Team
Atlanta Falcons
NFC South
A losing streak this shape is its own trap: never bad enough to reset, never good enough to matter. The five straight 7-and-8-win seasons mean Atlanta has drafted in the middle, sold hope every September, and delivered the same January silence every year. What history says about long non-winning runs is blunt: the cellar always has occupants, but they rotate, and the exit usually comes faster than fans fear. Atlanta is now well past the usual exit window.
Stuck at 8 wins
Eight straight seasons without a winning record. In the whole NFL, only the Jets have been waiting longer.
TrendFalcons by season, 2018-2025 (regular season)
| Season | Record |
|---|---|
| 2018 | 7-9 |
| 2019 | 7-9 |
| 2020 | 4-12 |
| 2021 | 7-10 |
| 2022 | 7-10 |
| 2023 | 7-10 |
| 2024 | 8-9 |
| 2025 | 8-9 |
Longest active waits for a winning season, through 2025
| Team | Last winning season | Seasons since |
|---|---|---|
| NYJ | 2015 | 10 |
| ATL | 2017 | 8 |
| CAR | 2017 | 8 |
| ARI | 2021 | 4 |
| LV | 2021 | 4 |
| TEN | 2021 | 4 |
Atlanta's last winning season and last playoff trip both came in 2017. Since then: eight straight seasons at .500 or below, including five in a row at exactly 7 or 8 wins. They never bottomed out into a top-3 draft slot and never broke through, the most stubborn stretch of in-between football in the league. Only the Jets, at ten seasons and counting, have a longer active wait.
Why it matters. A losing streak this shape is its own trap: never bad enough to reset, never good enough to matter. The five straight 7-and-8-win seasons mean Atlanta has drafted in the middle, sold hope every September, and delivered the same January silence every year. What history says about long non-winning runs is blunt: the cellar always has occupants, but they rotate, and the exit usually comes faster than fans fear. Atlanta is now well past the usual exit window.
The pass rush is fixed? Atlanta jumped from 31st to 4th in sack rate in one season. History says most of that jump gets handed back.
ATL defensive sack rate by season (regular season)
| Season | Sack rate | NFL rank |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3.0% | 32nd |
| 2022 | 3.6% | 32nd |
| 2023 | 7.1% | 19th |
| 2024 | 5.1% | 31st |
| 2025 | 9.7% | 4th |
Defenses that jumped from 25th-or-worse to top-5 in sack rate, 1999-2024
| Cohort | Teams | Next season |
|---|---|---|
| Jumped 25th+ to top-5 | 22 | avg rank 16.5; only 8 of 22 stayed top-10 |
For years the Falcons could not touch the quarterback: dead last in sack rate in 2021 and 2022, 31st as recently as 2024. Then 2025 happened: 9.7% of opposing dropbacks ended in a sack, 4th in the NFL. Before penciling that in for 2026, look at the 22 defenses since 1999 that made the same leap from 25th-or-worse into the top 5: the next year they averaged a 16.5th-place finish, and only 8 of the 22 stayed in the top 10. Sack totals are the flashiest defensive stat and the least likely to repeat.
Why it matters. MYTH TEST: the folklore says a breakout sack season announces a new identity. The data says sack rate is the flimsiest defensive signature there is, driven by matchups, script, and a handful of splash games. There is real nuance here: a team's sack rate does carry some year-to-year signal, so the 2025 rush is not a mirage, but the specific top-5 finish is the part history keeps taking back. Expect a good rush, not a 4th-ranked one.
History's call for 2026: more of the middle. Expect Atlanta somewhere between 6 and 10 wins, again.
ATL 2025 profile (regular season)
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Record | 8-9 |
| Point differential | -48 |
| Expected wins from points | 7.2 |
| One-score games | 5-5 |
| Games decided by 9+ | 3-4 |
How far teams move the following season, 1999-2024
| This season's finish | Team-seasons | Avg move next season |
|---|---|---|
| Within about 1.5 wins of .500 | 298 | 2.5 wins |
| In between | 290 | 3.0 wins |
| 4+ wins from .500 | 241 | 3.8 wins |
The idea that an 8-9 team is coiled to break hard in either direction gets the standings backwards. Since 1999, teams finishing within about 1.5 wins of .500 moved an average of just 2.5 wins the following season, the smallest swing of any group; the wild jumps belong to the extremes snapping back. Atlanta's 2025 was the definition of the middle: 8-9 with a -48 point differential, 7.2 expected wins, and a 5-5 record in the close ones. Nothing in the profile argues for a leap. The gradeable call: Atlanta finishes 2026 between 6 and 10 wins.
Why it matters. WHAT HAPPENS NEXT: middle-of-the-pack teams sit where the league's gravity already pulls everyone, so they move less than anyone else year over year. Atlanta has now finished with 7 or 8 wins five seasons running, the purest expression of that gravity in football. The points, the close-game ledger, and the differential all agree with the record, which means there is no hidden luck to unwind in either direction.
How the Falcons play
Nobody lines up heavy like Atlanta, and nobody gets less out of it. The most extra-blocker snaps in football, at a loss on both the run and the pass.
SplitHeaviest-personnel offenses, 2023-2025 (share of snaps with 2+ TEs or 2+ RBs)
| Rank | Team | Heavy share | Heavy-set pass EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 46.5% | -0.030 |
| 2 | ARI | 43.1% | +0.090 |
| 3 | KC | 42.2% | +0.074 |
| 4 | PIT | 41.8% | -0.068 |
| 5 | NE | 39.6% | -0.072 |
ATL out of heavy personnel, 2023-2025
| Play call | Snaps | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|
| Pass | 728 | -0.030 |
| Run | 755 | -0.079 |
Atlanta plays with an extra tight end or running back on 46.5% of its snaps, the highest rate in the NFL over 2023-2025. The league-wide cheat code from those looks is the pass: the defense loads up for the run and the throw sails over it. Atlanta splits its heavy snaps almost evenly, 755 runs to 728 passes, even though its own passes from heavy sets outperform its runs by 0.049 EPA per play. And unlike Arizona and Kansas City, who mine real value from the same looks, Atlanta loses ground either way.
Why it matters. Personnel is a pre-snap tell, and Atlanta's tell says run more loudly and more often than anyone's. The heavy-look pass premium exists precisely because defenses believe the tell, which makes the even run-pass split from those groupings a standing donation: they buy the loaded box and then run into it anyway. This is a play-calling edge sitting in plain sight on their own film.
Atlanta runs the ball like a power team and gets nothing for it. 5th in the NFL in run rate, 19th in run efficiency.
AnomalyRun rate vs run efficiency, 2023-2025 (regular season)
| Metric | ATL | NFL rank |
|---|---|---|
| Run-play share | 45.8% | 5th |
| Neutral-script run rate | 50.9% | 9th |
| Rush EPA/play | -0.045 | 19th |
| Rush success rate | 42.4% | below avg |
Most run-heavy offenses, 2023-2025, with their rush EPA
| Team | Run % | Rush EPA | Rush EPA rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 51.0% | +0.083 | 2nd |
| PHI | 49.0% | +0.057 | 4th |
| BUF | 46.9% | +0.107 | 1st |
| GB | 46.5% | -0.008 | 11th |
| ATL | 45.8% | -0.045 | 19th |
Atlanta commits to the run more than all but four teams (45.8% of all plays, 9th in neutral situations), the profile of a team that wants to grind clock and impose its will. The other run-heavy offenses convert that commitment: Baltimore, Philadelphia and Buffalo all sit top-4 in rush EPA. Atlanta sits 19th at -0.045 EPA per carry. They run the most and gain the least of the bunch.
Why it matters. A run-first identity only works if the runs actually move the offense forward; otherwise it is just predictable. Atlanta keeps feeding a ground game that grades out as roughly league-average, which puts the offense behind the chains and into the obvious passing downs where the broken deep game cannot bail it out. The talent is real, the scheme leverage is not.
Atlanta wins first down and still loses third down. The 8th-best early-down offense owns the 3rd-worst conversion rate in football.
AnomalyATL 2025: early downs vs third down (regular season)
| Measure | Value | NFL rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA/play on downs 1-2 | +0.068 | 8th |
| Avg yards to go on 3rd down | 6.61 | 6th shortest |
| 3rd-down conversion rate | 34.1% | 30th |
Best early-down offenses of 2025, and how their 3rd downs went
| Rank (early downs) | Team | Early-down EPA | 3rd-down conv % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | +0.167 | 41.0% |
| 2 | NE | +0.132 | 43.6% |
| 3 | BUF | +0.120 | 46.3% |
| 4 | DET | +0.103 | 39.0% |
| 5 | DAL | +0.088 | 42.9% |
| 8 | ATL | +0.068 | 34.1% |
Third downs are usually won on first down: teams that gain early rarely face long, hard third downs. Atlanta did the early work in 2025, ranking 8th in EPA per play on downs 1 and 2 and setting up the 6th-shortest average third down in the league (6.61 yards to go). Then it converted just 34.1% of them, 30th in football, while every other top-8 early-down offense converted at 39% or better. The setup was elite; the finish was broken.
Why it matters. For most bad third-down teams the fix is upstream, on first and second down. Atlanta is the rare team where the third down itself is the problem: short distances, good field position, and still no conversion. That points the blame at the money-down dropback game, the same unit that shows up in the deep-ball numbers, rather than at the run-first foundation. It is a specific, unusual, and fixable failure signature.
Atlanta's red-zone finishing went from 31st to 5th in two years, while the offense between the 20s went nowhere. Trust the movement, not the finish.
TrendATL red-zone touchdown rate vs overall offense, by season
| Season | RZ TD rate (per snap) | RZ rank | Overall offense rank (EPA) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18.1% | 24th | 28th |
| 2022 | 17.6% | 20th | 14th |
| 2023 | 15.5% | 31st | 26th |
| 2024 | 18.4% | 17th | 13th |
| 2025 | 21.8% | 5th | 24th |
In 2023 Atlanta was one of the worst finishing teams in football, punching in a touchdown on just 15.5% of red-zone snaps (31st). Two years later it was 5th at 21.8%. Meanwhile the offense's overall EPA rank bounced from 26th to 13th and back down to 24th, with no relationship to the finishing number. The 2025 formula, a bottom-third offense propped up by top-5 finishing, is exactly the kind of split that history says does not hold.
Why it matters. Red-zone conversion feels like identity and grades like noise: extreme finishing rates, good or bad, tend to drift back to the middle the following year, while per-snap movement is what actually persists. That cuts both ways for Atlanta. The 2023 despair was overdone, and so is any 2026 optimism built on the 2025 finishing spike. The number that has to move is the 24th-ranked offense underneath it.
Atlanta plays its best football right before halftime, then comes out of the locker room and forgets how. 12th in the 2nd quarter, 27th in the 3rd.
SplitATL offensive EPA/play by quarter vs NFL average, 2023-2025
| Quarter | ATL EPA | NFL avg | ATL rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | -0.008 | -0.009 | 18th |
| 2nd | +0.050 | +0.022 | 12th |
| 3rd | -0.091 | -0.006 | 27th |
| 4th | -0.069 | -0.034 | 23rd |
Worst 3rd-quarter offenses, 2023-2025
| Rank | Team | 3rd-Q EPA/play |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | ATL | -0.091 |
| 28 | HOU | -0.131 |
| 29 | NYJ | -0.140 |
| 30 | TEN | -0.146 |
| 31 | CLE | -0.192 |
| 32 | LV | -0.243 |
In the 2nd quarter Atlanta's offense hums at +0.050 EPA per play, 12th in the league and well above the +0.022 average, scripted, in rhythm, moving. Then halftime hits and it craters to -0.091, 27th in football, a swing of 0.14 EPA per play. The unit that looks sharp on a scripted opening stretch can't find answers once the opponent adjusts at the break.
Why it matters. The first half is where the play-script lives and where coaches have a plan ready; the 3rd quarter is the adjustment quarter, and that is exactly where Atlanta collapses. A drop this steep right after halftime is a coaching-and-counterpunch tell, not a talent tell. Good teams come out of the locker room with answers, Atlanta comes out flat.
Where games are decided
Atlanta is the inverse of a clutch team: 9th in late-game offensive efficiency, 19th in actually winning the close ones.
AnomalyOffensive EPA/play in competitive late situations, 2023-2025
| Rank | Team | Clutch EPA/play | Snaps |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | +0.178 | 300 |
| 2 | DAL | +0.153 | 263 |
| 3 | LA | +0.143 | 325 |
| 8 | MIA | +0.051 | 224 |
| 9 | ATL | +0.043 | 420 |
One-score game record (final margin <= 8), 2023-2025
| Rank | Team | Record | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 24-9 | 72.7% |
| 2 | PIT | 22-9 | 71.0% |
| 3 | SEA | 18-9 | 66.7% |
| 19 | ATL | 15-17 | 46.9% |
In competitive late-game situations (win probability 20-80%, 4th quarter or final 5 minutes) Atlanta's offense ranks 9th in the NFL at +0.043 EPA per play, and it logs 420 such snaps, the most of any team in football. Yet the Falcons go just 15-17 (46.9%, 19th) in one-score games. They run the most close-game reps, move the ball as well as almost anyone in those moments, and still lose more of them than they win.
Why it matters. Most teams chase clutch reputations they cannot back with efficiency; Atlanta has the opposite problem, a process that is genuinely good late and a win-loss ledger that does not reflect it. That gap usually lives in the margins clutch EPA does not capture: a missed kick, a defensive lapse, a turnover at the worst time. The efficiency says the offense is not why these games slip away.
The 2016 Falcons offense is still one of the 15 best of the last quarter century. Nothing Atlanta has fielded since comes close.
MilestoneBest offensive seasons by EPA/play since 1999
| Rank | Team | Season | Off EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 2007 | +0.258 |
| 2 | KC | 2018 | +0.243 |
| 3 | GB | 2011 | +0.228 |
| 13 | ATL | 2016 | +0.189 |
Atlanta's own best offensive seasons since 1999
| Season | Off EPA/play | All-time rank (1999-2025) |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | +0.189 | 13th |
| 2012 | +0.084 | 133rd |
| 2018 | +0.072 | 158th |
The Matt Ryan MVP offense of 2016 produced +0.189 EPA per play, the 13th-best offensive season of the last 27 years, in the company of prime Brady, Mahomes and Rodgers units. It carried Atlanta through a 36-20 playoff win over Seattle and a 44-21 demolition of Green Bay before the 34-28 Super Bowl loss to New England. The gap to the franchise's second-best season is a chasm: 2012 ranks 133rd all-time. That one year remains the outlier peak of the entire era.
Why it matters. Franchises are usually remembered for their best team, and Atlanta's best team was historically excellent on exactly one side of the ball. The 13th-best offense of a 27-year sample is a legitimate all-timer, which is what makes the Super Bowl collapse sting and the years since look so flat: the roster has never again ranked better than 13th for a season, and usually sits in the 20s. The 2016 tape is the franchise ceiling, and it is a high one.
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