Team
Chicago Bears
NFC North
Interceptions are the highest-leverage defensive play in football, worth far more in win probability than a routine stop. The Bears have built a takeaway-first identity that hands their offense short fields and steals possessions, the kind of edge that keeps close games winnable. This is the defensive backbone the 11-6 breakthrough stood on.
The 2025 breakthrough
The Bears have picked off more passes than any defense in football, and it isn't close.
RareMost interceptions, 2023-2025 (regular season)
| Rank | Team | INTs |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 56 |
| 2 | HOU | 52 |
| 3 | PIT | 48 |
| 4 | BUF | 47 |
| 5 (tie) | IND | 45 |
| 5 (tie) | DET | 45 |
Most interceptions, 2025 only
| Rank | Team | INTs |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 23 |
| 2 | JAX | 22 |
| 3 (tie) | LAC | 19 |
| 3 (tie) | HOU | 19 |
Over the last three seasons the Bears have intercepted 56 passes, the most of any team in the NFL, four clear of Houston and eight clear of Pittsburgh. It is not a fading number either: they led the entire league again in 2025 with 23 picks while throwing only 7 themselves, a +16 interception margin. While the offense grew up around Caleb Williams, the ball-hawking secondary was quietly the most productive in football at the one thing that flips games.
Why it matters. Interceptions are the highest-leverage defensive play in football, worth far more in win probability than a routine stop. The Bears have built a takeaway-first identity that hands their offense short fields and steals possessions, the kind of edge that keeps close games winnable. This is the defensive backbone the 11-6 breakthrough stood on.
Caleb Williams was sacked 68 times as a rookie behind the league's worst line. One year later he plays behind the 3rd-best.
TrendBears sack rate allowed, by season (regular season)
| Season | Sack rate | Sacks | NFL rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 9.7% | 58 | 32nd (worst) |
| 2022 | 13.2% | 58 | 32nd (worst) |
| 2023 | 8.8% | 50 | 26th |
| 2024 | 10.6% | 68 | 32nd (worst) |
| 2025 | 4.0% | 24 | 3rd (best) |
Caleb Williams, rookie year vs Year 2 (regular season)
| Season | Pass yds | TD | INT | Sacks taken |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 3,541 | 20 | 6 | 68 |
| 2025 | 3,942 | 27 | 7 | 24 |
In 2024 the Bears were sacked on 10.6% of dropbacks, dead last in the NFL, and Caleb Williams ate 68 sacks as a rookie. That was the rule, not the exception: Chicago finished worst in the league in 2021, 2022, and 2024. Then in 2025 the protection inverted to a 4.0% sack rate, 3rd-best in football, and Williams jumped to 3,942 yards and 27 touchdowns while absorbing 44 fewer sacks. Same quarterback, completely different pocket.
Why it matters. Chronic pressure had been the defining flaw of Bears offenses for years, capping every quarterback who tried to run one. The 2025 protection turnaround is the mechanism behind the offensive leap: a clean pocket let Williams hold the ball, push it downfield, and stop absorbing drive-killing sacks. You cannot evaluate his rookie season without the 68-sack context, and you cannot explain Year 2 without the line fix.
How the Bears play
The deep ball went from the offense's weakest weapon to one of its sharpest in a single year.
ComparisonBears deep passing (20+ air yards), 2024 vs 2025
| Season | Deep att | Comp% | EPA/play | NFL rank (EPA) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 81 | 27.2% | -0.066 | 28th |
| 2025 | 83 | 38.6% | +0.560 | 11th |
Where the whole offense landed, EPA/play
| Season | Off EPA/play | NFL rank |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | -0.082 | 26th |
| 2025 | +0.079 | 8th |
On nearly identical volume (81 deep attempts in 2024, 83 in 2025), the Bears' shot play went from a liability to an asset. Deep-ball EPA swung from -0.066 (28th in the NFL) to +0.560 (11th), and the completion rate climbed from 27.2% to 38.6%. That single fix helped drag the entire offense from 26th in EPA per play up to 8th. The team was throwing the same number of bombs in 2024; they just weren't landing.
Why it matters. The deep ball is the highest-variance, highest-reward play in the passing game, and it is also the play that suffers most behind a leaky line. Fix the protection (sack rate fell from worst to 3rd-best), give the quarterback a clean platform, and the bombs start connecting. The deep-ball recovery is both a symptom and a driver of the broader offensive jump.
When the wind kicks up off the lake, almost no offense falls apart like Chicago's.
SplitBiggest pass-EPA drop in 15+ mph wind, 2018-2025 (outdoor games)
| Rank | Team | Calm pass EPA | Windy pass EPA | Drop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | -0.059 | -0.335 | 0.276 |
| 2 | DAL | +0.097 | -0.142 | 0.239 |
| 3 | CHI | -0.012 | -0.196 | 0.183 |
| 4 | IND | -0.010 | -0.191 | 0.180 |
| 5 | NYJ | -0.126 | -0.299 | 0.173 |
Soldier Field sits on the Lake Michigan shoreline, and when the wind blows the Bears offense stops working. In 15+ mph wind, Chicago's passing game craters from a roughly break-even -0.012 EPA per play to -0.196, a 0.183 drop that is the 3rd-steepest among teams with meaningful outdoor snaps. Their completion rate in those conditions falls from 58.6% to 52.2%. Across 2018-2025 they have played 11 outdoor games at 15+ mph, and the passing game has been a different, worse unit in them.
Why it matters. Wind punishes the parts of an offense the Bears now lean on hardest: timing throws, intermediate accuracy, and the recovered deep ball. A passing attack that is fine in calm air but collapses in a gusty December lakefront game is a real scheduling and play-calling problem, not noise. It is also a built-in advantage Chicago can press on defense when the conditions turn.
Myth test: the flag count decides games. Chicago went 7-4 while being the more penalized team.
Who actually wins the game, 1999-2025 (regular season)
| Edge held | Win rate |
|---|---|
| Fewer penalties than opponent | 55.3% |
| Fewer interceptions thrown than opponent | 77.1% |
The Bears' 2025 season, by battle
| Split | Record |
|---|---|
| Games with MORE penalties than opponent | 7-4 |
| Games winning the interception battle | 8-2 |
Every broadcast tracks the flag count like it decides the game. Across this entire data set the team with fewer penalties wins just 55.3% of the time, barely better than a coin flip, while the team that wins the interception battle wins 77.1%. The 2025 Bears are the myth-buster in miniature: they were out-disciplined in eleven games and went 7-4 in them, because they were busy winning the battle that matters, going 8-2 when they had the interception edge.
Why it matters. Penalties mostly move the ball a few yards and replay a down; a turnover ends a possession and gifts one, often with field position attached. That is why a sloppy-looking team can keep winning and a disciplined one can keep losing. For a team built on a league-leading interception total, judging Chicago by its flag count is measuring the wrong column of the box score.
The record books
One season ended three droughts: first winning record since 2018, first division crown since 2018, first playoff win since 2010.
MilestoneRecent Bears seasons (regular season)
| Season | Record | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 12-4 | Best record in NFC North |
| 2019 | 8-8 | |
| 2020 | 8-8 | Wild-card loss |
| 2021 | 6-11 | |
| 2022 | 3-14 | |
| 2023 | 7-10 | |
| 2024 | 5-12 | |
| 2025 | 11-6 | Best record in NFC North, wild-card win |
Every Bears playoff win since 1999
| Season | Round | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2006 | Divisional | CHI 27, SEA 24 |
| 2006 | Conference | CHI 39, NO 14 |
| 2010 | Divisional | CHI 35, SEA 24 |
| 2025 | Wild card | CHI 31, GB 27 |
The 2025 Bears went 11-6, the franchise's first winning season since 2018, and finished with the best record in the NFC North for the first time since that same year. Then they did something rarer: beat Green Bay 31-27 in the wild-card round for the team's first playoff win since the 2010 divisional round, only the fourth in this entire data set. A fifteen-season playoff-win drought died in one afternoon at Soldier Field.
Why it matters. Droughts frame how much a single season changes a franchise's trajectory. Chicago spent six straight years below .500, bottoming at 3-14, before this. Breaking the winning-season, division, and playoff-win droughts simultaneously converts a rebuild into a contender timeline, and doing it over Green Bay, the rival that owned this matchup for most of two decades, is the version fans will remember.
Since 1999 the Bears built seven top-5 defenses and one top-5 offense. The 2025 team flipped the blueprint.
ComparisonEvery CHI top-5 defense since 1999 (EPA allowed)
| Season | NFL rank |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 1st |
| 2012 | 1st |
| 2018 | 1st |
| 2006 | 2nd |
| 2001 | 4th |
| 2010 | 4th |
| 2004 | 5th |
The 2025 inversion
| Unit | EPA/play | NFL rank |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | +0.079 | 8th |
| Defense | +0.018 allowed | 19th |
This is historically a defense factory: seven top-5 defenses since 1999, three of them ranked 1st outright (2005, 2012, 2018). Top-5 offenses over the same span: one (2013). The 2025 team inverted the formula completely, riding an 8th-ranked offense while the defense sat 19th and survived on interceptions. For the first time in a generation, the Bears' better unit is the one with the ball.
Why it matters. The inversion matters for what comes next. The franchise's classic formula, elite defense dragging a limp offense, kept producing 8-8 ceilings because great defenses decay fast. An offense-led team is the configuration history treats more kindly: good offenses hold their level year over year better than good defenses do, which makes this version of a contending Bears team more durable than the 2006 or 2018 editions.
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