Player
Marvin Mims Jr.
WR
A WR going 1 → 6 → 1 in receiving TDs on roughly flat target volume is a red flag for role definition: the 2024 spike was concentrated in a short window, not a sustained ascent. Mims is still a downfield specialist on a team that distributes through Sutton and the run game.
3-year career: 1 TD as a rookie, 6 TDs in 2024, back to 1 receiving TD in 2025 as the WR2 role contracted.
TrendMims regular-season production by year
| Year | G | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Rec TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 (rookie) | 16 | 33 | 22 | 377 | 1 |
| 2024 | 17 | 52 | 39 | 503 | 6 |
| 2025 | 15 | 51 | 37 | 322 | 1 |
Receiving yards by year (REG)
| Season | Yards |
|---|---|
| 2023 | 377 |
| 2024 | 503 |
| 2025 | 322 |
Why it matters. A WR going 1 → 6 → 1 in receiving TDs on roughly flat target volume is a red flag for role definition: the 2024 spike was concentrated in a short window, not a sustained ascent. Mims is still a downfield specialist on a team that distributes through Sutton and the run game.
Career regular-season line: 98 catches, 1,202 yards, 8 TDs across 48 games — a WR3 stat sheet.
SplitCareer regular-season totals through 2025
| Stat | Total |
|---|---|
| Games | 48 |
| Receptions | 98 |
| Receiving Yards | 1,202 |
| Receiving TDs | 8 |
| Y/R | 12.27 |
| Y/G | 25.0 |
Why it matters. Career rate stats anchor expectations. 25 yards per game is rotational production, not a featured role — useful context when assessing fantasy or contract trajectory. The career YPR is also a corrective to the assumption that all deep-threat WRs post elite YPR.
Mims had 0 receiving TDs through 10 games of 2024, then 6 TDs in the next 7 games.
AnomalyMims 2024 first half vs second half (REG)
| Span | G | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Rec TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wks 1-10 | 10 | 19 | 11 | 69 | 0 |
| Wks 11-18 | 7 | 33 | 28 | 434 | 6 |
Why it matters. This is the single most informative pattern in Mims's career: his 'breakout 2024' was really a 7-game stretch, not a 17-game body of work. The 2025 regression to 1 receiving TD on similar volume looks less like a fluke and more like reversion to the season-long mean.
As a rookie, Mims averaged 17.1 yards per catch on a 15.1 aDOT — top-3 deepest aDOT among the entire 2023 WR draft class.
Rare2023 rookie WR draft class — aDOT and YPR (REG, min 25 targets)
| Player | Tgt | aDOT | YPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jalin Hyatt | 40 | 21.02 | 16.22 |
| Tre Tucker | 34 | 18.35 | 17.42 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 33 | 15.06 | 17.14 |
| Tank Dell | 75 | 14.27 | 15.09 |
| Quentin Johnston | 67 | 12.85 | 11.34 |
| Jordan Addison | 108 | 12.47 | 13.01 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 93 | 6.12 | 9.97 |
| Puka Nacua | 160 | 9.08 | 14.15 |
Why it matters. aDOT (air yards per target) reveals how a WR is being USED, separate from how productive he was. A 15+ aDOT in 2023 placed Mims with Jalin Hyatt and Tre Tucker — burners, not possession receivers. Understanding this role explains why his catch rate has stayed modest and why role contraction hits him harder than it would a slot receiver.
Two playoff appearances in three seasons — including a starting role in DEN's 2025 run to the AFC Championship.
SplitMims postseason games
| Year | Round | Opp | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | WC (L) | BUF | 4 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| 2025 | DIV (W) | BUF | 8 | 8 | 93 | 1 |
| 2025 | CON (L) | NE | 6 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
Why it matters. Playoff usage tells you what a coach actually trusts. Mims's target share climbed from 19.0% in the DIV round to 22.2% in the CON — the highest single-game target share of his entire career. The role is real when the pressure rises.
Mims is a perfect 16-for-16 on receptions in his only two 8-target games — both blew up for 90+ yards.
RareMims career games with 8+ targets
| Date | Opp | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Wk 17 | CIN | 8 | 8 | 103 | 2 |
| 2025 DIV | BUF | 8 | 8 | 93 | 1 |
Why it matters. This is the case for opportunity, not talent regression. Mims's career sample of high-volume games is tiny (n=2), but in both he was the most efficient pass-catcher on the field. The 2025 1-TD season may reflect a target ceiling more than a ceiling on what he can do with targets when given them.
FanIQ answers any NFL stats question with receipts, on your phone.
Get FanIQ freeGet it on Google Play