Player
Brock Purdy
QB · SF 49ers
Yards per attempt is the oldest quarterback stat that still predicts winning, and the all-time-great seasons cluster around 9.2. A 9.71 sits alone. The 2023 season is also the proof of Purdy's ceiling case: with a healthy roster around him, his offense did not merely function, it produced the most efficient qualifying passing season in the data.
The efficiency file
9.71 yards per attempt in 2023. No qualifying QB season in this data comes within four tenths of it.
RareBest yards-per-attempt seasons, 1999-2025 (min 400 attempts, sacks excluded, reg season)
| Season | QB | Attempts | Y/A |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Brock Purdy | 441 | 9.71 |
| 2011 | Aaron Rodgers | 500 | 9.27 |
| 2004 | Peyton Manning | 495 | 9.21 |
| 2016 | Matt Ryan | 538 | 9.19 |
| 2025 | Drake Maye | 493 | 8.92 |
| 2021 | Joe Burrow | 520 | 8.87 |
Rodgers' 2011 MVP season and Manning's 49-touchdown 2004 are the two most famous efficiency seasons of the era. Purdy's 2023 beats both by almost half a yard per throw. At 9.71 yards per attempt on 441 attempts, it is the most productive per-throw season any quarterback has posted in the 27 years of this data, and it is not close.
Why it matters. Yards per attempt is the oldest quarterback stat that still predicts winning, and the all-time-great seasons cluster around 9.2. A 9.71 sits alone. The 2023 season is also the proof of Purdy's ceiling case: with a healthy roster around him, his offense did not merely function, it produced the most efficient qualifying passing season in the data.
MYTH TEST: 'Purdy just dumps it off and lets the YAC monsters eat.' He is 22nd of 26 in YAC dependence.
Share of passing yards gained after the catch, 2022-2025 (min 700 completions)
| Rank | QB | YAC share |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patrick Mahomes | 56.3% |
| 2 | Aaron Rodgers | 56.3% |
| 3 | Bo Nix | 54.0% |
| 4 | Kyler Murray | 52.8% |
| 5 | Baker Mayfield | 51.5% |
| 22 | Brock Purdy | 44.4% |
Completion % over expected, 2022-2025 (min 1,000 attempts)
| Rank | QB | CPOE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sam Darnold | +4.28 |
| 2 | Joe Burrow | +4.11 |
| 3 | Jalen Hurts | +4.10 |
| 4 | Brock Purdy | +3.87 |
| 5 | Geno Smith | +3.83 |
The story goes that San Francisco's catch-and-run stable manufactures Purdy's numbers. The data says the opposite: only 44.4 percent of his passing yards since 2022 came after the catch, 22nd out of 26 qualifying quarterbacks. The league's real YAC merchant is Patrick Mahomes at 56.3 percent. Meanwhile Purdy completes passes 3.87 points above expectation, 4th in the league over the same span. The ball placement is his.
Why it matters. This is the cleanest way to separate a system's contribution from a quarterback's: YAC share measures how much the receivers did after the ball arrived, CPOE measures how hard the throws were relative to how often they landed. Purdy scores low on the first and elite on the second, which is precisely the opposite signature of a passenger. The myth is busted on both ends.
What the league missed
The short quarterbacks out-throw the 6-foot-5 giants, and Purdy is the sharpest case on record.
AnomalyQB seasons with 100+ attempts, 2008-2025, grouped by listed height (reg season)
| Height group | Seasons | INT rate | Y/A |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6-foot-1 and under | 127 | 2.28% | 7.24 |
| Between | 466 | 2.41% | 7.17 |
| 6-foot-5 and taller | 187 | 2.55% | 7.10 |
Purdy career vs the height groups
| Measure | Purdy | Best group avg |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per attempt | 8.64 | 7.24 |
| INT rate | 2.7% | 2.28% |
The scouting worry about quarterbacks under 6-foot-2, that they cannot see lanes and will throw picks, runs backwards in the data: since 2008 the 6-foot-1-and-under group has a lower interception rate (2.28 vs 2.55 percent) and more yards per attempt (7.24 vs 7.10) than the 6-foot-5 group. Purdy, listed 6-foot-1, clears every group's yardage average by well over a full yard per throw. His 2.7 percent interception rate is his one ordinary number, inflated by the 2025 toe-injury season.
Why it matters. The filter is the mechanism: a short quarterback has to be special just to get on the field, so the ones who survive are a selected group. Purdy is the strongest version of that selection story, a 6-foot-1 passer who fell to pick 262 partly on build and now out-produces the prototype bodies on the exact axes the prototype was supposed to guarantee.
A toe ate eight of San Francisco's first ten games. Purdy came back and out-scored every QB but one down the stretch.
TrendPurdy's 2025, week by week (PPR points, reg season)
| Week | Points |
|---|---|
| 1 | 16.8 |
| 4 | 17.7 |
| 11 | 19.3 |
| 12 | 7.3 |
| 13 | 17.1 |
| 15 | 26.2 |
| 16 | 30.9 |
| 17 | 36.9 |
| 18 | 5.2 |
Most QB fantasy points, weeks 15-17 of 2025
| Rank | QB | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trevor Lawrence | 98.6 |
| 2 | Brock Purdy | 94.0 |
| 3 | Drake Maye | 76.6 |
| 4 | Matthew Stafford | 64.6 |
| 5 | Bo Nix | 63.7 |
The turf-toe injury wiped out eight of the 49ers' first ten games. The return was rusty (a 3-interception day in week 12), and then the file flipped: 26.2, 30.9, and 36.9 points in weeks 15, 16, and 17, second-most among all quarterbacks over that stretch. Across his nine games he averaged 19.7 points, 7th among quarterbacks who played 8 or more, with 20 touchdowns against 10 picks in nine starts.
Why it matters. An injury season creates two competing stories, and the order matters: the interceptions came in the first games off a three-month layoff, the 30-point weeks came once the toe and the timing returned. The closing month is the best available evidence of what a healthy 2026 looks like, and it was the best closing month of any quarterback in football except Lawrence.
The 2026 case
The under-center pass is the league's sneakiest edge, and Purdy banks it at nearly triple the league rate.
SplitPurdy career EPA per pass play by alignment (reg season)
| Alignment | Plays | EPA/play | Y/A |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under center | 306 | +0.282 | 9.69 |
| Shotgun | 1,124 | +0.201 | 8.39 |
League EPA per pass play by alignment, 2022-2025
| Alignment | Plays | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|
| Under center | 12,492 | +0.101 |
| Shotgun | 64,530 | -0.017 |
League-wide, passes from under center, where the defense still has to honor the handoff, beat shotgun passes by about a tenth of a point per play. Purdy's version of that split is a different animal: +0.282 per play and 9.69 yards per attempt from under center, nearly triple the league's under-center average. And his offense keeps feeding it: San Francisco ran the 6th-lowest shotgun rate in football in 2025 (53.9 percent).
Why it matters. This split is a scheme-and-player fit, not a trivia line. Play-action from under center is the structural core of the 49ers' passing game, and the team's low shotgun rate is among the most stable identity stats in football, so the exact context where Purdy is most dangerous is the one his offense is built to keep serving him in 2026.
Third down is the clutch down: Purdy leads the last decade at +0.285 a play, ahead of Mahomes.
Split3rd-down EPA per pass play, 2015-2025 (min 250 such plays, reg season)
| Rank | QB | Plays | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brock Purdy | 376 | +0.285 |
| 2 | Patrick Mahomes | 1,157 | +0.247 |
| 3 | Jimmy Garoppolo | 564 | +0.134 |
| 4 | Ben Roethlisberger | 965 | +0.098 |
| 5 | Joe Burrow | 762 | +0.086 |
Third down is where a pass play is worth the most and where coverage is at its most honest. Since 2015, among quarterbacks with 250 third-down pass plays, Purdy's +0.285 EPA per play is the best in football, a full window ahead of Mahomes at +0.247, with the rest of the qualifying field below +0.14. The gap between 2nd and 3rd place is bigger than the gap between 3rd and 15th.
Why it matters. Down-and-distance leverage is where quarterback skill is priced highest: a converted third down is worth roughly a full expected point more than an incompletion. Leading this table on a real sample means Purdy's efficiency is not built on easy first-down throws into soft coverage, it holds up in the one situation the defense knows the pass is coming.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT: the market prices Purdy in round 8. The file says he finishes top-12 in points per game.
The 2026 case, in four rows
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025 PPR per game | 19.7 (7th among QBs, min 8 games) |
| Career EPA per pass play | +0.218 (2nd since 1999) |
| SF offense EPA rank, 2025 | 6th, with its QB missing 8 games |
| 2026 draft price | ADP 89, round 8 |
QBs who scored 19+ a game in a 6-to-11-game season, 2010-2024: the next year
| Cohort | Result |
|---|---|
| Qualifying seasons | 14 |
| Top-12 in PPR/game the next season | 8 of 14 |
| Average next-season PPR/game | 18.5 |
| Examples | Rodgers 2013 to 22.1, Watson 2017 to 20.7, Jackson 2021 to 21.3 |
The gradeable call: Purdy finishes 2026 as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in points per game. He was already 7th per game in 2025 around the toe. History's cohort of short, high-scoring seasons carried a majority of its members straight back into the top 12, and the situation argument is stronger than the cohort: the 49ers fielded the No. 6 offense in football with their quarterback missing half the year, and now return him at full price for a round-8 pick.
Why it matters. The call is priced on the injury, not the player: nothing in Purdy's per-play file declined in 2025, he simply played nine games. When a top-3 efficiency quarterback in a top-6 offense costs a round-8 pick, the downside is the position's replacement level and the upside is the 2023 season. That asymmetry is the entire draft case.
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