Team
Green Bay Packers
NFC North
The vertical passing game is the highest-variance, highest-leverage area of an NFL game, and most teams are good at attacking it or defending it, not both. Green Bay's roster is built to win the explosive-play battle in both directions: a downfield arm and burners on offense, length and a pass rush that shortens the window on defense. That two-way deep-ball control lets them play a low-event, big-swing brand of football most contenders can't replicate.
The 2025 ledger
Green Bay owns the deep ball on both ends, one of only three NFL teams that does.
RareTop-6 in BOTH deep-ball offense AND defense, 2023-2025 (EPA, reg season)
| Team | Off deep rank | Off deep EPA | Def deep rank | Def deep EPA allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 2nd | +0.725 | 4th | +0.193 |
| GB | 5th | +0.638 | 2nd | +0.176 |
| PHI | 6th | +0.595 | 1st | +0.160 |
Contenders that only own one end
| Team | Off deep rank | Def deep rank |
|---|---|---|
| LA | 3rd | 10th |
| SF | 4th | 13th |
On deep passes (20+ air yards), the Packers' own offense ranks 5th in EPA (+0.638) and their defense ranks 2nd in EPA allowed (+0.176). Only Seattle and Philadelphia join them inside the top six on both ends. Green Bay throws it over your head AND refuses to let you throw it over theirs: a 5.3% touchdown rate allowed on deep shots, a 36.2% completion rate allowed, and the fewest deep balls faced in the league (152), because opponents have learned not to bother.
Why it matters. The vertical passing game is the highest-variance, highest-leverage area of an NFL game, and most teams are good at attacking it or defending it, not both. Green Bay's roster is built to win the explosive-play battle in both directions: a downfield arm and burners on offense, length and a pass rush that shortens the window on defense. That two-way deep-ball control lets them play a low-event, big-swing brand of football most contenders can't replicate.
The Packers used to be an offense machine with a shaky defense. 2024 flipped it, and 2025 flipped it back.
TrendGB offense & defense EPA rank, by season (reg season)
| Season | Offense rank | Defense rank |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 1st | 14th |
| 2021 | 3rd | 16th |
| 2022 | 16th | 27th |
| 2023 | 6th | 24th |
| 2024 | 8th | 4th |
| 2025 | 4th | 22nd |
In 2024 the Packers finally built a top-5 defense, 4th in EPA allowed, while the offense sat 8th. One year later it inverted: the offense surged to 4th and the defense fell off a cliff to 22nd. The 2025 team went 9-7-1 carried by the side of the ball that was supposed to be the question mark, with the unit that won them games in 2024 dragging behind.
Why it matters. Sustained contention usually requires both units to hold serve in the same season, and Green Bay keeps having one carry the other instead of both arriving together. The 2024-to-2025 swing (defense 4th then 22nd, offense 8th then 4th) is also a live demonstration of which side of the ball decays faster: the defense's collapse was the historically normal outcome, not bad luck. Until the two ranks overlap near the top in the same year, the ceiling stays capped.
What happens next: the blowouts say this is more than a nine-win team.
GB 2025, two ledgers
| Ledger | Result |
|---|---|
| Overall | 9-7-1 (+31 points) |
| Decisive games (9+ margin) | 5-2, +29 points |
| One-score games | 4-5, plus a tie |
| Offense EPA rank | 4th |
Best decisive-game records, 2025 (min 6 decisive games)
| Team | Decisive W-L | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| LA | 8-0 | 1.000 |
| NE | 7-0 | 1.000 |
| SEA | 8-0 | 1.000 |
| JAX | 7-1 | .875 |
| BUF | 7-2 | .778 |
| GB | 5-2 | .714 |
Top-5 offenses since 1999: what happens next year
| Unit | Avg next rank | Still top-10 |
|---|---|---|
| Top-5 offense (130 cases) | 9.6 | 63.1% |
| Top-5 defense (130 cases) | 12.2 | 53.8% |
Strip out the nine nervy finishes and Green Bay was 5-2 with a +29 margin when games got decided by more than a score, a .714 clip that sits just behind the league's elite. What dragged the record to 9-7-1 was the coin-flip ledger: 4-5 and a tie in one-score games. The signal half of the season, the blowouts plus a 4th-ranked offense, reads like a double-digit-win team. The on-the-record call: the offense finishes top ten again in 2026 and Green Bay clears ten wins.
Why it matters. Honesty about the base rates: teams with a strong blowout profile and a middling record improved only about half the time historically (30 such teams since 1999 averaged +0.27 wins), so the record piece of this forecast leans on the close games landing evenly rather than on a guaranteed surge. The sturdier leg is the offense: top-5 offenses stay top-10 the next season 63% of the time, and offenses hold their level better than defenses do. The fragile leg is a 22nd-ranked defense that has to stop being a weekly handicap.
How the Packers play
Myth test: Green Bay is 13-4 when it runs 30+ times. That stat is a scoreboard effect, not a recipe.
GB run share by game state, 2023-2025 (pass/run plays)
| Game state | Runs | Passes | Run share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leading | 645 | 594 | 52.1% |
| Tied | 282 | 274 | 50.7% |
| Trailing | 493 | 768 | 39.1% |
GB early downs in a close game (Q1-Q3, win prob 20-80%), 2023-2025
| Play | Plays | EPA/play | Success rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pass | 604 | +0.190 | 50.3% |
| Run | 686 | -0.005 | 42.7% |
Green Bay is 13-4 since 2023 when it runs the ball 30 or more times, the kind of stat that launches a thousand establish-the-run takes. Read the causality backwards and it dissolves: the Packers run on 52% of snaps when leading and 39% when trailing. Winning causes running, not the reverse. And on early downs with the game still in doubt, the pass earns +0.190 EPA per play against -0.005 for the run, yet Green Bay still hands off more often than it throws in exactly those spots (686 runs to 604 passes).
Why it matters. The 13-4 record is real and really misleading: run volume is what a lead looks like in the box score, which is why the correlation seduces announcers every Sunday. The actionable part is the second table. Green Bay leaves roughly a fifth of a point per snap on the table every time it defaults to a neutral-situation early-down run, a meaningful leak for an offense this good, and the clearest place the 4th-ranked unit could still get better.
The deep ball used to miss constantly in Green Bay. In 2025 it connected at the 4th-best rate in football.
TrendGB deep passing (20+ air yards), completion % by season (reg season)
| Season | Deep att | Comp % | NFL rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 94 | 30.9% | 23rd |
| 2019 | 98 | 32.7% | 25th |
| 2020 | 78 | 43.6% | 9th |
| 2021 | 81 | 38.3% | 15th |
| 2022 | 81 | 33.3% | 21st |
| 2023 | 78 | 37.2% | 12th |
| 2024 | 76 | 40.8% | 8th |
| 2025 | 70 | 47.1% | 4th |
For a franchise with a cannon at quarterback, the deep ball used to miss constantly: 23rd, 25th, and 21st in completion rate in 2018, 2019, and 2022. The bombs were thrown; they fell incomplete. Since the quarterback change the connection rate has climbed nearly every year, all the way to 47.1% in 2025, 4th in the NFL. Three straight years of improvement: 12th, 8th, 4th. The shots are landing now.
Why it matters. Deep-ball completion rate is a marriage of accuracy, timing, and separation, not raw arm talent, which is why a rocket arm alone never fixed it. The recent climb tracks a more rhythmic downfield attack and receivers who win early rather than late. It reframes the Packers' deep game as a current strength built on precision, not the boom-or-bust heave it was famous for.
Green Bay's defense slams the door over the top and leaves it open underneath.
SplitGB pass defense by depth, 2023-2025 (EPA allowed, reg season)
| Pass depth | EPA allowed | NFL rank |
|---|---|---|
| Deep (20+ air yds) | +0.176 | 2nd |
| Short/intermediate (<20) | +0.166 | 26th |
The Packers are the 2nd-stingiest deep-pass defense in football (+0.176 EPA allowed) and the 26th against everything short of 20 air yards (+0.166). Same secondary, opposite results. They take the explosive play away and dare you to nickel-and-dime them; completing the underneath stuff is exactly what offenses end up settling for, against a 36.2% completion rate allowed on deep shots.
Why it matters. A defense's identity is defined by what it refuses to give up, and Green Bay refuses to give up the chunk play. That's a deliberate trade: keep everything in front, make offenses execute long drives without a mistake, and trust the pass rush to eventually win a down. The weakness is real (26th underneath), but it's the cheap yardage, not the back-breaking kind, which is how the unit survives ranking in the bottom third on the short game.
Green Bay wins up front going both ways: 3rd-best protection in football, and a top-12 pass rush.
ComparisonGB sack rate, both lines, 2023-2025 (reg season)
| Unit | Sack rate | NFL rank | Sacks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pass protection (allowed) | 5.0% | 3rd | 81 on 1,636 dropbacks |
| Pass rush (generated) | 7.2% | 12th | 126 on 1,762 dropbacks |
Lowest sack rate allowed, 2023-2025
| Rank | Team | Sack rate allowed |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 4.6% |
| 2 | LA | 4.8% |
| 3 | GB | 5.0% |
| 4 (tie) | DAL | 5.5% |
| 4 (tie) | DEN | 5.5% |
The Packers keep their quarterback clean better than 29 other teams, a 5.0% sack rate allowed, 3rd in the NFL, behind only Buffalo and the Rams. They gave up just 81 sacks across three years while generating 126 of their own (12th). Both trenches win their down: the offensive line buys time, the front collapses the pocket.
Why it matters. Pressure rate is the single most predictive trench stat for both passing efficiency and defensive disruption, and Green Bay sits comfortably on the right side of it in both directions. A clean pocket is why the deep ball connects; a dirty pocket for the opponent is why those deep shots fall incomplete. The line-of-scrimmage edge is the quiet foundation under the flashier passing numbers.
No offense comes out of the locker room hotter: Green Bay is 3rd in the NFL in the third quarter.
SplitGB offense EPA/play by quarter, 2023-2025 (NFL rank, reg season)
| Quarter | Off EPA/play | NFL rank |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | +0.081 | 7th |
| 2nd | +0.067 | 9th |
| 3rd | +0.150 | 3rd |
| 4th | +0.058 | 4th |
Best 3rd-quarter offenses, 2023-2025
| Rank | Team | Q3 EPA/play |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | +0.202 |
| 2 | BAL | +0.164 |
| 3 | GB | +0.150 |
| 4 | SF | +0.128 |
| 5 | LA | +0.118 |
Whatever gets drawn up on the whiteboard at halftime works. The Packers' offense jumps from a good-not-great +0.067 EPA in the 2nd quarter (9th) to +0.150 in the 3rd, 3rd-best in the NFL, trailing only Buffalo and Baltimore. They are a genuinely strong offense in every quarter, but the post-halftime surge is the signature.
Why it matters. The third quarter is the purest test of in-game coaching: a fresh script written off two quarters of live looks, with no new information for the defense to counter it. Green Bay's jump to 3rd in that window points to sharp halftime adjustments rather than just talent (the talent shows up in all four quarters). It's the kind of edge that wins the close games where the second-half script decides things.
Down on the scoreboard, Green Bay's offense is one of the three best in football.
SplitBest offenses while trailing, 2023-2025 (EPA/play, reg season)
| Rank | Team | Trailing EPA/play |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | +0.159 |
| 2 | PHI | +0.094 |
| 3 | GB | +0.093 |
| 4 | BAL | +0.092 |
| 5 | LA | +0.079 |
GB offense by game state, 2023-2025
| Situation | Off EPA/play | NFL rank |
|---|---|---|
| Trailing | +0.093 | 3rd |
| Leading | +0.098 | 5th |
| Tied | +0.039 | 12th |
Falling behind doesn't shrink this offense, it sharpens it. When trailing, Green Bay produces +0.093 EPA per play, 3rd in the NFL behind only Buffalo and Philadelphia. They don't fold or panic-chuck; they keep operating at a near-elite clip with the game tilting against them. Notably, they're actually a touch worse when the game is tied (12th), the comfortable middle is where they coast.
Why it matters. Plenty of offenses look great with a lead and crumble when forced to play from behind against a defense that knows the pass is coming. Green Bay is the opposite: the deficit unlocks the deep, aggressive version of the offense rather than exposing it. That comeback gear is why a one-score deficit against the Packers is never safe, and it pairs naturally with the league's best-connecting deep ball.
The record books
Four leading passers in this entire data set, and one was an injury cameo. Nobody else comes close.
MilestoneEvery GB season-leading passer since 1999
| Passer | Seasons led | Span |
|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 9 | 1999-2007 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 14 | 2008-2022 (all but 2017) |
| Brett Hundley | 1 | 2017 (Rodgers injured) |
| Jordan Love | 3 | 2023-2025 |
Fewest distinct season-leading passers since 1999
| Team | Distinct leaders |
|---|---|
| GB | 4 |
| LAC | 6 |
| NE | 6 |
| NYG | 6 |
| BAL | 7 |
| CIN | 7 |
| KC | 7 |
Since 1999, only four players have led the Packers in pass attempts in a season, and one of them, Brett Hundley, only did it because Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone in 2017. Favre for nine years, Rodgers for fourteen, Love for three and counting: an unbroken chain of franchise arms no other team can match. The next-tidiest quarterback rooms of the era needed six.
Why it matters. Quarterback continuity is the single biggest reason the Packers' offense almost never bottoms out: the position that touches every snap has changed hands twice in a generation, each time via a drafted-and-groomed successor rather than a scramble. The same franchise has needed only four full-time head coaches over the span. Stability at the two most important jobs in football is the closest thing the league has to a structural cheat code.
Twenty winning seasons in the last 27. Only Pittsburgh and New England have more.
MilestoneMost winning seasons since 1999
| Team | Winning seasons |
|---|---|
| PIT | 21 |
| NE | 21 |
| SEA | 20 |
| GB | 20 |
| PHI | 19 |
Most regular-season wins since 1999
| Rank | Team | Wins |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 292 |
| 2 | PIT | 271 |
| 3 | GB | 268 |
| 4 | BAL | 260 |
Green Bay has finished above .500 in 20 of the last 27 seasons, tied with Seattle and behind only Pittsburgh and New England, and its 268 regular-season wins rank 3rd in the NFL over the span. The remarkable part is that this consistency spans three quarterbacks and four full-time head coaches: the franchise's floor barely moves no matter who is running it.
Why it matters. Winning 74% of your seasons across three decades is an organizational trait, not a roster one; rosters turn over completely several times in that window. It also explains the franchise's patience: coaches and quarterbacks get groomed rather than churned because the machine around them keeps producing competitive baselines. The cost has been title conversion, one championship from all that winning, but the floor itself is nearly unmatched.
Lambeau Field is a half-game from being the best home field of the entire era.
RareBest home records since 1999 (regular season)
| Rank | Team | Home record | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 157-62 | .717 |
| 2 | GB | 155-61-2 | .716 |
| 3 | BAL | 152-67 | .694 |
| 4 | PIT | 148-69-2 | .680 |
| 5 | IND | 143-76 | .653 |
Since 1999 the Packers have won 71.6% of their home games (155-61-2), one one-thousandth behind New England for the best home mark in football over the span. Baltimore, third, is a full two games of win percentage back. Twenty-seven seasons, three quarterbacks, every kind of December weather, and the answer at Lambeau has stayed the same.
Why it matters. A .716 home win rate over nearly three decades means the location itself is worth points: scheduling a trip to Green Bay has been close to an automatic loss for the median visitor for a generation. Unlike the Patriots' mark, which was built around one quarterback and one coach, Green Bay's spans multiple regimes, which argues the advantage lives in the place and the franchise rather than a single era.
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