Team

Miami Dolphins

AFC East

Clutch efficiency is supposed to be a winning trait, so an 8th-ranked clutch offense fading to 7-10 is a contradiction worth explaining. The resolution is that Miami's problems show up before the game is close: blown 2nd-half scripts and road and weather collapses bury them, so the strong late-game offense is too often chasing a deficit rather than protecting a lead. The number is real but it is measuring rallies, not closes.

FanIQ Research · August 30, 2026 · 10 facts, every one from the play-by-play

The 2025 season and the reset

The clutch numbers say Miami is elite late. The win-loss column says otherwise.

Comparison

Offensive EPA/play in competitive late situations, 2023-2025 (reg season)

Rank	Team	Clutch EPA/play
1	PHI	+0.178
2	DAL	+0.153
3	LA	+0.143
6	SF	+0.057
7	TB	+0.051
8	MIA	+0.051

Miami's actual record by season while sitting 8th in clutch offense

Season	Record
2023	11-6
2024	8-9
2025	7-10

Down-to-down, Miami's offense is genuinely good when it matters: +0.051 EPA per play in competitive late situations, 8th in the NFL, ahead of San Francisco and Tampa Bay. Yet the team slid from 11-6 to 7-10 across those same three years. The efficiency is real, the closing isn't, a gap that traces straight back to the other cards: the 3rd-quarter swoon hands back early leads, and the road and cold games (where most December crunch-time lives) collapse before the 4th quarter ever gets close.

Why it matters. Clutch efficiency is supposed to be a winning trait, so an 8th-ranked clutch offense fading to 7-10 is a contradiction worth explaining. The resolution is that Miami's problems show up before the game is close: blown 2nd-half scripts and road and weather collapses bury them, so the strong late-game offense is too often chasing a deficit rather than protecting a lead. The number is real but it is measuring rallies, not closes.

New coach, same math: history's honest target for the 2026 Dolphins is about eight wins.

Miami 2025 profile (reg season)

Metric	Value
Record	7-10
Points for / against	347 / 424
Scoring margin	-77
Expected wins from margin	6.4
One-score games	4-3
Head coach, 2025	Mike McDaniel
Head coach, 2026	Jeff Hafley

Miami's 7-10 actually flattered the team a little: the -77 scoring margin computes to 6.4 expected wins. Into that steps a coaching change, Jeff Hafley taking over for 2026, and history's read on that move is specific: a new head coach buys a real but mild bump, not a transformation. Stack the margin baseline and the coaching tailwind and the gradeable expectation is seven to nine wins, most likely eight. The comfort for the impatient: after a losing season, roughly seven franchises in ten are back in the playoffs within four years. The rebuild clock, historically, runs faster than fans fear.

Why it matters. Forecasts built on vibes about a new staff are worthless; forecasts built on margin are the most repeatable kind. Miami's margin says this is a below-average roster, not a broken one, and the new-coach effect is measurable but small. Anything at nine-plus wins in 2026 means Hafley beat history's average case; another five-win-type collapse means the roster decayed under him, because the baseline says better.

Yards per carry says Miami's run game is top-6. The chains say it's 28th.

High-YPC run games and whether they stay on schedule (2025, reg season)

Team	Yards/carry (rank)	Run success rate (rank)
BAL	5.47 (1st)	43.9% (13th)
BUF	5.25 (2nd)	49.4% (2nd)
CHI	4.98 (3rd)	48.8% (3rd)
MIA	4.84 (6th)	39.9% (28th)

Where Miami's yards actually come from (2025)

Metric	MIA	NFL rank
Runs of 10+ yards	13.0%	4th
Runs stopped for 0 or less	21.5%	2nd-most

By the stat on the broadcast graphic, Miami ran it well in 2025: 4.84 yards per carry, 6th in the NFL. By the stat that predicts anything, they didn't: only 39.9% of those runs actually kept the offense on schedule, 28th of 32. The gap is boom-bust arithmetic. Miami ripped a 10+ yard run 13.0% of the time (4th) while also getting stuffed for nothing or worse on 21.5% of carries, 2nd-most in football. The other high-YPC teams (Buffalo, Chicago) pair the average with top-3 success rates. Miami's average is one long Achane sprint papering over three dead downs.

Why it matters. Folklore reads yards per carry as run-game quality, but one 60-yard breakaway can carry a whole afternoon of stuffed runs on its back. Success rate measures the thing an offense actually needs snap to snap, staying ahead of the sticks, and Miami failed at it while looking great on the average. This is why the run game never bailed out the offense in close games: the boom plays are real, but you cannot schedule them for 3rd and 2.

The Miami blueprint, and its cracks

Two years ago Miami had the NFL's deadliest deep ball. Now it's one of the worst.

Trend

Miami deep passing (20+ air yards) by year, with NFL rank (reg season)

Season	Deep att	Comp %	EPA/att	Comp % rank
2020	51	47.1%	+0.667	5th
2021	52	42.3%	+0.770	5th
2022	76	46.1%	+0.772	3rd
2023	65	50.8%	+1.014	2nd
2024	44	25.0%	-0.127	30th
2025	46	28.3%	-0.052	29th

Worst deep-ball completion %, 2024-2025 combined (reg season)

Rank	Team	Comp %	Deep att	EPA/att
32	CLE	25.4%	122	-0.365
31	NO	26.3%	152	+0.058
30	MIA	26.7%	90	-0.089
29	KC	27.6%	127	+0.303
28	NYJ	30.0%	110	+0.221

From 2020-2023 the Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle moon-ball was the most efficient deep shot in football: Miami ranked top-5 in deep completion % four straight years and posted the NFL's single best deep-ball EPA across 2022-2023 (+0.884 per attempt on 141 tries). Then it vanished. In 2024-2025 they completed just 26.7% of deep balls (30th), with negative EPA, and they nearly halved the attempts (76 in 2022 down to 46 in 2025). The track team forgot how to hit the home run.

Why it matters. Miami's entire offensive identity was vertical speed stressing safeties, which opened everything underneath. When the deep connection collapsed, defenses stopped respecting the top of the route tree and squeezed the short game the offense was built to set up. The drop coincides with Tua Tagovailoa's mounting availability problems and a fading Hill, and it is the clearest statistical reason the offense fell from 4th in 2023 to 22nd in 2025.

No offense in football falls off a cliff after halftime quite like Miami's.

Anomaly

Biggest 1st-quarter to 3rd-quarter offensive EPA falloff, 2023-2025 (reg season)

Rank	Team	1Q EPA/play	3Q EPA/play	Decline
1	LV	-0.084	-0.243	0.159
2	MIA	+0.077	-0.077	0.154
3	HOU	-0.004	-0.131	0.127
4	TEN	-0.030	-0.146	0.116
5	IND	+0.099	-0.016	0.115

Miami offense by quarter, 2023-2025 (reg season)

Quarter	Off EPA/play	NFL rank
1st	+0.077	8th
2nd	+0.041	14th
3rd	-0.077	24th
4th	+0.004	10th

Miami scripts a great start: the offense is 8th in the NFL in the 1st quarter (+0.077 EPA per play), the opening-15 working as designed. Then the third quarter arrives and it dies, dropping to -0.077, a 0.154 EPA swing that is the 2nd-largest post-halftime collapse in football. Of the league's biggest fallers, Miami is the only team that starts clearly in the green and ends clearly in the red. The other side adjusts at the break, and Miami has no answer.

Why it matters. Scripted offenses live and die by the opening plan; when the chess match resets at halftime, the team that adjusts wins the second half. Miami winning the 1st quarter but losing the 3rd is the fingerprint of a play-caller who front-loads his best material and gets out-coached after the break. It is a big reason a team that often leads early keeps losing close games, and it is the pattern the incoming staff most needs to break.

Miami's defense is great in space and terrible at the goal line. Speed doesn't tackle.

Anomaly

Deep balls allowed (20+ air yards), 2023-2025 (reg season, lower EPA = better)

Rank	Team	Comp % allowed	EPA allowed/att
1	PHI	29.9%	+0.160
8	NYJ	29.7%	+0.239
9	MIA	36.2%	+0.268
10	LA	34.5%	+0.273

Red-zone TD % allowed, 2023-2025 (reg season, lower = better)

Rank	Team	RZ TD % allowed
28	CIN	21.3%
29	CAR	21.4%
30	MIA	21.6%
31	DAL	22.7%
32	CLE	23.4%

Give Miami's defense a 60-yard field and it holds up: 9th in the NFL at limiting deep passing (+0.268 EPA allowed per attempt), with the team's speed and range erasing shots over the top. Shrink the field to 20 yards and it falls apart: opponents score touchdowns on 21.6% of red-zone snaps, 30th of 32. It is the opposite of a bend-but-don't-break unit. Miami defends grass and surrenders the goal line, exactly the profile of a fast, light defense that can run with anyone but can't win a phone booth.

Why it matters. The shrunk red-zone field neutralizes speed and rewards size and physicality at the point of attack, which is precisely where a finesse defense is most exposed. Miami can chase down explosives in open space yet lose the leverage and power battles near the goal line, so drives that should end in field goals end in touchdowns. That gap between yards allowed and points allowed quietly loses games even when the box score looks fine.

Five backs in football carried a true three-down load in 2025. De'Von Achane is one of them.

Rare

Every back with 200+ carries and 60+ catches (2025, reg season)

Player	Carries	Catches	Targets
Christian McCaffrey	311	102	129
Bijan Robinson	288	79	103
Jahmyr Gibbs	243	77	94
De'Von Achane	238	67	85
Chase Brown	233	69	89

The 2025 season had exactly five running backs who cleared 200 carries and 60 catches, and Miami's De'Von Achane made the list with 238 carries, 67 catches, and 85 targets. That is the full three-down job: early-down runner, passing-down outlet, and the one Dolphin the offense's boom plays reliably run through. On a roster searching for an identity after the deep ball collapsed, the offense's most complete weapon is the one they hand it to and throw it to.

Why it matters. Backs who genuinely do both jobs are structurally valuable because they hide intent: a defense reading Miami's personnel gets no run-pass tell when Achane is on the field. History says four of five teams in any given year simply do not have one of these players. The flip side for Miami is concentration risk, because the boom-bust run game and the screen game both route through the same set of legs.

The travel problem

When it drops below 40, the Dolphins don't just lose, they get blown out. They are 0-10.

Rare

Worst NFL record in sub-40F games, 2018-2025 (reg season, min 5 games)

Team	Games	Record	Win %	Avg margin
MIA	10	0-10	0.0%	-17.6
ATL	5	0-5	0.0%	-13.6
JAX	5	1-4	20.0%	-4.4
NYJ	17	4-13	23.5%	-10.4
CAR	8	2-6	25.0%	-7.5

Miami by kickoff temperature, 2018-2025 (reg season)

Temp	Record	Avg margin	Off EPA/play	Def EPA allowed
70F or warmer	43-24	+1.9	+0.011	+0.000
40F or colder	0-10	-17.6	-0.137	+0.198

Ten times since 2018 the Dolphins have played in sub-40F weather. They lost every one, by an average of 17.6 points, the worst cold-weather record in the NFL by margin among winless teams. The unit that hums in the heat (43-24, +1.9 margin in 70F+ games) simply stops working in the cold: the offense craters from +0.011 to -0.137 EPA per play and the defense bleeds +0.198 EPA per play. Every one of those ten games was on the road, because Miami never hosts a game that cold.

Why it matters. A dome-and-sun roster built on speed and timing is a different team in a Buffalo or Pittsburgh December. The 0-10 isn't a small-sample fluke, it spans seven seasons and shows up on both sides of the ball at once, which is the signature of a structural mismatch (conditioning, footing, ball handling) rather than variance. It also frames every cold January road trip as a stacked deck against them.

The most home-dependent offense in the NFL: Miami is a different team the moment it leaves South Florida.

Split

Most home-reliant offenses, road-minus-home EPA/play, 2018-2025 (reg season)

Tilt rank	Team	Home off	Away off	Road minus home
32 (most home-dependent)	MIA	+0.004	-0.045	-0.050
31	IND	+0.022	-0.022	-0.044
30	NYJ	-0.107	-0.142	-0.035
29	CIN	+0.021	-0.012	-0.033
28	CHI	-0.022	-0.049	-0.027

Miami home vs away, 2018-2025 (reg season)

Site	Record	Off EPA/play	Def EPA allowed	Avg margin
Home	43-24	+0.004	-0.003	+2.1
Away	23-43	-0.045	+0.040	-6.1

Across the league, the gap between a team's home and road offense is usually small. Miami's is the largest in the wrong direction: their offense runs +0.004 EPA per play at home but -0.045 on the road, the biggest home-to-road drop of all 32 teams. The record splits in half with it: 43-24 at home, 23-43 away. Both sides of the ball sag on the road (the defense also goes from -0.003 to +0.040 EPA allowed), turning a +2.1 home margin into a -6.1 road one. The friendly confines aren't a small edge here, they're the whole offense.

Why it matters. Home-field advantage normally lives in the defense and crowd noise, not in the offense getting measurably worse on the road. Miami inverts that, which points at the same speed-and-timing identity that the temperature splits expose: a finesse offense that needs ideal conditions (turf, climate, comfort) and degrades when it travels into hostile, often colder venues. It makes Miami a strong home team with a road profile that keeps letting the season down.

The record books

Miami hasn't won a playoff game since the 2000 season, the longest active wait in the NFL.

Milestone

Longest active playoff-win droughts (season of last playoff win)

Team	Last playoff win	Seasons since
MIA	2000	25
LV	2002	23
NYJ	2010	15
ARI	2015	10
CAR	2015	10

Every Miami playoff game since that win

Season	Round	Result
2001	Wild Card	L 20-3 at home vs BAL
2008	Wild Card	L 27-9 at home vs BAL
2016	Wild Card	L 30-12 at PIT
2022	Wild Card	L 34-31 at BUF
2023	Wild Card	L 26-7 at KC

Miami's last playoff win was the 2000 wild card round, 23-17 over Indianapolis in Miami. Since then: five playoff trips, five losses, none of them closer than the 2022 shootout in Buffalo. Twenty-five seasons is the longest active playoff-win drought in football, two ahead of the Raiders and a full decade ahead of everyone but the Jets. Every quarterback, coach, and rebuild since Marino has arrived carrying the same unfinished sentence.

Why it matters. Playoff appearance droughts get the headlines, but the win drought is the deeper cut: Miami has kept reaching January and kept leaving empty-handed, which is its own specific kind of organizational scar. The list of losses also has a pattern, the three most recent all came on the road in January conditions, tying the drought directly to the road and cold-weather profiles elsewhere in this set. It is the single stat a 2026 turnaround would be measured against.

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