Player

Dalton Kincaid

TE · Bills

Volume is the noisy number for a TE in Buffalo's QB-driven offense; the YPR and TD jump in 2025 signal that Allen is finally using Kincaid as a downfield seam target instead of an outlet.

FanIQ Research · May 10, 2026 · 6 facts, every one from the play-by-play

The yardage went down. The efficiency exploded.

Trend

Kincaid regular-season production by year

Year	G	Tgts	Rec	Yds	TDs	Y/Rec
2023	16	91	73	673	2	9.2
2024	13	75	44	448	2	10.2
2025	12	49	39	571	5	14.6

Yards per reception by year

Season	Y/Rec
2023	9.2
2024	10.2
2025	14.6

The headline numbers misled people on 2025. Targets dropped to 49 in 12 games — a career low rate. But the yards-per-reception jumped to 14.6, well above his rookie-year 9.2. Buffalo stopped using him as a check-down outlet and started feeding him further downfield.

The TD column tells the same story: 5 in 12 games in 2025 matched his combined total from his first two seasons (4 in 29 games).

Why it matters. Volume is the noisy number for a TE in Buffalo's QB-driven offense; the YPR and TD jump in 2025 signal that Allen is finally using Kincaid as a downfield seam target instead of an outlet.

His red-zone usage finally caught up with his draft slot.

Split

Kincaid red-zone targets (inside 20)

Year	RZ Tgts	Catches	RZ TDs	TD rate
2023	9	5	0	0%
2024	10	5	2	20%
2025	9	6	3	33%

As a rookie he saw 9 red-zone targets and scored zero TDs on them — one of the more talked-about disappointments of his 2023 season for a 1st-round TE. The volume hasn't really changed (9, 10, 9), but the conversion has: 0% → 20% → 33%.

The per-target value is what shifted, not the role.

Why it matters. Red-zone targets were a rookie-year sore spot for a TE drafted in the first round; a tripled TD-rate on a flat target diet means Buffalo finally trusts him to win contested goal-line throws instead of using him as a clearout.

In the 2023 TE class, he's still 2nd in receptions — just way behind LaPorta.

Comparison

2023 rookie TE class — career totals through 2025

Player	G	Rec	Yds	TDs
Sam LaPorta	42	186	2,104	20
Dalton Kincaid	41	156	1,692	9
Tucker Kraft	—	113	1,551	15
Brenton Strange	—	91	986	6
Michael Mayer	—	83	788	3
Luke Musgrave	—	65	649	1

LaPorta is the runaway winner of the class with 20 TDs and 2,104 yards. Kincaid sits second in receptions (156) and yards (1,692) but just 9 career TDs — fewer than Kraft (15) on far more targets.

The gap between Kincaid and LaPorta isn't volume — it's the goal-line role. LaPorta has been Detroit's primary red-zone weapon since day one. Kincaid wasn't given that role until 2025.

Why it matters. The 2023 TE class was billed as a generational group; ranking it by career receptions through 2025 shows the actual hierarchy, with LaPorta's TD volume (more than 2x Kincaid's) being the cleanest separator from the second tier.

His 2025 EPA/play is in another universe.

Anomaly

Kincaid EPA per target by year (REG)

Year	Tgts	Catches	Air Yds	YAC	EPA/play
2023	91	73	538	315	+0.138
2024	75	44	573	274	+0.197
2025	50	39	465	259	+0.788

2025 REG TE leaderboard - EPA per target (min 40 tgts)

Rank	Player	Tgts	EPA/play
1	Tucker Kraft	44	+0.889
2	Dalton Kincaid	50	+0.788
3	Sam LaPorta	49	+0.743
4	George Kittle	69	+0.671
5	Colston Loveland	83	+0.572
-	TE-position avg	3,980	+0.241

+0.788 EPA/play in 2025 is 2nd among all TEs with at least 40 targets, behind only Tucker Kraft. The position-wide TE average across 3,980 targets is +0.241 — Kincaid is running at roughly 3.3x the TE baseline.

The 2023 baseline was +0.138; the 2024 step was modest (+0.197). Lower volume, much higher leverage: every Kincaid target is now near-guaranteed to move the chains or score. That's the real story of his career arc — not the raw yardage decline.

Why it matters. EPA/play folds in down/distance/score state, so a sustained +0.788 over 50 targets means he's not just catching balls — he's catching the right ones at the right time. The TE-position baseline (+0.241) makes the gap concrete.

His career game came at age 25 — a perfect 6-for-6 against New England.

Milestone

Top single-game receiving yards

Date	Opp	Tgts	Rec	Yds	TDs
2025 W5	vs NE	6	6	108	0
2025 W9	vs KC	6	6	101	1
2023 W17	vs NE	7	4	87	0
2023 W18	vs MIA	8	7	84	0
2023 W9	vs CIN	11	10	81	0

Both of his 100-yard games have come in 2025, both on 6-of-6 perfect efficiency — against New England (W5) and Kansas City (W9). The KC game also included his first TD against an AFC contender.

For comparison, his rookie ceiling was 10 catches for 81 yards against Cincinnati — high volume, low yards-per-target. The 2025 profile is the inverse, and that's the version that matters in January.

Why it matters. A 6-of-6 line on 100+ yards is a rare TE box score — perfect catch rate with downfield yardage usually requires either tiny target counts or screen-heavy schemes. Both of his 100-yard games came in 2025 against playoff-caliber defenses (NE, KC).

Top-6 TE catch rate in 2025 — automatic on anything close.

Rare

2025 REG TE catch rate (min 40 targets)

Rank	Player	Tgts	Rec	Catch %
1	Noah Fant	41	34	82.9%
2	George Kittle	69	57	82.6%
3	Sam LaPorta	49	40	81.6%
4	Jake Ferguson	102	82	80.4%
5	Gunnar Helm	55	44	80.0%
6	Dalton Kincaid	49	39	79.6%
7	Dalton Schultz	106	82	77.4%

Kincaid catch rate by year (REG)

Year	Tgts	Rec	Catch %
2023	91	73	80.2%
2024	75	44	58.7%
2025	49	39	79.6%

Kincaid's 79.6% catch rate in 2025 is 6th among TEs with at least 40 targets, sitting just behind LaPorta (81.6%) and Kittle (82.6%). His career REG catch rate is 72.6% (156/215), dragged down by an injury-shortened 2024 (58.7%).

Strip 2024 and his catch rate is north of 79% in both healthy seasons. For a 1st-round TE that's the floor skill — he's an automatic completion when Allen looks his way.

Why it matters. Catch rate is the cleanest signal of QB trust and route precision; staying in the top tier of TEs (with Kittle, LaPorta) while playing on smaller volume than Schultz or McBride means Allen is throwing him almost exclusively winnable balls.

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