Player
Tyler Shough
QB · NO Saints
A rookie split this sharp usually means the game slowed down, not that the schedule softened: the two stretches are nearly identical in volume, so the improvement is per-play, not per-opportunity. The December version was a legitimate mid-pack NFL starter. The open question for 2026 is which of the two samples is the real baseline, and 191 dropbacks is not enough to settle it.
The December takeover
Same rookie, two seasons: minus 0.127 EPA per dropback through Week 13, plus 0.113 after.
TrendShough 2025 by stretch (regular season)
| Stretch | Dropbacks | EPA per dropback | PPR pts per game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3-13 | 188 | -0.127 | 9.6 |
| Wk 14-18 | 191 | +0.113 | 20.0 |
Through Week 13, Shough looked like a typical overwhelmed rookie: -0.127 EPA per dropback. From Week 14 on he was a different player: +0.113, on an identical workload. The fantasy line moved with it, from 9.6 to 20.0 PPR points per game. He was also calm when it counted: in one-score games inside the final 15 minutes he averaged +0.13 EPA per play (57 plays), tenth among all QBs with 40 or more such snaps in 2025.
Why it matters. A rookie split this sharp usually means the game slowed down, not that the schedule softened: the two stretches are nearly identical in volume, so the improvement is per-play, not per-opportunity. The December version was a legitimate mid-pack NFL starter. The open question for 2026 is which of the two samples is the real baseline, and 191 dropbacks is not enough to settle it.
An 18-points-a-game offense scored 24.8 once Shough took the finishing stretch.
AnomalySaints scoring, 2025 regular season
| Stretch | Points per game | Games with 20+ |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 1-13 | 15.2 | 2 of 12 |
| Wk 14-18 | 24.8 | 4 of 5 |
New Orleans averaged 15.2 points through Week 13 and cleared 20 just twice in twelve games. Over the final five weeks, with Shough surging, the same roster scored 24.8 a game and hit 20+ in four of five. The season average of 18.0 hides two completely different offenses.
Why it matters. Twenty points a game is roughly the line between an offense that can win a normal NFL week and one that cannot, and the Saints lived under it until the quarterback play changed. That the jump came without a personnel overhaul points the causal arrow at the position. If the December offense is closer to the truth, everything attached to it, including Shough's own scoring, reprices upward.
Second in rookie-class efficiency, 39 picks after the class's first quarterback went No. 1 overall.
Comparison2025 rookie QBs, 150+ dropbacks (regular season)
| QB | Pick | Dropbacks | EPA per dropback | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart | 25 | 376 | -0.022 | 5 |
| Tyler Shough | 40 | 359 | -0.029 | 6 |
| Cam Ward | 1 | 595 | -0.190 | 7 |
| Dillon Gabriel | 94 | 205 | -0.219 | 2 |
| Shedeur Sanders | 144 | 235 | -0.299 | 10 |
Five 2025 rookie quarterbacks logged 150+ dropbacks. Shough's -0.029 EPA per dropback ranked second, a rounding error behind first-rounder Jaxson Dart and far ahead of No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward at -0.190. The draft spent five times the capital on Ward that it spent on Shough; the field disagreed.
Why it matters. Rookie-year EPA is noisy, but rank within a shared class controls for the year's conditions better than any raw number. Landing within 0.007 of the class leader while playing behind the league's worst-scoring offense for most of the year is the strongest argument that the Saints found a starter at pick 40. It also means his December was not a fluke stretch inside an otherwise broken season; the full-season baseline was already class-competitive.
The sack tax and the old-rookie file
Myth test: the 31 sacks were the Saints' line's fault.
Sack rate behind the same 2025 Saints line
| QB | Dropbacks | Sacks | Sack rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Rattler | 275 | 18 | 6.5% |
| Tyler Shough | 359 | 31 | 8.6% |
| League average, 2025 | 6.8% |
Same line, same season, two quarterbacks. Rattler took sacks on 6.5% of dropbacks, a touch better than the league's 6.8%. Shough took them on 8.6%. The protection graded out roughly average when someone else was holding the ball. History is blunt about what that means: sack rate follows the quarterback, not the blockers, and Shough's got worse down the stretch (7.4% before Week 14, 8.9% after) even as everything else improved.
Why it matters. This is the one blemish that did not improve while everything else did, and the research says it usually travels with the player: pocket clock, escape choices, and the willingness to throw a ball away are stable traits. A 2-point sack-rate tax on 550+ dropbacks is roughly 12 extra sacks a season, each one a drive-killer and a hit. It is the specific thing to watch in 2026, because the rest of his profile no longer needs excuses.
One of four: quarterbacks drafted in the first three rounds at age 25 or older since 1999.
RareQBs taken in rounds 1-3 at 25+ on Sept 1 of draft year, 1999-2025
| QB | Class | Pick | Age at draft season |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Weeden | 2012 | 22 | 28.9 |
| John Beck | 2007 | 40 | 26.0 |
| Tyler Shough | 2025 | 40 | 25.9 |
| Hendon Hooker | 2023 | 68 | 25.6 |
In 27 draft classes, exactly four quarterbacks have gone in the first three rounds at 25 or older. Shough is one, and in a strange rhyme, John Beck went at the very same slot, pick 40, eighteen years earlier. Seven college seasons across three schools made Shough the oldest rookie starter of his class, and the history of his cohort, Weeden, Beck, Hooker, offers no success story yet.
Why it matters. Age at entry is priced information the pick number hides: research on day-2 picks finds the younger prospect at the same slot outproduces the older one over his first three seasons, because young production implies development still ahead. Shough starts that clock at nearly 26, so his path has less runway than a normal second-rounder's, and the December flash needs to convert to a real starting season quickly to beat his cohort's track record.
When the play broke, he was excellent. When the run was called, he wasn't.
SplitShough runs, 2025 regular season (kneels excluded)
| Run type | Carries | Yards | TD | First downs | EPA per carry |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrambles | 20 | 125 | 2 | 8 | +0.409 |
| Designed keeps | 19 | 74 | 1 | 6 | -0.009 |
Shough's 20 scrambles produced 125 yards, 2 scores, and +0.409 EPA per carry, off-script value that only exists because coverage broke down. His 19 designed keeps were a wash at -0.009. The designed game did work where it is supposed to: on third or fourth down with 2 or fewer to go, his called keeps converted 3 of 4.
Why it matters. League-wide, this exact split is the norm rather than a quirk: scrambles carry big positive value because they punish abandoned coverage, while called early-down keeps are ordinary plays. What matters for Shough is that the scramble value confirms real functional athleticism at 6-foot-5, an escape dimension his age and injury history had cast doubt on, and the short-yardage keep gives the Saints a legitimate money-down tool.
What pick 135 buys in 2026
333 yards on 22 of 27. Only nine games in 2025 hit 300 yards at an 80% completion rate, and one belonged to a rookie.
Rare300+ passing yards on 80%+ completions, 2025 regular season (top 5 by comp %)
| QB | Week | Line | Yards | Comp % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 5 | 29/33 | 379 | 87.9 |
| Sam Darnold | 9 | 21/24 | 330 | 87.5 |
| Mac Jones | 10 | 33/39 | 319 | 84.6 |
| Jalen Hurts | 7 | 19/23 | 326 | 82.6 |
| Tyler Shough | 17 | 22/27 | 333 | 81.5 |
Across the whole 2025 regular season, only nine quarterback games combined 300+ passing yards with an 80%+ completion rate (minimum 20 attempts). Eight came from veterans. The ninth was Shough's Week 17 against Tennessee: 22 of 27 for 333 yards and 2 scores, the most efficient high-volume game any rookie produced all year.
Why it matters. Yardage games happen; hyper-accurate yardage games are rare because 300 yards usually requires volume, and volume erodes completion rate. Doing both at once is the signature of a passer taking what the defense concedes and still generating chunks, which is precisely the skill scouts doubted in a sixth-year college arm. One game proves capacity, not consistency, but capacity was the question.
Five straight closing weeks of 17+ fantasy points, priced in the 12th round.
What to watchShough, final five weeks of 2025 (PPR)
| Week | Pass yds | Total TD | PPR pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 144 | 2 | 21.3 |
| 15 | 272 | 1 | 18.1 |
| 16 | 308 | 1 | 17.1 |
| 17 | 333 | 2 | 21.9 |
| 18 | 259 | 2 | 21.8 |
From Week 14 on, Shough never scored fewer than 17.1 PPR points, a five-week run of weekly-starter production that included three 259+ yard passing games and points from his legs in three of the five. Fantasy drafters currently pay a 135 ADP, pick 12.03, for it. Nobody drafted in round 12 is expected to start; this one closed the season looking like someone who could.
Why it matters. Late-round quarterback is a strategy that lives on exactly this profile: a starter whose price reflects his September reputation rather than his December play. The five-week streak is a small sample and the forecast card on this run urges discounting it, but the asymmetry is the point: at pick 135 the downside is a wasted bench spot, while the upside is the December version at a 95% discount to the QBs drafted in round 3.
FanIQ answers any NFL stats question with receipts, on your phone.
Get FanIQ freeGet it on Google Play