Player
Tyler Warren
TE · Colts
Instant target volume for a rookie TE signals offensive-scheme intent, not just talent — the Colts treated Warren as their primary pass-catcher from Week 1, a commitment that typically predicts sustained workload into Year 2.
Stat line opened at 7-76-0 and 4-79-0 — the Colts handed him a starting target share from Day 1.
TrendWarren's 2025 season by game (all 17 regular-season games)
| Wk | Opp | Tgts | Rec | Yds | TDs | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 9 | 7 | 76 | 0 | 14.9 |
| 2 | DEN | 7 | 4 | 79 | 0 | 11.9 |
| 3 | TEN | 5 | 3 | 38 | 0 | 6.8 |
| 4 | LA | 6 | 5 | 70 | 0 | 18.3 |
| 5 | LV | 4 | 4 | 44 | 1 | 14.4 |
| 6 | ARI | 9 | 6 | 63 | 1 | 18.3 |
| 7 | LAC | 5 | 4 | 69 | 1 | 16.9 |
| 8 | TEN | 5 | 4 | 53 | 0 | 9.3 |
| 9 | PIT | 7 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 7.6 |
| 10 | ATL | 10 | 8 | 99 | 0 | 17.9 |
| 12 | KC | 7 | 5 | 45 | 0 | 9.5 |
| 13 | HOU | 4 | 3 | 22 | 1 | 11.2 |
| 14 | JAX | 6 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 3.7 |
| 15 | SEA | 6 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 4.9 |
| 16 | SF | 9 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 6.0 |
| 17 | JAX | 5 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 9.3 |
| 18 | HOU | 8 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 7.6 |
Targets per game
| Week | Targets |
|---|---|
| W1 | 9 |
| W2 | 7 |
| W3 | 5 |
| W4 | 6 |
| W5 | 4 |
| W6 | 9 |
| W7 | 5 |
| W8 | 5 |
| W9 | 7 |
| W10 | 10 |
| W12 | 7 |
| W13 | 4 |
| W14 | 6 |
| W15 | 6 |
| W16 | 9 |
| W17 | 5 |
| W18 | 8 |
He was targeted 9 times in his NFL debut (7 catches, 76 yards) — that's a starting-TE target share before he played a single snap. He hit 6+ targets in 11 of 17 games, which is the volume threshold most second-year TEs aim for.
The ceiling game was Week 10 at Atlanta: 10 targets, 8 catches, 99 yards — closest he came to a 100-yard rookie game. He never had a zero-target game all season. Across the 17 regular-season starts: 112 targets, 76 catches, 817 yards, 4 receiving TDs, 1 rushing TD.
Why it matters. Instant target volume for a rookie TE signals offensive-scheme intent, not just talent — the Colts treated Warren as their primary pass-catcher from Week 1, a commitment that typically predicts sustained workload into Year 2.
#1 in targets AND receiving yards among all 2025 rookie TEs in the regular season.
Rare2025 rookie TE class — regular-season production (weeks 1–18)
| Player | Tgts | Rec | Yds | TDs | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Warren | 112 | 76 | 817 | 4 | 188.5 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 107 | 72 | 731 | 6 | 186.4 |
| Colston Loveland | 82 | 58 | 713 | 6 | 165.1 |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 69 | 49 | 664 | 3 | 131.4 |
| Mason Taylor | 65 | 44 | 369 | 1 | 88.9 |
112 targets is more than every other rookie TE in the 2025 class through the regular season — and his 817 receiving yards also lead the class. Colston Loveland (Bears) played two additional playoff games and finished with 906 yards for the full year, but on a regular-season-only basis Warren tops the rookie TE group in both targets and yards.
Harold Fannin Jr. (Browns) ran him close with 107 targets and 731 yards — the three-way race between Warren, Fannin, and Loveland produced the deepest rookie TE class in recent memory. Warren's edge: pure usage. He saw the ball on a higher percentage of Colts pass plays than any other rookie TE drew from their offense.
Why it matters. Target volume is the single most predictive year-1 signal for TE breakout seasons — Warren leading the entire 2025 rookie TE class in targets in his first season is the same trajectory Jason Witten, Travis Kelce, and Mark Andrews posted before their first Pro Bowl years.
In the red zone he's a 17% TD-per-target weapon — but the catch rate halves.
SplitWarren 2025 receiving splits by field area (plays table, wks 1–18)
| Zone | Targets | Catches | Yds | TDs | Catch % | TD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outside Red Zone | 91 | 65 | 752 | 0 | 71.4% | 0.0% |
| Red Zone (≤20) | 23 | 11 | 65 | 4 | 47.8% | 17.4% |
All 4 of his receiving TDs came inside the 20: on just 23 red-zone targets — a 17.4% TD-per-target rate in that area.
The catch rate drops from 71% outside the RZ to 48% inside it — contested-catch volume rises, routes compress, and the Colts QB rotation didn't always put the ball where he could win. He has the body type (6'6", 261 lbs) to become a top-3 RZ TE; the conversion rate is the gap between Year 1 production and Year 2 upside. Warren also added 1 rushing TD on a goal-line carry (Week 4 vs LA), giving him 5 total touchdowns for the season.
Why it matters. The RZ catch-rate dip isn't unusual for big rookie TEs — it reflects scheme (more contested jump balls, tighter windows) rather than a skill deficit. If Warren converts at the class-average rate for high-volume TEs (~30% RZ TD rate), he projects to 7 TDs on similar usage next season.
Lower aDOT than Loveland — by 3.7 yards. Same draft class, completely different route trees.
ComparisonWarren vs Loveland — air-yards profile (regular season, plays table)
| Player | Avg Air Yds | Deep Tgts (15+ AY) | Total Tgts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Warren | 5.4 | 13 | 112 |
| Colston Loveland | 9.1 | 18 | 82 |
Same draft class, same first-round TE billing, wildly different routes. Loveland's average target traveled 9.1 air yards; Warren's only 5.4 — a 3.7-yard gap on every single target.
That's the Colts vs. Bears scheme split — Warren is being deployed as a checkdown-and-seam guy off play action, while Loveland is the downfield Y. Warren's 5 fewer deep targets (15+ air yards) and shorter average depth explains why his YPR (10.75) trails Loveland's regular-season YPR (12.29) despite Warren's higher catch volume. The aDOT gap also caps Warren's upside in big-play production — unless the Colts expand his route tree in Year 2.
Why it matters. aDOT is the clearest signal of how a coaching staff is using a TE — shallow aDOT is scheme, not ceiling. Warren's 5.4 average puts him in the same bucket as prime Travis Kelce in heavy West-Coast offenses, where volume and YAC make up for the compressed routes. The scheme question is whether Indianapolis unlocks the deeper tree in Year 2.
4 RZ TDs on 23 looks — but McBride had 11, and Goedert had 10, on comparable or fewer targets.
Anomaly2025 TE red-zone TDs leaderboard (regular season, plays table)
| Player | RZ Tgts | RZ TDs | TD% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | 34 | 11 | 32.4% |
| Dallas Goedert | 15 | 10 | 66.7% |
| Jake Ferguson | 25 | 7 | 28.0% |
| Brock Bowers | 18 | 6 | 33.3% |
| Colby Parkinson | 22 | 6 | 27.3% |
| George Kittle | 13 | 6 | 46.2% |
| Tyler Warren | 23 | 4 | 17.4% |
Warren ranks 3rd in RZ targets among all TEs in 2025 (23), behind only Trey McBride (34) and Jake Ferguson (25) — so this isn't a usage problem. The gap is conversion: Warren converted 17.4% of his RZ targets into TDs while Goedert hit 66.7% on 15 looks and McBride hit 32.4% on 34.
The template is there (volume, body type, scheme priority) — the conversion rate is the gap between Year 1 production and Year 2 upside. If Warren just reaches the top-7 TE average of ~35% RZ TD rate on the same 23 looks, that's 8 TDs from the RZ alone.
Why it matters. Red-zone TD conversion separates TE1s from TE1B options in fantasy and in game-planning — Goedert's 66.7% rate shows what elite hands + QB trust looks like. Warren's 17.4% reflects the Colts' QB situation and his contested-catch development arc, both correctable factors heading into Year 2.
5 of his first 7 games went for 60+ yards — that's a TE1 floor right out of the gate.
MilestoneGames of 60+ receiving yards by 2025 rookie TEs (regular season, wks 1–18)
| Player | 60+ Yd Games | Total Games |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Warren | 6 | 17 |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 5 | 15 |
| Colston Loveland | 4 | 16 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 4 | 16 |
6 games of 60+ receiving yards as a rookie TE is the most in the 2025 class — and 5 of those games came in his first 7 weeks (Weeks 1, 2, 4, 6, 7). That's the trajectory of a Day-1 starter, not a developmental TE.
The season-long floor was the story more than the ceiling. He never had a zero-target game all season, and his floor (Week 14 at Jacksonville: 6 targets, 2 catches, 15 yards) was still on-the-field and in-the-flow. The 6 sixty-plus-yard games beat every other 2025 rookie TE — Gadsden II had 5, Loveland and Fannin each had 4.
Why it matters. A 60-yard game requires both volume AND efficiency — you can't stumble into 6 of them as a rookie without consistent scheme involvement. Five of those games arriving in the first seven weeks signals the Colts made Warren a permanent offensive fixture before the season was two months old.
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