored 5 times, against 483 and 3 with Rattler, and his average target arrived 3.3 yards deeper downfield. The rookie did not feed Olave more. He fed him better.
Why it matters. The per-target efficiency gap maps directly onto the depth gap: Shough pushed Olave's usage back toward the downfield profile of his 1,000-yard 2022-23 seasons, while Rattler used him as a checkdown outlet. If Shough holds the job in 2026, the relevant Olave sample is the 78-target half-season at 8.2 a target, which annualizes to roughly 1,280 yards on the same 156-target workload.
The 2026 case
What happens next: 1,000 yards again in 2026. The role says yes louder than the injury history says maybe.
WR seasons with 150+ targets, 2010-2024: the following season
| Outcome next season | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Reached 1,000 yards | 52 of 95 | 55% |
| Reached 900 yards | 64 of 95 | 67% |
| No NFL season at all | 2 of 95 | 2% |
Ninety-five receiver seasons from 2010-2024 hit 150 targets. The year after, 55% got back to 1,000 yards and two-thirds reached 900, with the misses dominated by injury and team changes. Olave carries the two traits that separate the repeaters: he stays with his team, and his target share (fifth in football) is the kind that persists. The call: Olave clears 1,000 receiving yards in 2026. Grade it against his final 2026 regular-season line.
Why it matters. The base rate alone makes this near a coin flip, which is why the claim leans on what the base rate cannot see: his three-season yardage band of 69-73 per game, an unchanged team, and a quarterback under whom he averaged 8.2 yards a target. The realistic failure modes are the 2024 kind (another concussion) or a full offensive collapse, not a role change. At a second-round fantasy price, 1,000 yards is roughly the break-even, and everything above his 72.7 per game pace is profit.
A WR6 season at a late-second-round price, if you believe the 2024 file is closed.
What to watchThe draft-day ledger on Olave
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025 PPR finish among WRs | 6th (268.0 pts) |
| 2026 ADP | 21.5 overall (pick 2.10) |
| Games played by season | 15, 16, 8, 16 |
| Yards per game, healthy seasons | 69.5 / 70.2 / 72.7 |
Olave finished 2025 sixth among all receivers in PPR scoring, yet his 2026 price sits at 21.5 overall, a late-second-round pick. The discount is the 2024 concussion file: an 8-game season that is either a permanent risk factor or a closed chapter. The rest of the profile, three healthy seasons within three yards per game of each other and a locked 156-target role, is what receiver stability looks like.
Why it matters. Round-for-round, wide receiver outcomes cluster tighter around their draft price than any other position, which cuts in Olave's favor: steady-role receivers taken in round 2 rarely crater without injury. The market is charging roughly a round of discount for concussion recurrence, a risk nobody can quantify from a stat line. If he plays 16 games, the 2025 season just demonstrated what the role produces; the price only looks fair in the world where he does not.
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