Team
Cincinnati Bengals
AFC North
The 6-11 record is mostly a quarterback-availability artifact, which makes it less predictive than it looks: QB health is the fastest team problem to fix, and the passing infrastructure (Chase, Higgins, the scheme) ranked top-10 the last time Burrow played a full season. The defense is the opposite case, because explosive-play leaks live in roster speed and coverage structure, which do not heal over an offseason.
The 2025 season and the way back
Three quarterbacks, six wins. History says the offense comes back before the defense does.
Cincinnati 2025, regular season
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-11 |
| Points for | 414 |
| Points against | 492 |
| Point differential | -78 |
| Passers with 100+ attempts | 3 |
The three passers, 2025
| Passer | Attempts | Pass yards |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 259 | 1,809 |
| Joe Flacco | 256 | 1,664 |
| Jake Browning | 125 | 771 |
Burrow, Flacco and Browning each threw 100-plus passes in 2025, and seasons like that end one way: since 1999, teams that spread 100 attempts across three passers have finished with a winning record 2 times in 33. Even so, the offense still ranked 19th in EPA per play while splitting snaps three ways, and it ranked 7th as recently as 2024. The plain expectation for 2026: with one healthy quarterback, the offense returns to the top half of the league, while the defense's big-play problem, 32nd in explosive rate allowed in two of the last three seasons, is the part history expects to linger.
Why it matters. The 6-11 record is mostly a quarterback-availability artifact, which makes it less predictive than it looks: QB health is the fastest team problem to fix, and the passing infrastructure (Chase, Higgins, the scheme) ranked top-10 the last time Burrow played a full season. The defense is the opposite case, because explosive-play leaks live in roster speed and coverage structure, which do not heal over an offseason.
No defense in football gives up the big play like Cincinnati. They are last in explosive plays allowed, gashed through the air and on the ground.
RareMost explosive plays (20+ yds) allowed, 2023-2025 (reg season)
| Rank | Team | Explosive % | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | CIN | 6.9% | 219 |
| 31 | DET | 6.9% | 213 |
| 30 | CHI | 6.4% | 197 |
| 29 | CLE | 6.4% | 192 |
| 28 | TB | 6.4% | 199 |
CIN explosive-rate allowed by play type, NFL rank (32 = worst)
| Type | Rate allowed | NFL rank |
|---|---|---|
| Pass (20+) | 9.7% | 31st |
| Run (20+) | 3.3% | 30th |
CIN explosive-rate allowed by season
| Season | Rate allowed | NFL rank |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 7.8% | 32nd |
| 2024 | 5.4% | 11th |
| 2025 | 7.6% | 32nd |
Across 2023-2025 the Bengals surrendered an explosive play (20+ yards) on 6.9% of snaps, dead last (32nd) in the NFL. This is not a one-side weakness. They rank 31st against explosive passes (9.7%) and 30th against explosive runs (3.3%), so they get carved up both ways. And it is not one bad year: 32nd in 2023, 32nd again in 2025, with only 2024's rebuild to 11th interrupting. A defense that cannot stop the big play cannot survive a back-foot situation.
Why it matters. Explosive plays are the single biggest driver of points allowed: one snap can erase a defense's whole field-position effort. Being last in both the pass and the run version means there is no scheme tilt to hide behind, every coverage bust and missed-tackle lane is open. It is the mechanical reason the 2025 unit gave up 28.9 points per game even when the offense kept scoring.
Myth test: Burrow's Bengals are a clutch team. The one-score ledger says 25-42 since 2018.
Worst one-score (margin 1-8) record, 2018-2025 (reg season)
| Rank | Team | Record | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | ARI | 21-42 | 33.3% |
| 31 | JAX | 23-42 | 35.4% |
| 30 | CAR | 26-44 | 37.1% |
| 29 | CIN | 25-42 | 37.3% |
| 28 | NYG | 28-44 | 38.9% |
CIN clutch EPA/play, competitive 4Q / last 5 min, 2023-2025
| Side | EPA/play | NFL rank |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | +0.003 | 18th |
| Defense allowed | +0.019 | 17th |
Comeback wins and a quarterback with ice in his veins built the brand. The scoreboard tells a colder story: in games decided by 8 or fewer, Cincinnati is 25-42 (.373) since 2018, 29th in the NFL, sitting next to Carolina and the Giants. The why shows up in the efficiency: when the win probability is live in the 4th quarter, the offense is a middling 18th and the defense a middling 17th. Neither side wins the moment, so the close ones tip the wrong way. In 2025 they went 3-5 in one-score games. The consolation is the same law that kills the legend: one-score records are mostly coin flips, so 25-42 is not destiny either.
Why it matters. Records in tight games are where reputations and reality most often diverge, and Cincinnati is the textbook case of the gap. A genuinely clutch team posts both a winning one-score record and above-average late-game efficiency; the Bengals have neither. That makes the comeback legend a highlight-reel artifact, but it also means the anti-clutch read is just as hollow: what history actually says is that close-game ledgers reset every season.
Top-11 offense, 29th defense. The Bengals are one of the four most lopsided teams in football, all gas and no brakes.
AnomalyMost offense-tilted teams (def rank minus off rank), 2023-2025 EPA/play
| Team | Offense rank | Defense rank | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 2nd | 24th | 22 |
| WAS | 12th | 31st | 19 |
| DAL | 10th | 28th | 18 |
| CIN | 11th | 29th | 18 |
CIN offense vs defense EPA rank, by season
| Season | Offense rank | Defense rank |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 5th | 10th |
| 2023 | 12th | 28th |
| 2024 | 7th | 22nd |
| 2025 | 19th | 29th |
Over the last three years Cincinnati's offense ranks 11th in EPA per play while the defense ranks 29th, an 18-spot gap that ties for the 4th-largest offense-over-defense tilt in the NFL, in company with Dallas and Washington. It was not always this way: the 2022 AFC Championship team was balanced (5th offense, 10th defense). Since 2023 the defense has lived between 22nd and 29th every year while the offense carries the load, a structurally unbalanced roster that has to win shootouts because it cannot win any other way.
Why it matters. Lopsided rosters live and die by variance: when the offense is hot they blow teams out, when it stalls there is no defense to keep the game close. The 18-spot tilt is the architecture behind Cincinnati's boom-or-bust seasons and the reason a franchise quarterback's team produced a 6-11 record in 2025. Fixing it is a defensive-personnel problem, not a coaching tweak.
How the Bengals play
The Bengals' famous slow starts are a myth. Their offense is 4th-best in the NFL in the 1st quarter. It is the close finishes that bury them.
AnomalyBest offensive EPA/play in the 1st quarter, 2023-2025 (reg season)
| Rank | Team | Q1 EPA/play |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | +0.145 |
| 2 | IND | +0.099 |
| 3 | DET | +0.090 |
| 4 | CIN | +0.085 |
| 5 | BUF | +0.085 |
CIN offense EPA/play by quarter, NFL rank
| Quarter | EPA/play | NFL rank |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | +0.085 | 4th |
| 2nd | -0.018 | 24th |
| 3rd | +0.091 | 6th |
| 4th | -0.045 | 15th |
The book on Cincinnati is that they sleepwalk through the opening act. The film says the opposite: over 2023-2025 their offense ranks 4th in the NFL in 1st-quarter EPA per play (+0.085), ahead of Buffalo and right behind Detroit. They come out fast. Where they actually sag is the 2nd quarter (24th) and the 4th (15th), the situational and clutch windows. The reputation has the timing exactly backwards.
Why it matters. A scripted opening drive is the part of the game a staff controls most, and Cincinnati's wins it. The drop-off arrives in the 2nd quarter, when defenses adjust and the script runs out, and again in the 4th, when games tighten. That pattern points at in-game adjustment and late-game execution, not preparation or scheme installation, which is a very different fix than the slow-start narrative implies.
The deep ball cuts both ways in Cincinnati. Burrow and Chase rank 9th throwing it. The defense ranks 31st letting it go over their heads.
SplitCIN deep ball (20+ air yards), offense vs defense, 2023-2025
| Unit | EPA/play | Comp % | NFL rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense (thrown) | +0.494 | 36.7% | 9th-best |
| Defense (allowed) | +0.368 | 35.3% | 20th |
Worst explosive-pass (20+ yd) rate allowed, 2023-2025
| Rank | Team | Explosive pass % |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | DET | 10.0% |
| 31 | CIN | 9.7% |
| 30 | CHI | 9.4% |
The Ja'Marr Chase deep shot is still a real weapon: Cincinnati's offense ranks 9th in deep-ball EPA (+0.494) over the last three years, the part of the reputation that holds up. The other side of the field is the problem. Their defense allows +0.368 EPA on deep balls (20th) and the 2nd-highest explosive-pass rate in the league (9.7%, 31st). Same offense that lives on the bomb, same secondary that keeps surrendering it.
Why it matters. Deep passing is the highest-variance, highest-value play in football, and Cincinnati sits on both ends of it at once. The offense earns its deep-ball reputation, so opponents cannot just take the top away. But a secondary that ranks 31st in explosive-pass rate hands those same chunk plays right back, which is why shootouts are the Bengals' natural game state rather than an accident.
No disguise in Cincinnati: only Washington lives in the shotgun more, and the shotgun tips the pass.
SplitHighest shotgun rate, 2025 (reg season, pass/run plays)
| Rank | Team | Shotgun rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | 87.8% |
| 2 | CIN | 82.0% |
| 3 | KC | 80.7% |
| 4 | ATL | 80.5% |
CIN shotgun rate by season, NFL rank
| Season | Shotgun rate | NFL rank |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 62.5% | 18th |
| 2022 | 78.5% | 5th |
| 2023 | 85.4% | 3rd |
| 2024 | 84.0% | 3rd |
| 2025 | 82.0% | 2nd |
After Joe Burrow spent 2021 under siege, Cincinnati rebuilt the offense around getting him off the line: the shotgun rate jumped from 62.5% (18th) in 2021 to top-5 every season since, landing at 82.0%, 2nd in the NFL, in 2025. The trade-off is legibility. From the gun the Bengals throw 72.2% of the time; under center, just 29.6%, both within a point of league norms. Defenses do not have to guess much in Cincinnati; the alignment is the scouting report, and the Bengals accept that to protect their quarterback's sight lines.
Why it matters. Formation base is the skeleton of an offense, and Cincinnati's shift after 2021 was a deliberate structural answer to its pass-protection crisis rather than a season-to-season whim. The persistence matters for opponents and fantasy alike: a team this committed to the gun is committing to a pass-first identity, since the shotgun snap itself signals pass at a 72 percent clip.
Feed the stars: only two offenses funnel more of their targets to a top duo than Cincinnati.
ComparisonShare of team targets to top two pass catchers, 2023-2025 (reg season)
| Rank | Team | Top-2 target share |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 49.0% |
| 2 | DET | 44.3% |
| 3 | CIN | 43.1% |
| 4 | MIN | 42.8% |
| 5 | IND | 42.8% |
Over the last three seasons, Ja'Marr Chase (505 targets) and Tee Higgins (283) have absorbed 43.1% of all 1,828 Bengal targets, the 3rd-most concentrated tree in football behind only Philadelphia and Detroit. Everyone in the stadium knows where the ball is going, and Cincinnati throws it there anyway. That is a statement about the receivers, and it is also the shape of the offense: two branches, everything else an afterthought.
Why it matters. Target concentration is a roster-construction choice as much as a scheme one: Cincinnati pays two elite separators instead of four decent ones, and the tree regrows around them every season. For opponents it means bracketing Chase is mandatory and still often insufficient; for fantasy it means Bengal target value is unusually predictable, concentrated in two names regardless of who plays quarterback.
Paul Brown Stadium flips the usual script: the Bengals' offense plays better at home, but the home defense is the league-bad part.
SplitCIN home vs away EPA/play, 2018-2025 (reg season)
| Site | Offense | Defense allowed | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | +0.021 | +0.090 | 48.5% |
| Away | -0.012 | +0.025 | 39.4% |
Most home-tilted offenses (away minus home EPA), 2018-2025
| Rank | Team | Road-minus-home |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | MIA | -0.050 |
| 31 | IND | -0.044 |
| 30 | NYJ | -0.035 |
| 29 | CIN | -0.033 |
Most teams lean on their defense for home-field edge while the offense travels fine. Cincinnati is backwards. Their offense is sharper at home (+0.021 vs -0.012 on the road), the 4th-most home-dependent offense in the NFL by the away-minus-home gap. But the home defense is the disaster: it allows +0.090 EPA per play at home versus +0.025 on the road, nearly four times worse. The crowd helps Burrow and hurts the unit that is supposed to feed off it.
Why it matters. Home-field advantage is usually a defense-and-noise story, the crowd rattles the visiting offense. For Cincinnati the noise seems to juice their own offense instead, while the home defense plays its worst football. That inverts how you would game-plan against them: the edge to attack is the Bengals defense in their own building, not on the road.
The record books
Three receiving triple crowns in a quarter century. Ja'Marr Chase owns the newest one.
RareLed the NFL in catches, yards, and receiving TDs in the same season, since 1999
| Player | Season | Rec | Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 2005 | 103 | 1,563 | 12 |
| Cooper Kupp | 2021 | 145 | 1,947 | 16 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 2024 | 127 | 1,708 | 17 |
How far back the 2024 field was
| Category | Chase | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 127 | Amon-Ra St. Brown, 115 |
| Receiving yards | 1,708 | Justin Jefferson, 1,533 |
| Receiving TDs | 17 | Terry McLaurin, 13 |
Since 1999, exactly three players have led the league in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns in the same season: Steve Smith in 2005, Cooper Kupp in 2021, and Ja'Marr Chase in 2024. Chase's wasn't close, either: 12 more catches than anyone else, 175 more yards, and 4 more touchdowns. A quarter century of Moss, Owens, Johnson, Jefferson and Hill produced two triple crowns; Chase added the third before turning 25.
Why it matters. The triple crown is rare because its three categories reward different receiver archetypes: volume slot machines win receptions, deep threats win yards, and red-zone sizes win touchdowns. Sweeping all three means a player is simultaneously his team's possession option, field-stretcher, and goal-line target, which is the strongest single-season statistical claim a receiver can make.
Sixteen seasons, zero playoff wins: Marvin Lewis's Cincinnati tenure is a unicorn twice over.
MilestoneLongest head-coach tenures with one team since 1999
| Rank | Coach | Team | Seasons | Span |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bill Belichick | NE | 24 | 2000-2023 |
| 2 | Mike Tomlin | PIT | 19 | 2007-2025 |
| 3 | John Harbaugh | BAL | 18 | 2008-2025 |
| 4 | Marvin Lewis | CIN | 16 | 2003-2018 |
| 5 | Sean Payton | NO | 15 | 2006-2021 |
Only Belichick, Tomlin and Harbaugh have coached one franchise longer this century than Marvin Lewis's 16 seasons in Cincinnati (2003-2018). The catch: Lewis went 131-122-3 in the regular season and 0-7 in the playoffs, seven straight postseason exits without a win. Nearly nine of ten coaching hires never see an eighth season; Lewis doubled that bar while never winning in January. The other three names on this list combined for ten Super Bowl appearances in the same stretch.
Why it matters. Coaching tenure is supposed to be bought with playoff success, which is what makes Lewis the great outlier of the modern era: sixteen years of above-.500-adjacent football with a hard January ceiling. It reframes the Bengals' 2021-2022 breakthrough, because the organization's first playoff wins in the database came only after the decade-plus of contending-but-never-converting that Lewis's tenure defined.
In this database, Cincinnati had never won a playoff game. Then came five wins in two years and a Super Bowl trip.
TrendCincinnati in the playoffs since 1999
| Era | Record | What happened |
|---|---|---|
| 2005-2015 | 0-7 | Seven straight one-and-done exits |
| 2021 | 3-1 | AFC champions, Super Bowl loss to LA 23-20 |
| 2022 | 2-1 | Lost the AFC title game at KC 23-20 |
From 1999 through 2020, Cincinnati won zero playoff games, going 0-7 across seven appearances between 2005 and 2015, every one of them a wild-card exit. The 2020 team finished 4-11-1, last in the AFC North. Two years later the same franchise won three playoff games in a row, took the AFC Championship in Kansas City, and lost the Super Bowl by a field goal, 23-20. It went from more than two decades without a playoff win to back-to-back AFC title games in the space of 24 months. Droughts end fast when the quarterback shows up.
Why it matters. This is the cleanest case study in how quickly an NFL bottom becomes a contender: the recovery machinery of high picks, cap space and a franchise quarterback compresses rebuilds far below the five-year folklore. It also frames the current moment, because the 2025 collapse was a health event on top of that same core, not a return to the 0-7 era's roster quality.
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