Player
Josh Downs
WR · Colts
Target share is the cleanest read on a WR's role; a 26% peak shows Downs has flashed alpha usage when injuries thinned the room, while the 17-18% bracket reflects his true #2/slot baseline.
In 2024 he was Indianapolis' #1 target — a 26% target share.
TrendDowns regular-season production
| Year | G | Tgts | Rec | Yds | TDs | Tgt % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | 98 | 68 | 771 | 2 | 17.3% |
| 2024 | 14 | 107 | 72 | 803 | 5 | 26.1% |
| 2025 | 16 | 88 | 58 | 566 | 4 | 17.5% |
Target share by season
| Season | Target share |
|---|---|
| 2023 | 17.3 |
| 2024 | 26.1 |
| 2025 | 17.5 |
For a brief moment in 2024, Downs ran a 26.1% target share — the kind of number that puts a slot WR alongside the league's clear #1s (Jefferson, Chase, Lamb all live in the 28-31% range). On 14 games he ran up 107 targets despite never starting outside.
2023 and 2025 settled around the 17-18% range — true #2 territory, not a true alpha. The 2024 number was the Anthony Richardson-injury/Pittman-injury bump, not the new baseline.
Why it matters. Target share is the cleanest read on a WR's role; a 26% peak shows Downs has flashed alpha usage when injuries thinned the room, while the 17-18% bracket reflects his true #2/slot baseline.
He thrives on 3rd down — 20 first downs on 38 targets in 2025.
SplitDowns target/conversion by down (career)
| Year | 3rd-Down Tgts | Catches | 1st Downs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 32 | 20 | 14 |
| 2024 | 35 | 20 | 16 |
| 2025 | 38 | 21 | 20 |
His 2025 3rd-down line: 38 targets, 21 catches, 20 first downs — a 95% conversion rate when he catches it. That's how Indianapolis has used him from day one: drag routes, slot mismatches, sit-down routes against zone.
The 3rd-down target share went up every year of his career: 32 → 35 → 38. The Colts trust him in the biggest moments more than any other receiver.
Why it matters. Third-down targets are the highest-leverage looks a WR sees; converting 20 of 21 catches into first downs in 2025 means he's almost always moving the chains when he's thrown to on third down.
In the 2023 rookie WR class, Downs is 5th in receptions and 6th in yards — as a 3rd-round pick.
Comparison2023 rookie WR class — rookie-year totals
| Player | Rec | Yds | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 114 | 1,667 | 7 |
| Rashee Rice | 105 | 1,200 | 8 |
| Zay Flowers | 86 | 1,014 | 6 |
| Jordan Addison | 70 | 911 | 10 |
| Jayden Reed | 68 | 828 | 8 |
| Josh Downs | 68 | 771 | 2 |
| Tank Dell | 47 | 709 | 7 |
Downs was a 3rd-round pick (No. 79) in 2023, taken after Addison (No. 23), Flowers (No. 22), and Smith-Njigba (No. 20). His 68-771-2 rookie line tied Reed in receptions and finished within shouting distance of Addison and Flowers — all first-rounders.
Three years in, his 2,140 career receiving yards put him behind Nacua, Rice, and Flowers, but on top of the group of slot WRs from the same class. Solid 3rd-round value, not a draft steal.
Why it matters. Draft capital sets expectations; a 3rd-rounder finishing top-6 in receptions among his class — and ahead of multiple 1st-rounders — beats the slot they took him in.
He lives in the short zone — 75% of his targets come under 10 air yards.
SplitDowns targets by air-yards depth (career)
| Depth | Tgts | Catches | Yds | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Short (<10) | 220 | 157 | 1,189 | 9 |
| Mid (10-19) | 43 | 28 | 505 | 2 |
| Deep (20+) | 30 | 13 | 427 | 2 |
220 of his 293 career targets — 75% — have come within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. The catch rate on those (71%) is high but the yardage profile is pure slot WR: ~7.6 Y/Rec on short throws.
His deep-target numbers are quietly excellent: 13-of-30 (43%) for 427 yards and 2 TDs — a 14.2 Y/T average. Indianapolis just doesn't lean on him vertically.
Why it matters. Air-yards mix tells you the route tree; 75% of looks inside the sticks means Downs is a designed-touch slot WR, not a field-stretcher — even though his deep efficiency hints he could be more.
Just two career 100-yard games — and none in 2025.
MilestoneTop single-game receiving performances
| Date | Opp | Tgts | Rec | Yds | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 W7 | vs CLE | 6 | 5 | 125 | 1 |
| 2024 W8 | vs HOU | 9 | 4 | 109 | 1 |
| 2023 W5 | vs TEN | 6 | 6 | 97 | 0 |
| 2024 W18 | vs JAX | 13 | 10 | 94 | 0 |
| 2024 W11 | vs NYJ | 5 | 5 | 84 | 1 |
His 2023 Week 7 vs Cleveland: 125 yards and a TD on 5 catches — a rookie statement game against a top-5 defense. His 2024 Week 8 vs Houston (109 yards, 1 TD) is the only other career 100-yard outing.
The story of 2025: zero career-best games despite a healthier year than 2024. His top 2025 outing is just 65 yards (Week 16 at SF). The role has narrowed back to chain-mover — high-floor, low-ceiling.
Why it matters. 100-yard games are the cleanest proxy for 'game-script alpha'; back-to-back zero in 2025 confirms Downs is being used as a possession piece, not a featured WR.
His 3rd-down rate keeps climbing as his target share comes back to earth.
AnomalyDowns 3rd-down share of total targets
| Year | 3rd-Down Tgts | All Tgts | % on 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 32 | 98 | 32.7% |
| 2024 | 35 | 107 | 32.7% |
| 2025 | 38 | 88 | 43.2% |
In 2025, 43% of every target Downs sees is on 3rd down — that's a specialized role. The overall volume dropped (107 → 88), but the 3rd-down absolute number went up (35 → 38).
Indianapolis is using him explicitly as a chain-mover in the most critical situations. That's a different — and more durable — role than 'volume slot.'
Why it matters. Specialization vs volume tells you how a team values a player — 43% of Downs' 2025 targets coming on 3rd down means Indianapolis is conserving him for the highest-leverage snap rather than feeding him on early downs.
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